Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Phillips is a strange case. He's streaky because he never saw a pitch he didn't like. My guess is that pitchers know this and don't throw him many strikes, though I have no proof to back that up. Regardless, he's a horrible cleanup hitter even though he has hot streaks that make him look like all that.

Phillips is valuable for his glove, but I wouldn't turn down the right offer for him. I do not think he is the face of the Reds or the clubhouse leader that many seem to think he is. The new face of the Reds and cleanup hitters of the future can be found at first base and right field presently.

He kind of reminds me of Shawon Dunston who ended up as a utility player for LaRussa in StL.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Chip R

He kind of reminds me of Shawon Dunston who ended up as a utility player for LaRussa in StL.

That's the perfect comparison, Chip.

[RedsManRick]

What strikes me as funny about Phillips' offensive game is that his struggles are due almost entirely to one problem: He cannot lay off low, outside breaking pitches and he cannot hit them. That's it. Pitch him inside or pitch him high and he'll kill you. He'll take that big cut and crush it. But go Tom Glavine on him and he's completely helpless.

I don't know if he has trouble recognizing those pitches or merely cannot resist trying to hit them, but it's almost comical. Swinging at those pitches prevents him from working deep and results in a ton of weak grounders that have a tendency to turn in to double plays. If he could simply learn to lay off those pitches, he'd be a force.

[gm]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

What strikes me as funny about Phillips' offensive game is that his struggles are due almost entirely to one problem: He cannot lay off low, outside breaking pitches and he cannot hit them. That's it. Pitch him inside or pitch him high and he'll kill you. He'll take that big cut and crush it. But go Tom Glavine on him and he's completely helpless.

I don't know if he has trouble recognizing those pitches or merely cannot resist trying to hit them, but it's almost comical. Swinging at those pitches prevents him from working deep and results in a ton of weak grounders that have a tendency to turn in to double plays. If he could simply learn to lay off those pitches, he'd be a force.

Ding ding ding ding!

All a RH pitcher has to do is start a breaking pitch in the zone and Phillips will swing over it as it drops down and away. Ver-ry Sammy Sosa-like

Can Brandon's vision be improved so that he can detect the spin on breaking pitches quickly after the pitcher releases the ball? I've heard there are some programs designed to improve an athlete's vision and concentration, if I ran the Reds I'd "persuade" BP to enroll in such an offseason program

But as far as Walt trading BP? ... not so much ... Jocketty loves him some up-the-middle D

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by gm

But as far as Walt trading BP? ... not so much ... Jocketty loves him some up-the-middle D

That said, Brandon Phillips was not on his 5 Keepers list earlier in the year and Phillips has played worse as the season has continued.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Will M

Fantasy scenario: Reds trade Phillips & Matt Maloney for Matt Holliday. They get a 72 hr window and sign him to a LTC. He hits 4th behind Votto and ahead of EE & Bruce. 2B is manned by a platoon of Richar & Kep. Valaika starts in AAA. Are the Reds a better team in this scenario? You betcha!

Yeah, but I'm not talking fantasy scenarios though. No one can argue (dispute) a fantasy scenario.

There are only a few "untouchables" on this team as far as I'm concerned. And BP is not necessarily one of them.

As to your suggestion (example) of platooning Kep and Richar at 2B....

First off.... I hate platooning, and have since the days Pete was our manager.

Secondly.... while you may be improving ourselves positionally elsewhere in a trade of Phillips, a platoon of Kep/Richar weakens us, IMHO, both offensively/defensively at that position.

I'm not impressed with Richar. How can anyone be?

.230 BA .289 OB%, .406 SLG% .695 OPS (3 years)

With Keppinger - 2008 is really his first opportunity of getting to start and get ABs on a consistent basis. Notwithstanding that he got injured this year (not his fault), his numbers have not proven to be something I'm ecstatic over, or that he may prove to be nothing more then a capable super-sub...

.265 BA .311 OB% .348 SLG% .649 OPS

Juan Castro sends salutations!

And even if the Rockies are entertaining trading a Matt Holliday, who is not only a FA after next season, but a player entering his prime putting up solid numbers, they are going to be demanding a lot in return, whether it's top prospects or whatever.

And these are not the types of moves, IMO, that Jocketty is known for making. If you are going to trade away a starter, then it's because you can do so and not hurt/weaken your team, meaning, you have a replacement in the system and not trying to "get by".

[Will M]

Originally Posted by GAC

Yeah, but I'm not talking fantasy scenarios though. No one can argue (dispute) a fantasy scenario.

There are only a few "untouchables" on this team as far as I'm concerned. And BP is not necessarily one of them.

As to your suggestion (example) of platooning Kep and Richar at 2B....

First off.... I hate platooning, and have since the days Pete was our manager.

Secondly.... while you may be improving ourselves positionally elsewhere in a trade of Phillips, a platoon of Kep/Richar weakens us, IMHO, both offensively/defensively at that position.

I'm not impressed with Richar. How can anyone be?

.230 BA .289 OB%, .406 SLG% .695 OPS (3 years)

With Keppinger - 2008 is really his first opportunity of getting to start and get ABs on a consistent basis. Notwithstanding that he got injured this year (not his fault), his numbers have not proven to be something I'm ecstatic over, or that he may prove to be nothing more then a capable super-sub...

.265 BA .311 OB% .348 SLG% .649 OPS

Juan Castro sends salutations!

And even if the Rockies are entertaining trading a Matt Holliday, who is not only a FA after next season, but a player entering his prime putting up solid numbers, they are going to be demanding a lot in return, whether it's top prospects or whatever.

And these are not the types of moves, IMO, that Jocketty is known for making. If you are going to trade away a starter, then it's because you can do so and not hurt/weaken your team, meaning, you have a replacement in the system and not trying to "get by".

The Rockies can't ask a lot in return for a one year rental. Holliday is leaving Colorado. From their standpoint Phillips plus Maloney is a lot better than 2 draft picks. From the Reds standpoint IF they get a 72 hour window its a good deal for us. This trade was just an example.

Phillips will go ( my prediction ) to fix problems elsewhere.

I don't suggest platooning Richar and Kep. This is just one idea. I would try Kep, Richar, Rosales or even Hairston at 2B until Valaika is ready. Heck if we get a better SS gonzalez could play 2B. The point is we have lots of options here and a good prospect in AA which we have holes elsewhere. Add to it Phillips's HR & SB total look good but his OPS+ is pedestrian and we have a prime trade candidate.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

What strikes me as funny about Phillips' offensive game is that his struggles are due almost entirely to one problem: He cannot lay off low, outside breaking pitches and he cannot hit them. That's it. Pitch him inside or pitch him high and he'll kill you. He'll take that big cut and crush it. But go Tom Glavine on him and he's completely helpless.

I don't know if he has trouble recognizing those pitches or merely cannot resist trying to hit them, but it's almost comical. Swinging at those pitches prevents him from working deep and results in a ton of weak grounders that have a tendency to turn in to double plays. If he could simply learn to lay off those pitches, he'd be a force.

This is absolutely correct, and my gut says he just can't seem to lay off it consistently. He does lay off of it at times but not nearly enough. And it's almost always a slider. But my whole point is why give up on a guy who is 1 pitch recognition away from being an excellent offensive player.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by MWM

MR, the point Steel is making is that the fact that he needs to take more walks to clear a big offensive defeciency is the same regardless of Adam Dunn. My perception is that you turned into a drama by saying people didn't like him because they liked Adam Dunn and he wasn't Dunn. Brandon Phillips needs to take more walks even if Adam Dunn had never existed. Your last line sums it up perfectly. One does not have to do with the other.

Well for the most part that is pretty true but I have a feeling there is a couple of folks who wish him gone simply for the reason I mentioned. If not great. But I just don't see the logic in dealing away a guy who is so close to being an outstanding all around player with a more than reasonable contract through his prime years. Not wise at all IMO

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

But my whole point is why give up on a guy who is 1 pitch recognition away from being an excellent offensive player.

While what you say may be true (1 pitch recognition away), I think most people in this thread aren't looking to "give up" on him, but rather cash in while you still can. After a couple years, not only will BP's salary dramatically increase, but let's say he never actually learns to lay off that one pitch (IMO, very likely). Then how do things look compared to what they could be?

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

This is absolutely correct, and my gut says he just can't seem to lay off it consistently. He does lay off of it at times but not nearly enough. And it's almost always a slider. But my whole point is why give up on a guy who is 1 pitch recognition away from being an excellent offensive player.

As screwball points out, it's not "give up" -- it's "cash in". There are many players in AAA right now who are that 1 pitch away from being solid major leaguers. It sounds simple and it's tantalizingly close. Imagine if Wily Mo Pena could hit a curve ball or if Corey Patterson could lay off fastballs at his shoulders.

But sometimes you're better off cashing in and letting somebody else roll those dice. This is especially true if you can get somebody to give you value as if the flaw wasn't there.

Phillips is a true asset and will be for at least the next two season. But if we can capitalize on his value to get more value in return, we'd be stupid to pass up the opportunity.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Screwball

While what you say may be true (1 pitch recognition away), I think most people in this thread aren't looking to "give up" on him, but rather cash in while you still can. After a couple years, not only will BP's salary dramatically increase, but let's say he never actually learns to lay off that one pitch (IMO, very likely). Then how do things look compared to what they could be?

That's a fair point he may never and I agree that usually it's more likely a player doesn't. That said 11 million in 2011 for a gold glove 2nd bagger with 20+ HR, 20+ SB's, 20+ DBls and a .270-280 hitter isn't grossly overpaying IMO.

Not to mention that although his OBP% is down this year compared to the previous 2, his BB/PA is up and was on pace to walk well more than ever before which proves he is improving there already. He still has some work to do but as poorly as he hit this season he still improved his approach at the plate that shouldn't be overlooked.

2006 - 1 BB every 16.77 PA
2007 - 1 BB every 21.27 PA
2008 - 1 BB every 15.61 PA

[gm]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That said, Brandon Phillips was not on his 5 Keepers list earlier in the year and Phillips has played worse as the season has continued.

Yes, I heard that Daugherty interview (via podcast) but I'm not so sure that Walt gave Paul his definitive "list"

Sure, Phillips hit worse as the season went along, but if he carried his batting slump out to 2b I sure didn't see it. Jocketty will have to be blown away to part with BP; I think at this point I'd rate moving Brandon over to SS as more likely than moving him to another ballclub

Either scenario < 10%

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by gm

Yes, I heard that Daugherty interview (via podcast) but I'm not so sure that Walt gave Paul his definitive "list"

Sure, Phillips hit worse as the season went along, but if he carried his batting slump out to 2b I sure didn't see it. Jocketty will have to be blown away to part with BP; I think at this point I'd rate moving Brandon over to SS as more likely than moving him to another ballclub

Either scenario < 10%

I agree I don't think it was definitive and too much stock is put into it. However which ever way that it falls I doubt this off-season is the right time to do it if it's inevitably going to be done. Combine the injury with the un-exciting type #'s he put up compared to last season and it makes for a less than stellar return.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Will M

The Rockies can't ask a lot in return for a one year rental. Holliday is leaving Colorado.

I don't know that his leaving the Rockies is a sure thing.

From their standpoint Phillips plus Maloney is a lot better than 2 draft picks.

Very true; but I strongly doubt that the Rockies will attempt to trade Matt in the off-season, unless it's really a blockbuster offer made that they find hard to refuse. A suggested Phillips-Maloney scenario, IMO, does not fit that criteria.

It also depends on what the Rockie's specific needs (objectives) are in possibly trading a Holliday.

If the Rockie's FO is entertaining trading him, then they will most likely wait until next year's TD when teams in the hunt are really looking to add a player, even somewhat "desperate" to do so, and will make that sacrifice, even for a possible rental, to give them that added punch.

For example: The Brewers really gave up alot IMO to rent C.C.

Phillips will go ( my prediction ) to fix problems elsewhere.

And I have no problem with that if it is to address (fix) problems elsewhere.

But the below is what bothers me....

I don't suggest platooning Richar and Kep. This is just one idea. I would try Kep, Richar, Rosales or even Hairston at 2B until Valaika is ready. Heck if we get a better SS gonzalez could play 2B. The point is we have lots of options here and a good prospect in AA which we have holes elsewhere.

We're creating holes in order to fill holes IMO. They are lateral moves.

The above guys you mention, other then a Gonzo maybe, IMHO, are, at best, career bench/utility players. Their resumes prove that. And yet this organization continues to try and take these types of players and make them into starters or "lessen" their lack of talent by platooning them.

Add to it Phillips's HR & SB total look good but his OPS+ is pedestrian

True. But you're then suggesting replacing him with guys whose OPS is even worse then BP's.

And wasn't utilizing these marginal players as "stopgaps" on the ML roster until another player(s) possibly develops the approach Krivsky was taking, what was upsetting to the owner, and got Wayne fired?

I don't think Bob brought Jocketty in to continue the same.

We've cleared out payroll in the dealing of Jr and Dunn. Walt then has the opportunity to clear out even more fodder at season's end by letting it walk. Now players like Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and Phillips, all get hefty raises in '09.

And players like Hairston, and a few others, are arb eligible. But if they start giving these guys Freel-type contracts because they somehow "shined" in '08 in opposition to their career numbers, then this team will be no better off, and is still just spinning it's wheels IMO.

Again - Jocketty, IMO, was brought in to make those changes in personnel and begin to improve this team that Bob lost trust in Krivsky on.

And they are the ones who, in that letter to the fans, said they were going to be competitive in '09.

To me, that means some major additions (changes) need to be made and not simply put the entire success of the season on the further maturation (hope) that young players prove their worth. More must be done.

Simply resigning guys like Hairston, Cabrera, Keppinger, and a few others, certainly does not accomplish that IMO.