Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

Now is the right time and I am not knockinghis defense, his bat or his value to the club - but this is the window to get the greatest return. Rickey said always trade a guy a year too soon than a year too late. It's as true now as then. Probably more so, because of the monies involved.

He's 27.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Rojo

He's 27.

It's really more about the contract than his age...

[GAC]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Maybe a glove who can play LF or SS would be a part of the return?

Maybe. But you're going to downgrade yourself (defensively) at one position (2B) to upgrade another position defensively? Isn't that more of a trade off or lateral move then bettering yourself?

[Will M]

Originally Posted by GAC

Oodles may be able to play it (hold their own); but very few of them would excel like BP. The above wouldn't even come close IMO.

And remember also.... Walt craves defense too.

Are you talking defensively or the total package? No doubt that the players I mentioned would not be as good defensively as Phillips.

Fantasy scenario: Reds trade Phillips & Matt Maloney for Matt Holliday. They get a 72 hr window and sign him to a LTC. He hits 4th behind Votto and ahead of EE & Bruce. 2B is manned by a platoon of Richar & Kep. Valaika starts in AAA. Are the Reds a better team in this scenario? You betcha!

[Mario-Rijo]

I know many here won't be content until he's dealt because he's been viewed from day 1 as the anti-Dunn. The fact is he has done very well defensively and his offense while relying mostly on talent and not so much on approach has been top 10 in baseball at his position. His baserunning is rarely an issue, yes at times he is overly aggressive but that is what 3-4 times a year, the rest of the time his baserunning is excellent.

If you wanna deal him because he's something you don't care for off the field then fine but when discussing his game please let's be fair. Adam Dunn by "pro-dunn" fans was what he was and couldn't be a super duperstar, Phillips can be, all he has to learn is a little patience. And for what we are paying him for his whole contract it's going to end up more than fair for the Reds. 11 million gets you a superstar in '11, I'd call that a flat out steal. I'd call it a steal if he was just a .270-.280 hitter with 20+ HR's and 20+ steals while likely still playing gold glove defense.

Let's keep this guy forever and pay him nearly 20 million a year because he walks but let's get rid of this guy who is overpaid at 11 million because he doesn't walk.

Sorry doesn't make logical sense. All that said if it took BP to get Holliday I would consider it, but it's not a no-brainer IMO.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Will M

Are you talking defensively or the total package? No doubt that the players I mentioned would not be as good defensively as Phillips.

Fantasy scenario: Reds trade Phillips & Matt Maloney for Matt Holliday. They get a 72 hr window and sign him to a LTC. He hits 4th behind Votto and ahead of EE & Bruce. 2B is manned by a platoon of Richar & Kep. Valaika starts in AAA. Are the Reds a better team in this scenario? You betcha!

This won't happen with Boras as his agent, unless of course we give him an A-Rod deal. And I am not so sure we are better in that scenario, the defense certainly wouldn't be and offensively only marginally better. Why dream to deal BP when you don't have to?

[Will M]

I went to baseball reference & looked at who got the most ABs this year at
2B for each team. Here are their OPS+ rankings ( OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark ). I averaged the last three years unless noted.

1. 134 Utley
2. 118 Pedroia ( 2 years )
3. 117 Uggla
4. 116 Kinsler
5. 110 Derosa
5. 110 Kent
7. 109 Cano
7. 109 Roberts
9. 106 Hudson
10. 105 Kelly Johnson
11. 103 Matsui
11. 103 Alexi Ramirez ( 1 yr )
13. 102 Polanco
14. 101 Iwamura ( 2 years )
14. 101 Durham
16. 99 F Sanchez
16. 99 Alexi Casilla
18. 98 Kendrick
19. 97 Weeks
20. 95 Brandon Phillips
20. 95 Ellis
20. 95 Grudzielanek
23. 93 Hill
24. 89 L Castillo
25. 87 Jose Lopez
26. 84 Iguchi
27. 83 Felipe Lopez
28. 78 Kennedy
29. 78 Asdrubal Cabrera ( 1 year )
30. 58 Barmes

So Phillips may be one of the best defensive second basemen in the bigs but he is subpar offensively at his position.

[Will M]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

And I am not so sure we are better in that scenario, the defense certainly wouldn't be and offensively only marginally better.

Matt Holliday's OPS+ for the last three years has averaged 144! He is the kind of monster RH bat the Reds need to hit in the middle of the lineup.
The offense would be tons better.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I know many here won't be content until he's dealt because he's been viewed from day 1 as the anti-Dunn.

That's a strawman. Regardless of what I (or others) may think about Dunn's offensive game, Phillips' value has nothing to do with Dunn. It has everything to do with Phillips.

The fact is he has done very well defensively and his offense while relying mostly on talent and not so much on approach has been top 10 in baseball at his position. His baserunning is rarely an issue, yes at times he is overly aggressive but that is what 3-4 times a year, the rest of the time his baserunning is excellent.

Phillips has been solid defensively. Offensively, he's worth more than 2 Runs Above Position exactly once (2007). His Stolen Base efficiency has degenerated to mediocrity this season.

If you wanna deal him because he's something you don't care for off the field then fine but when discussing his game please let's be fair. Adam Dunn by "pro-dunn" fans was what he was and couldn't be a super duperstar, Phillips can be, all he has to learn is a little patience. And for what we are paying him for his whole contract it's going to end up more than fair for the Reds. 11 million gets you a superstar in '11, I'd call that a flat out steal. I'd call it a steal if he was just a .270-.280 hitter with 20+ HR's and 20+ steals while likely still playing gold glove defense.

Again, Phillips' lack of major value thusfar has nothing to do with Adam Dunn. This season, Phillips finished negative 4.4 Runs Above Position (RAP). That means he'd need to be worth 15 Runs above average to be a single-Win player. From 2006 thru 2008, Phillips has been worth 6.4 RAP offensively. That's a marginal-Win player over three seasons versus positional average. His offensive value has been highly overrated by some since he joined the club.

The good news is that he's just entering his age-prime years. If there's a reason not to dangle him on the trade market right now, that's it. The bad news is that to really be something resembling a top-notch value offensive player, he needs a lot more than a tweak to his approach.

Let's keep this guy forever and pay him nearly 20 million a year because he walks but let's get rid of this guy who is overpaid at 11 million because he doesn't walk.

Focus on who Phillips is rather than who he isn't.

Sorry doesn't make logical sense. All that said if it took BP to get Holliday I would consider it, but it's not a no-brainer IMO.

What doesn't make sense is clutching tightly to a player who needs to produce an astounding amount of defensive Runs just to position himself as a slightly above-average player. While they're good to have around at decent prices, players whose games profile like Phillips don't age so gracefully, they're very volatile offensively, and a single tweak to a leg muscle removes the vast majority of their value versus an average player. Phillips is exactly the type of player the Reds can rely on as a support piece over the next couple of seasons. Good deal. But should a team get a chance to swap a support piece, especially when highly paid, for real or potential impact players, then said team needs to do so- especially when they're in the Reds' position.

[Heath]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

What doesn't make sense is clutching tightly to a player who needs to produce an astounding amount of defensive Runs just to position himself as a slightly above-average player. While they're good to have around at decent prices, players whose games profile like Phillips don't age so gracefully, they're very volatile offensively, and a single tweak to a leg muscle removes the vast majority of their value versus an average player. Phillips is exactly the type of player the Reds can rely on as a support piece over the next couple of seasons. Good deal. But should a team get a chance to swap a support piece, especially when highly paid, for real or potential impact players, then said team needs to do so- especially when they're in the Reds' position.

That's a point that needs to be made - if there's any deal to be made it's going to have to be Phillips + support piece/ML-Caliber Prospect = real or potential impact player.

I still think that Brandon Phillips could be an All-Star....if he played SS before his prime years are up.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Heath

I still think that Brandon Phillips could be an All-Star....if he played SS before his prime years are up.

I've always thought that might be true if he played CF too. But then I realized Phillips would probably react to every ball hit to the outfield by yelling, "MINE!!!"

[Mario-Rijo]

Sorry Steel but that dog won't hunt. It has everything to do with him not taking BB's which I agree if he did improve that area would improve his offensive game greatly and thusly his overall value significantly. If he took BB's at half the clip Dunn did he would be a much better overall version of Alfonso Soriano.

The fact he doesn't (or hasn't yet) is exactly why he is looked at here by some as dealable! If he did take those walks everyone here would say his offense is not only sustainable but likely to improve. And because of that would completely go ballistic if he got dealt. He is currently viewed as the Anti-Dunn and thusly needs shipped away before the rest of MLB finds out he cannot sustain these AVG stats is the attitude I see. If he is just an AVG offensive 2B with good defense then why does anyone think he has much value at all? You can find plenty of those so why would anyone make such a deal for one?

If he took more walks his OPS+ would be top 3-5 in baseball at his position easy. And if you dispute that you are just being facetious.

[MWM]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Sorry Steel but that dog won't hunt. It has everything to do with him not taking BB's which I agree if he did improve that area would improve his offensive game greatly and thusly his overall value significantly. If he took BB's at half the clip Dunn did he would be a much better overall version of Alfonso Soriano.

The fact he doesn't (or hasn't yet) is exactly why he is looked at here by some as dealable! If he did take those walks everyone here would say his offense is not only sustainable but likely to improve. And because of that would completely go ballistic if he got dealt. He is currently viewed as the Anti-Dunn and thusly needs shipped away before the rest of MLB finds out he cannot sustain these AVG stats is the attitude I see. If he is just an AVG offensive 2B with good defense then why does anyone think he has much value at all? You can find plenty of those so why would anyone make such a deal for one?

If he took more walks his OPS+ would be top 3-5 in baseball at his position easy. And if you dispute that you are just being facetious.

MR, the point Steel is making is that the fact that he needs to take more walks to clear a big offensive defeciency is the same regardless of Adam Dunn. My perception is that you turned into a drama by saying people didn't like him because they liked Adam Dunn and he wasn't Dunn. Brandon Phillips needs to take more walks even if Adam Dunn had never existed. Your last line sums it up perfectly. One does not have to do with the other.

[westofyou]

Brandon Phillips needs to take more walks even if Adam Dunn had never existed.

Unless he wants to be Julian Javier with some pop I suggest he work on that part of his game

[WVRedsFan]

Phillips is a strange case. He's streaky because he never saw a pitch he didn't like. My guess is that pitchers know this and don't throw him many strikes, though I have no proof to back that up. Regardless, he's a horrible cleanup hitter even though he has hot streaks that make him look like all that.

Phillips is valuable for his glove, but I wouldn't turn down the right offer for him. I do not think he is the face of the Reds or the clubhouse leader that many seem to think he is. The new face of the Reds and cleanup hitters of the future can be found at first base and right field presently.