Looking (Really Far) Ahead: The Next Rule Five Draft

[camisadelgolf]

Well, maybe this can get some constructive discussion. Here is a list of players the Reds would need to consider protecting for the next rule five draft. I figure some of these guys will be locks to be added to the 40-man roster (i.e. Matt Maloney), but then there are borderline players (i.e. Adam Rosales). What do you all think? Who would you protect? Keep in mind that each addition would require dropping someone already on the 40-man roster, so it's not realistic to add 20 of them.

Drew M. Anderson
Leo Astorga
James Avery
Angel Cabrera
Efrain Contreras
Mike DeJesus
Misael DeJesus
Raul De La Cruz
Chris Denove
Eric Eymann
Carlos Fisher
Ramon Geronimo
Rafael Gonzalez
Mike Griffin
Sean Henry
Sam LeCure
Jake Long
Matt Maloney
Robert Manuel
Junior Martinez
Ruben Medina
Carlos Mendez
James Morris
Gustavo Omana
Logan Ondrusek
Denis Phipps
Juan Rafael
Adam Rosales
Jesus Ruiz
Hector Santana
Humberto Sosa
Cody Strait
B.J. Szymanski
Justin Tordi
Phil Valiquette
Pedro Viola
Terrell Young

POTENTIAL MINOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS:
Jon Adkins
Henry Arias
Kevin Barker
Luis Bolivar
Alvin Colina
Shaun Cumberland
Jerry Gil
Andy Green
Tonys Gutierrez
Mike Hrynio
Justin James
Chris Kroski
Justin Mallett
Luis Montano
Adam Pettyjohn
Yuber Rodriguez
Alex Smit
Camilo Vazquez

[dougdirt]

Those guys can't all be right. There is no way Travis Wood is up for a Rule V draft yet. He was drafted in 2005.

[Joseph]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Those guys can't all be right. There is no way Travis Wood is up for a Rule V draft yet. He was drafted in 2005.

Agreed. Lecure and others aren't eligible yet unless I misunderstand the rule.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Those guys can't all be right. There is no way Travis Wood is up for a Rule V draft yet. He was drafted in 2005.

You're right--a lot of those guys, including Travis Wood, aren't eligible because they were drafted/signed before they turned 19 years old. I'll edit the list.

[11larkin11]

Efrain Contreras really has to be kept this early? Wow.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Joseph

Agreed. Lecure and others aren't eligible yet unless I misunderstand the rule.

Last year, the Reds needed to add Craig Tatum and Paul Janish from their 2004 draft to keep them protected from the rule five. Unfortunately, Adam Rosales, Matt Maloney, et al. will already be eligible.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

Efrain Contreras really has to be kept this early? Wow.

Believe it or not, he was signed by the Reds in 2004.

[RedsUp]

Valiquette was signed at 17 in 2004
With the draft 5 rules (5 years exemption, if signed before age 19) he should not be eligible before 2009

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by RedsUp

Valiquette was signed at 17 in 2004
With the draft 5 rules (5 years exemption, if signed before age 19) he should not be eligible before 2009

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 = his five years of exemption

Perhaps it was a new rule with the most recent bargaining agreement, but my understanding is that the first year you were drafted, even if you only had a few weeks (or less) as a professional, it counts as your first year of exemption. If that's not the case, then many teams have recently wasted an option year on a lot of players.

[Joseph]

Here is the existing 40 man. Remember guys on the 60 day DL don't take up a slot on the 40 man, but would have to when figuring this all out for next year.

40-Man Roster
  	Pitchers 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB 	 
  	41 Jeremy Affeldt 	L/L 	6-4 	225 	06/06/79 	
  	61 Bronson Arroyo 	R/R 	6-5 	195 	02/24/77 	
  	* 34 Homer Bailey 	R/R 	6-4 	205 	05/03/86 	
  	* 31 Matt Belisle 	R/R 	6-3 	230 	06/06/80 	
  	45 Bill Bray 	L/L 	6-3 	220 	06/05/83 	
  	51 Jared Burton 	R/R 	6-5 	230 	06/02/81 	
  	* 56 Todd Coffey 	R/R 	6-5 	240 	09/09/80 	
  	48 Francisco Cordero 	R/R 	6-3 	240 	05/11/75 	
  	47 Johnny Cueto 	R/R 	5-10 	185 	02/15/86 	
  	* 33 Josh Fogg 	R/R 	6-0 	205 	12/13/76 	  15-day Disabled List
  	39 Aaron Harang 	R/R 	6-7 	275 	05/09/78 	
  	57 Mike Lincoln 	R/R 	6-2 	215 	04/10/75 	
  	** 37 Bobby Livingston 	L/L 	6-3 	205 	09/03/82 	  60-day Disabled List
  	38 Gary Majewski 	R/R 	6-1 	220 	02/26/80 	
  	* 58 Marcus McBeth 	R/R 	6-2 	195 	08/23/80 	
  	** 50 Kent Mercker 	L/L 	6-2 	205 	02/01/68 	  60-day Disabled List
  	* 73 Tyler Pelland 	R/L 	6-0 	210 	10/09/83 	
  	* 74 Ramon Ramirez 	R/R 	5-10 	170 	09/16/82 	
  	53 Daryl Thompson 	R/R 	6-0 	180 	11/02/85 	
  	36 Edinson Volquez 	R/R 	6-0 	200 	07/03/83 	
  	25 David Weathers 	R/R 	6-3 	235 	09/25/69 	
  	Catchers 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB 	 
  	9 Paul Bako 	L/R 	6-2 	205 	06/20/72 	
  	* 65 Ryan Hanigan 	R/R 	6-0 	195 	08/16/80 	
  	26 David Ross 	R/R 	6-2 	240 	03/19/77 	
  	* 71 Craig Tatum 	R/R 	6-0 	225 	03/18/83 	
  	17 Javier Valentin 	S/R 	5-10 	215 	09/19/75 	
  	Infielders 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB 	 
  	* 54 Jolbert Cabrera 	R/R 	6-1 	215 	12/08/72 	  15-day Disabled List
  	28 Edwin Encarnacion 	R/R 	6-1 	215 	01/07/83 	
  	** 2 Alex Gonzalez 	R/R 	6-0 	200 	02/15/77 	  60-day Disabled List
  	* 15 Jerry Hairston 	R/R 	5-10 	185 	05/29/76 	  15-day Disabled List
  	7 Paul Janish 	R/R 	6-2 	190 	10/12/82 	
  	27 Jeff Keppinger 	R/R 	6-0 	180 	04/21/80 	
  	4 Brandon Phillips 	R/R 	6-0 	195 	06/28/81 	
  	19 Joey Votto 	L/R 	6-3 	220 	09/10/83 	
  	Outfielders 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB 	 
  	32 Jay Bruce 	L/L 	6-3 	205 	04/03/87 	
  	* 63 Chris Dickerson 	L/L 	6-3 	225 	04/10/82 	
  	44 Adam Dunn 	L/R 	6-6 	275 	11/09/79 	
  	* 6 Ryan Freel 	R/R 	5-10 	185 	03/08/76 	  15-day Disabled List
  	3 Ken Griffey 	L/L 	6-3 	230 	11/21/69 	
  	30 Norris Hopper 	R/R 	5-10 	210 	03/24/79 	
  	23 Corey Patterson 	L/R 	5-9 	175 	08/13/79

The way I see it we'll lose the following players at the end of the season....

Pitchers:

Mercker, Weathers, Affeldt, Fogg, Lincoln...all free agents.

Coffey, Macbeth and Pelland are subject for removal.

Up to 8 spots there then.

Infielders:

Cabrera and Hairston [though Hairston may be back just to keep our Junior quota up.]

2 spots

Outfield:

Patterson, Dunn, Griffey

3 Spots

Total of 13 +/- open slots. Livingston and Gonzalez both will need slots after coming off the 60 day meaning 11 +/-.

You'll need room for free agents as well, and Walt could re-sign some of these guys as well.

[camisadelgolf]

Yeah, I figure Javier Valentin, Paul Bako, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., Corey Patterson, Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Kent Mercker, Mike Lincoln, and Dave Weathers all gone. I'd make Shaun Cumberland and Tonys Gutierrez September call-ups and then option them during spring training. Beyond that, I'd add Adam Rosales, Matt Maloney, and as many players as possible, depending on free agency, between the following: Sam LeCure, Pedro Viola, Robert Manuel, Carlos Fisher, Sean Henry, and Mike Griffin. Aside from Dunn, I would consider that to be a lot of addition by subtraction.

[Joseph]

I completely missed the catchers. I'd wager all three will be gone, but I'd not be surprised to see Bako back. Ross could be the one back if he gets back to 06 levels offensively.

I think Cumberland is on the rise and should be kept as you suggest. Maloney is serviceable and should be added too.

Manuel has exactly the type arm that gets drafted, so they need to decide on him if he's worth the risk or not. If not, he's assuredly gone I'd say.

I'm with you on the addition by subtraction, but for years now I've gone through similar exercises in my mind, about all the new faces we'll see come spring training, and the complete removal of 'junk' on the roster that we'll see come the offseason....only to see OBrien, Krivsky, Bowden etal bring back 2/3s of the 'junk'.

Let's hope Jocketty is different and will rid us of the junk and at least let things start from scratch.

[TRF]

If Pelland is exposed, you can bet he'll get taken. He's far enough down the depth chart with the Reds to not necessarily be missed, but at an advanced enough level to not be a huge risk for the claiming team. plus he's LH and can touch 95-96 with his FB.

[RedlegJake]

Most of these guys would be real reaches to have to keep on the 25 man all season, even if you stretched it with a DL stint. A few, like Pelland and Manuel as Joseph and TRF alluded would likely be claimed. With the system being fed new draftees, minor league FAs and the like, this is not that big a deal. Tonys Gutierrez could help a big league right now. His lack of power (for a 1st baseman) probably keeps him from being a regular, though, but the guy has always been an on base machine.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by TRF

If Pelland is exposed, you can bet he'll get taken. He's far enough down the depth chart with the Reds to not necessarily be missed, but at an advanced enough level to not be a huge risk for the claiming team. plus he's LH and can touch 95-96 with his FB.

Pelland would have to pass through waivers to be taken off the 40-man roster, and seeing as how he has options left, I'd bet that someone would grab him before the opportunity came up.