Drew Stubbs....

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

They don't have to do with HR power. But they are still doubles for everyone in the league and doubles are still valuable power to have, especially at a weak hitting position like C, SS or CF.

Of those top 20, 15 were no higher than 64th this season in doubles. Carl Crawford has 4 triples and 8 doubles. Explain to me his power. He's a speed guy. Brian Roberts is a speed guy. In fact, Roberts might be MLB's best comp for Stubbs in a best case scenario.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Of those top 20, 15 were no higher than 64th this season in doubles. Carl Crawford has 4 triples and 8 doubles. Explain to me his power. He's a speed guy. Brian Roberts is a speed guy. In fact, Roberts might be MLB's best comp for Stubbs in a best case scenario.

Stubbs has 4 triples and 16 doubles.... quite a bit of difference there between Stubbs and Crawford in the doubles spectrum. This year Crawford has seen his power sapped. In the past years though he has gone 30 doubles, 15 3B and 14 HR. Thats not Dunn power, but its certainly not bad power either.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Stubbs has 4 triples and 16 doubles.... quite a bit of difference there between Stubbs and Crawford in the doubles spectrum. This year Crawford has seen his power sapped. In the past years though he has gone 30 doubles, 15 3B and 14 HR. Thats not Dunn power, but its certainly not bad power either.

It's not anything like power. He turns Casey like singles into doubles with his speed. He turns normal doubles to triples with his speed. 66 career HR's in 6 seasons is not power. Stubbs has a low SLG. period. He has contact issues. period. Over the last 2 months his BA has hovered around .200.

His LD% means squat right now. You pointed out Francisco as a guy on the Sarasota team with a higher LD%, but Francisco has a TON of power. With a modicum of patience at the plate, his OBP will gradually climb because he'll punish mistakes and pitchers will know that. Stubbs doesn't punish the ball. The question is can he learn to do that? Physically i believe he has the body for it. Not Jay Bruce or even Francisco power, but he needs to be a 15-20 HR threat soon, because this ain't the 80's and the Reds don't play on turf anymore.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ryan Braun hit 7 HR in 230 at bats in the FSL at age 22. He went to AA and hit 15 there in in 4 more at bats. The next year he hit 44 HR between AAA and MLB. How did 7 HR one year in 230 AB's in the FSL translate to 44 a year later in AAA and MLB? Magic, thats right. The FSL makes guys look like they aren't overly good hitters a whole lot.

Prior to that Braun posted a .585 SLG in the Pioneer League and a .645 SLG in the Sally League. He also slugged circles around Stubbs during his college career. Stubbs has posted SLGs of .400 and 421 prior to this season. Not that I expect you to recognize it, but this is yet another awful comparison on your part. I fully agree that sometimes players suffer exception performances in the FSL. The problem with Stubbs is this isn't an exception. It's what he's been doing since he got drafted.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Magically when they leave they become good hitters again.

Stubbs has never been a good hitter (especially against RHPs). Him suddenly turning into one would be magic.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

XBH is a bogus metric? Hmm, when did those stop counting? Here is to hoping everyone turns into Norris Hopper. Stubbs is getting his share of XBH's (up from last year btw) in a league that squanders power. That is my point. Its a valid one whether you want to believe it or not.

Your use of XBH was bogus. Stubbs has more PAs than most players in the Reds system. The list of Reds minor leaguers who have 250+ PAs and fewer XBH than Stubbs (282 PA) - Tonys Gutierrez and Dennis Phipps. He actually ranks toward the bottom of the list if you compare him to his PA peers (including all four such players who've been on the Sarasota roster). Counting stats are fine if you're actually talking about something where they're germane. Unfortunately when you're talking about wildly variant PA totals, counting stats don't mean a lot. Of course you were just using XBH as a way of ignoring what his SLG is screaming at you.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Please explain to me how you can tell he is hitting weak liners. I would love to hear it.

Real simple, no SLG. Francisco hits LDs and he's got SLG. Jay Bruce hits LDs and he's got SLG. Todd Frazier hits LDs and he's got SLG. Chris Valaika hits LDs and he's got SLG. Also, all of these have had, or have, SLG in Sarasota. Now maybe he's not hitting weak liners, but if that isn't your first question when you put his LD% into perspective with his overall performance and the performance of other top bats who've been through Sarasota, then you're just willfully not asking tough questions. What he's doing unquestionably is NOT translating into actual power. Analytically speaking, the qualitative value of those LDs ought to be the first place you look to determine why that is.

Plus, this is nothing new with Stubbs. He came into the organization well known for making inefficient contact and he's managed not to turn LDs into SLG at previous stops. Seriously, at some point you ought to spot the trend.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not at all. The difference between the two players is that Francisco has more HR power and he hits more fly balls. Francisco is a guy who can legitimately hit 35 HR in the major leagues. Drew Stubbs isn't that guy and no one is claiming he is. However trying to say that because they have similar line drive rates means its a weak thing to bring up because Francisco has more power than him isn't logical.

Ah, so Ozzie Guillen did have power.

Or, crazy idea here, the real signifier of players who hit the ball "with authority" are those who hit productive FBs on top of productive LDs, making this whole insertion of LD% into a discussion of whether a guy has power a complete dead end.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You seem to be under the misconception that 26% line drive rates are weak unless you are hitting home runs and that the Florida State League doesn't have any real depression of power numbers at all despite that facts that show otherwise. You seem to be refusing to admit to the facts in front of you.

There's a real simple way to gauge how much power a player has. It's called SLG. You could try ISOp too if you wanted. Stubbs stinks in both areas. I know you specialize in overlooking larger pieces of information in the search for sunnier subsets. I mean, didn't Stubbs turn a corner in the 2nd half of last year, guaranteeing that he'd be well ahead of where he is at this juncture? And Homer Bailey is a great pitcher when he's got a healthy groin, right?

Yet the stats which flat out tell you whether a player IS hitting for consistent power unmistakably demonstrate that Stubbs is not and that, to date, he never has.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

It's not anything like power. He turns Casey like singles into doubles with his speed. He turns normal doubles to triples with his speed. 66 career HR's in 6 seasons is not power. Stubbs has a low SLG. period. He has contact issues. period. Over the last 2 months his BA has hovered around .200.

Guys don't turn singles into doubles too often.... even the really fast ones. As for his BA over the last two months, its been unlucky. As for his batting average since May rolled around, you are right... but lets look at what he has done at the plate since then:

Line drive rate - 23%
Walk rate - 18%
Strikeout rate - 23%
BABIP - .293

So a guy with a 23% line drive rate is posting a .293 BABIP huh? Yeah, thats likely to be considered bad luck when his suggested BABIP should be at least .350 (BABIP= LD% + .120) and maybe even slightly higher considering his speed likely gives him an extra hit or two on an infield ground ball most guys wouldn't get. So yeah, his BABIP has been unlucky which coincides with an ugly average over that time.... but if Drew Stubbs can keep up a 23% line drive rate, an 18% walk rate and strike out 23% of the time he steps to the plate, he will be a successful player. Not even factoring in slugging percentage/batting average, those ratios over 500 PA would lead to roughly (using the suggested BABIP formula above) to a 90 walk and 115 strikeout season with a .386 OBP if he hit 0 HR. For every HR he hit, his OBP would go up just a little bit. If he continues doing exactly what he has done through May and June he will be fine as things go his way.

His LD% means squat right now. You pointed out Francisco as a guy on the Sarasota team with a higher LD%, but Francisco has a TON of power. With a modicum of patience at the plate, his OBP will gradually climb because he'll punish mistakes and pitchers will know that. Stubbs doesn't punish the ball. The question is can he learn to do that? Physically i believe he has the body for it. Not Jay Bruce or even Francisco power, but he needs to be a 15-20 HR threat soon, because this ain't the 80's and the Reds don't play on turf anymore.

No, his high LD% means that he is hitting the ball hard and that his average will reflect that as things begin to normalize themselves. Continue with a high LD% and you will continue seeing good numbers.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

Prior to that Braun posted a .585 SLG in the Pioneer League and a .645 SLG in the Sally League. He also slugged circles around Stubbs during his college career. Stubbs has posted SLGs of .400 and 421 prior to this season. Not that I expect you to recognize it, but this is yet another awful comparison on your part. I fully agree that sometimes players suffer exception performances in the FSL. The problem with Stubbs is this isn't an exception. It's what he's been doing since he got drafted.

Ah, so there is no possible way that Stubbs has indeed improved his game overall and gasp, maybe even his power some, but because he never did it before its not likely to happen? Sorry, I don't buy into that. Is Drew Stubbs Ryan Braun? Absolutely not. The fact is though, that is just one example of a guy who seemingly couldn't hit for power in the FSL. He had a .160 isolated power in the FSL, but then exploded for a .286 isolated power number in the Southern League. Stubbs currently has a .140 isolated power number in the FSL.... a mere 20 points from what Ryan Braun had. What if Stubbs gets even half the boost that Braun did by heading to the Southern League? Well then he has a .200 isolated power and is some slugger all of a sudden. You are writing it off that because he hasn't he can't. I am suggesting that Stubbs has indeed improved quite a bit but we aren't seeing it in the stat line because its the FSL.

I am not going to waste my time responding to the rest of your post because everything I need to say I have said above.

[TRF]

doug, he hasn't produced. period. SLG tells the story. Francisco was the perfect example of how misleading LD% is. nothing about the stat says power. it's completely nebulous. a soft liner to 2B is counted. That isn't power. A screaming liner past the 2B is power, and it translates directly to his SLG. And SLG is a stat that Stubbs has NEVER dominated in. Never. This is year three of you defending the top pick, like you did with Bailey.

Now I'm going to make an observation and a suggestion. The observation is you love the Reds so much you look for light in the darkest of tunnels. Especially in regards to the top picks since you began following the Reds. You have often pointed out that the Reds scouts must be seeing something the rest of us don't. I understand you speak to scouts somewhat regularly, which I find incredibly cool. You fail to take into account that they can and do make mistakes. That's just my opinion.

Now for my suggestion. Don't be such a homer. It's ok to not like a pick AFTER it's been made too. I get that you didn't want Stubbs. It's ok to take a look at his body of work, appreciate what he does well, defense, and critique what he does poorly, hit.

M2 countered your argument completely, and your response was the equivalent of taking your ball and going home. When I started on these boards my stat experience was limited to say the least. I'm no where near the level of M2, Steel, RMR or even you. But I can pull back and see the larger picture. That picture right now says that Stubbs was a bad, bad pick. His performance is making it worse. And worst of all, Lincecum's performance seals the deal.

[princeton]

Jeff Bagwell hit a lot of HRs in the majors; never much in the minors. Kirby Puckett, same deal.

But Bags and Puckett were very good hitters in the minors, unlike Stubbs. high BA, high slugging even if they weren't hitting HRs. as they got stronger, more of their doubles became HRs much to the surprise of Lou Gorman...

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ah, so there is no possible way that Stubbs has indeed improved his game overall and gasp, maybe even his power some, but because he never did it before its not likely to happen?

It all sounds good until you note that he's not slugging as well as Chris Heisey (career .425 SLG). Stubbs currently ranks 30th among FSL qualifiers in SLG. 30th in the SL would net you you .422, currently held by Ronnie Merrill and Bryan Byrne. Who? Exactly.

You can argue up is down all you want, but the problem you keeping running into is that Stubbs lacks even comparative strength in the SLG department. His teammates and league peers (most of whom play in less friendly hitting parks) are outpacing him.

You also suffer from verb tense problems. I'm saying he IS not slugging and that he HAS not slugged in the past. Whether he will is another question entirely. Though to answer your question, those factors given his age do make it unlikely that he will ever feature much power in his game in the future. You are aware that most players who are 23 with a career .412 SLG don't ever develop significant power, right? That doesn't mean Stubbs can't be an exception to the rule, but I'm not inclined to listen to the speculation of someone who can't even admit that he's got a SLG problem as to whether he can make that jump.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

doug, he hasn't produced. period. SLG tells the story. Francisco was the perfect example of how misleading LD% is. nothing about the stat says power. it's completely nebulous. a soft liner to 2B is counted. That isn't power. A screaming liner past the 2B is power, and it translates directly to his SLG. And SLG is a stat that Stubbs has NEVER dominated in. Never. This is year three of you defending the top pick, like you did with Bailey.

I think we are having some misunderstanding here. Line drive % isn't indicative of power, its indicative of making solid contact. Drew is making solid contact this year, something he hasn't done in the past. He is also playing in a league that drastically depletes guys power throughout the entire history of the league. My contention isn't that Stubbs is going to ever hit 25 HR, just that his season that is, is much better than it looks at first glance because of how he is going about it. He won't ever dominate a slugging line, the guy is a centerfielder. Centerfielders who dominate the slugging line are first ballot hall of famers named Griffey, Snider and Mays. Drew isn't that guy, never will be and never was said to be. It has nothing to do with defending him becuase he was a top pick, it has everything to do with defending him for being lambasted for things he shouldn't be lambasted for.

Now I'm going to make an observation and a suggestion. The observation is you love the Reds so much you look for light in the darkest of tunnels. Especially in regards to the top picks since you began following the Reds. You have often pointed out that the Reds scouts must be seeing something the rest of us don't. I understand you speak to scouts somewhat regularly, which I find incredibly cool. You fail to take into account that they can and do make mistakes. That's just my opinion.

Even I thought they made a mistake when they took Stubbs, so I think you are labeling me as something I am not. I do look for the bright side of things becuase most often others don't, especially with prospects when guys are young and can change with the snap of the fingers if the right thing clicks. There is a GIANT difference between Drew Stubbs 2006/2007 and Drew Stubbs 2008. A lot of people are not seeing it.

Now for my suggestion. Don't be such a homer. It's ok to not like a pick AFTER it's been made too. I get that you didn't want Stubbs. It's ok to take a look at his body of work, appreciate what he does well, defense, and critique what he does poorly, hit.

Drew hasn't hit poorly this year though and thats the point. A lot of people are overlooking what he has done this year by simply looking at the statline (in the FSL nonetheless) and not at how he has gone about having that statline and how those things could transfer into future productivity at higher levels.

M2 countered your argument completely, and your response was the equivalent of taking your ball and going home. When I started on these boards my stat experience was limited to say the least. I'm no where near the level of M2, Steel, RMR or even you. But I can pull back and see the larger picture. That picture right now says that Stubbs was a bad, bad pick. His performance is making it worse. And worst of all, Lincecum's performance seals the deal.

I didn't take my ball and go home, but the rest of his argument stems on the belief that he doesn't think Stubbs can do this or that because he hasn't and others had so that is why they did. My belief is that Drew Stubbs is different now than he was from previous years at the plate but we aren't seeing it fully because of the league he is in and once he gets out of the league, it will show itself some more.

As for the pick, good/bad/otherwise.... doesn't matter at this point. Its done and it has been done for over 2 years now.

[M2]

Originally Posted by princeton

But Bags and Puckett were very good hitters in the minors, unlike Stubbs. high BA, high slugging even if they weren't hitting HRs. as they got stronger, more of their doubles became HRs much to the surprise of Lou Gorman...

Good points. They were also MLB rookies at Stubbs' age. Interestingly, they were what Stubbs was drafted to be (or at least should have been drafted to be).

[TRF]

Line drive % isn't indicative of power, its indicative of making solid contact.

no, it's indicative of hitting line drives. soft and hard. His SLG is what determines power and solid contact. LD% is mostly an incomplete stat as it tells us really nothing except that the ball was too low to be a fly ball and too high to be a groundball.

[M2]

Originally Posted by TRF

no, it's indicative of hitting line drives. soft and hard. His SLG is what determines power and solid contact. LD% is mostly an incomplete stat as it tells us really nothing except that the ball was to low to be a fly ball and too high to be a groundball.

Bingo.

In fact LDs might be the exact wrong thing for a guy like Stubbs, not enough lift to net him power and not putting it on the ground enough to utilize his speed.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

It all sounds good until you note that he's not slugging as well as Chris Heisey (career .425 SLG). Stubbs currently ranks 30th among FSL qualifiers in SLG. 30th in the SL would net you you .422, currently held by Ronnie Merrill and Bryan Byrne. Who? Exactly.

You can argue up is down all you want, but the problem you keeping running into is that Stubbs lacks even comparative strength in the SLG department. His teammates and league peers (most of whom play in less friendly hitting parks) are outpacing him.

You also suffer from verb tense problems. I'm saying he IS not slugging and that he HAS not slugged in the past. Whether he will is another question entirely. Though to answer your question, those factors given his age do make it unlikely that he will ever feature much power in his game in the future. You are aware that most players who are 23 with a career .412 SLG don't ever develop significant power, right? That doesn't mean Stubbs can't be an exception to the rule, but I'm not inclined to listen to the speculation of someone who can't even admit that he's got a SLG problem as to whether he can make that jump.

All I am saying is that his slugging right now is likely a whole lot stronger in every other league in the minors than it appears in the FSL. I don't think he will ever slug .500, but I don't think .450 is out of the question in his prime either, especially given GABP. Its also interesting to note that once he gets out of Sarasota he has a .900 OPS on the year and a .308/.430/.470 line. He isn't tearing the ball up with that .470 slugging, but the ballpark certainly is doing its share of damage.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

All I am saying is that his slugging right now is likely a whole lot stronger in every other league in the minors than it appears in the FSL. I don't think he will ever slug .500, but I don't think .450 is out of the question in his prime either, especially given GABP. Its also interesting to note that once he gets out of Sarasota he has a .900 OPS on the year and a .308/.430/.470 line. He isn't tearing the ball up with that .470 slugging, but the ballpark certainly is doing its share of damage.

It's not damaging Francisco. three years younger and has a .866 OPS at home.

I think it's because he's SLG .538.