Dunn vs. Howard

[CaiGuy]

Ryan Howard has a line of .234/.324/.508 with 28 home runs and 129 k's.

Adam Dunn has a line of .228/.381/.544 with 27 home runs and 100 k's.

Howard has 84 RBI's. (first in the NL)

Dunn has 60 RBI's.

What is the moral of the story?
(Hint: Howard plays for the Phillies and Dunn plays for the Reds)

[BuckeyeRedleg]

RC:

#33 Dunn 63.5
#42 Howard 60.0

RC/27:

#20 Dunn 7.26
#75 Howard 5.61

VORP:
#44 Dunn 25.0
#97 Howard 14.9

[Highlifeman21]

Ryan Howard is leading the universe in strikeouts.

Adam Dunn, last time I checked, is leading the universe in walks.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by CaiGuy

Ryan Howard has a line of .234/.324/.508 with 28 home runs and 129 k's.

Adam Dunn has a line of .228/.381/.544 with 27 home runs and 100 k's.

Howard has 84 RBI's. (first in the NL)

Dunn has 60 RBI's.

What is the moral of the story?
(Hint: Howard plays for the Phillies and Dunn plays for the Reds)

Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in. Put Howard on the Reds batting in Dunn's spot, and he doesn't have anywhere near 84 RBI. Put Dunn on the Phillies batting Howard's spot, and he's far beyond 60 RBI.

A prime example of the "teammate dependent" factor in RBI, and why I could give a rats tail about RBI.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

To Howard's credit, he has produced pretty well with his opportunities.

.288/.386/.588 (.974) with runners on

and

.328/.441/.629 (1.070) with runners in scoring position

[CaiGuy]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in. Put Howard on the Reds batting in Dunn's spot, and he doesn't have anywhere near 84 RBI. Put Dunn on the Phillies batting Howard's spot, and he's far beyond 60 RBI.

A prime example of the "teammate dependent" factor in RBI, and why I could give a rats tail about RBI.

Bingo, that is exactly my point...

[BCubb2003]

Here's a list of RBI%

http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2...all_stat_o.php

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in.

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

To Howard's credit, he has produced pretty well with his opportunities.

.288/.386/.588 (.974) with runners on

and

.328/.441/.629 (1.070) with runners in scoring position

you're both right.

Dunn has delivered RISP at a lesser rate (32 percent vs. Howard's 38 percent), but Howard has also had 42 more RISP to deliver than Dunn has.

If Dunn delivered at the same rate, but had the same number of guys to deliver as Howard, then he'd have 12 more RBI-- still quite a bit short of Howard.

(but there is improvement. over his career, Adam delivers runners at an even lower rate than he's shown this season...)

[CaiGuy]

Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

Here's a list of RBI%

that's almost a great stat. gotta go pretty far down to find the first Red (Adam Dunn, BTW)

EdE looks terrible.

Maybe THAT'S what's wrong with the offense, eh? few opportunities, sure, but also the inability to capitalize on what few opportunities there be.

too bad we got rid of that Hamilton guy. Cody Ross rocks, too.

[nate]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

Here's a list of RBI%

http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2...all_stat_o.php

That is really freaking interesting! Thanks!

[puca]

Originally Posted by princeton

that's almost a great stat. gotta go pretty far down to find the first Red (Adam Dunn, BTW)

EdE looks terrible.

Maybe THAT'S what's wrong with the offense, eh? few opportunities, sure, but also the inability to capitalize on what few opportunities there be.

too bad we got rid of that Hamilton guy. Cody Ross rocks, too.

Actually it is a fairly worthless if you ask me.

Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.

I have no doubt that the Reds are collectively and individually poor at driving in runners, but this chart really says nothing.

[BCubb2003]

Originally Posted by puca

Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.

I suppose it's a start. It's an attempt to figure out how good you are at driving in what's in front of you, but I bet there are several issues with it as you look deeper. I wonder if it could be refined.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by puca

Actually it is a fairly worthless if you ask me.

Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.

I have no doubt that the Reds are collectively and individually poor at driving in runners, but this chart really says nothing.

I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?

could be true, but my guess is that there's a very strong correlation.

there are problems with the stat but that's not one that bugs me.

the data that I've recently been posting for Dunn vs. Lee, Hamilton, Howard and Pujols are better, because I've been tallying the actual number of runners and doubling the weight of the atbats with two men in scoring position. I've not subtracted HRs because I was lazy but also because why penalize a HR?

but such stats are surely important-- my guess is that it's close to what managers, GMs and scouts file away in their head as they watch numerous atbats, but here we have an actual percentage and not an "impression". It probably suggests why Adam Dunn has very little trade value, and suggests that EdE probably doesn't as well. And if EdE DOES have trade value, it could be worth exploiting because the team needs to raise this rate, IMO

except for a decent jump this season, Dunn's percentage has remained fairly consistent throughout his career-- I'm not sure if that's true for multiple batters.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by princeton

I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?

I don't, but I do think the pitcher approaches both situations differently and thats' a variable that also depends on what inning it is or what the current score is.