Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by medford

I find it interesting that Homer isn't listed as an option (he wouldn't be my #1 fwiw) and nobody has said boo about at this point. My how far has his star fallen? I wonder if he'll be considered by the Reds #1 prospect by BA, etc... even though most of redszone wouldn't list him as #1.

I really liked what I saw out of Soto when I saw him earlier this year, so I'll go w/ him for now, however I like everything I've read and seen of Yonder to this point. Just not enough of it in professional ball for me to put him #1 yet.

Homer Bailey no longer qualifies as a prospect due to him losing his rookie eligibility this season.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Homer Bailey no longer qualifies as a prospect due to him losing his rookie eligibility this season.

Gotcha. That answers my question to Kc then.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Soto will be the number one or two prospect on RedsZone. And nowhere else.

Soto will, at worst, be the #3 Reds prospect when BA reveals their list. Baseball Prospectus will probably have him #2. All the major prospect sites love the potential of Soto. He should be #1 or 2 but BA likes Stubbs a lot so he'll probably rank ahead of Soto.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Wrong. Soto will, at worst, be the #3 Reds prospect when BA reveals their list. Baseball Prospectus will probably have him #2. All the major prospect sites love the potential of Soto. He should be #1 or 2 but BA likes Stubbs a lot so he'll probably rank ahead of Soto.

So your prediction is BP has him #2 and BA has him #3? Both are likely to have Alonso #1, correct?

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Alonso is tearing it up in the Hawaiian Winter League right now to the tune of .280/.438/.560. Small sample size of course, but he comes from a school that has a list a mile long of good major leaguers and his scouting reports looks fantastic.

Brandon Larson came from a top program. His coach at LSU said he was better than Albert Belle when he coached him. There have been plenty of players with top notch pedigrees and have from great pedigrees that have failed. Im not saying that Alonso will be a failure but I don't rank him high until he proves it in the minors.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by BRM

So your prediction is BP has him #2 and BA has him #3? Both are likely to have Alonso #1, correct?

Kevin Goldstein of BP loves Soto. It wouldn't surprise me if he has Soto #1, but I still think he'll put Alonso #1 and Soto #2. Goldstein is also a Frazier fan too but I fully expect Soto to be #1/2 on BP. I'm not 100% sure about Baseball America. They are huge fans of five tool players like Stubbs. IIRC in a chat a while back they all but confirmed Alonso will be ranked #1 on their Reds list. That leads me to believe they'll decide between Stubbs and Soto for number two.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Kevin Goldstein of BP loves Soto. It wouldn't surprise me if he has Soto #1, but I still think he'll put Alonso #1 and Soto #2. Goldstein is also a Frazier fan too but I fully expect Soto to be #1/2 on BP. I'm not 100% sure about Baseball America. They are huge fans of five tool players like Stubbs. IIRC in a chat a while back they all but confirmed Alonso will be ranked #1 on their Reds list. That leads me to believe they'll decide between Stubbs and Soto for number two.

It sounds to me like Alonso, Soto, Frazier and Stubbs will be the top 4 on nearly every site. It's just a matter of what order they are in. Where do the pitchers fit in? None in the top 5?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Wrong. Soto will, at worst, be the #3 Reds prospect when BA reveals their list. Baseball Prospectus will probably have him #2. All the major prospect sites love the potential of Soto. He should be #1 or 2 but BA likes Stubbs a lot so he'll probably rank ahead of Soto.

I seem to recall BA (maybe in a chat concerning the individual league prospects list) suggesting that Soto ranks behind a number of others, like Valaika, Francisco. Perhaps I'm not remembering accurately. Soto is a good prospect, but some of the posters here may have a slightly inflated view.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by BRM

It sounds to me like Alonso, Soto, Frazier and Stubbs will be the top 4 on nearly every site. It's just a matter of what order they are in. Where do the pitchers fit in? None in the top 5?

Daryl Thompson and Kyle Lotzkar will probably rank in the 6-10 area. Lotzkar has true TOR talent, his stuff is that good. He's got three potential plus pitches. Right now he just needs to work on his control and he's got plenty of time to do that. He doesn't turn 19 until next week.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Daryl Thompson and Kyle Lotzkar will probably rank in the 6-10 area. Lotzkar has true TOR talent, his stuff is that good. He's got three potential plus pitches. Right now he just needs to work on his control and he's got plenty of time to do that. He doesn't turn 19 until next week.

I would guess Lotzkar will be the highest rated pitching prospect just due to his ceiling being high. Guys like Thompson profile more as 3s or 4s from what I've read. The Reds may only have 2 or 3 pitchers in the their top 10.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Soto has walked 22 times in 437 minor league at bats. He isn't a plus defensive prospect. I doubt any publication will rank him as the Reds top one or two prospect. Lower in the top ten, yes.

After Alonso, there is no sure fire prospect in the organization. I think Frazier is the closest with his advanced bat, although his lack of a clear defensive position is an issue.

Stubbs has the defense and emerging offense to probably be number 3.

Then you can talk about Soto with some others.

Neftali Soto's plate discipline isn't really much of an issue because he isn't out there swinging and missing at a bunch of junk. He just make good with the strikes he see's and puts them in play (he did hit .340 this year). He is easily the #2 prospect for me.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Brandon Larson came from a top program. His coach at LSU said he was better than Albert Belle when he coached him. There have been plenty of players with top notch pedigrees and have from great pedigrees that have failed. Im not saying that Alonso will be a failure but I don't rank him high until he proves it in the minors.

I guess we just have very strong disagreements on how we view prospects. I look at them more as 'what will they do eventually', their current performance comes into play further down the checklist.

[Stingray]

I went with Stubbs because all reports agree his defense is outstanding in a critical defensive position and his hitting has held up or improved as he moved up in levels. He's the nearest to being ready - as soon as mid '09.

[klw]

I think for future polls on this the list of options should be longer to include folks such as Duran, yorman, D Thompson,Josh Roenicke, Kyle Lotzkar, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Francisco, Zach Stewart, Zach Cozart, Travis Wood, Matt Maloney, Shaun Cumberland, etc. Thanks for getting this going again,.

And before we get too far the question of whether Homer still qualifies should be settled.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I seem to recall BA (maybe in a chat concerning the individual league prospects list) suggesting that Soto ranks behind a number of others, like Valaika, Francisco. Perhaps I'm not remembering accurately. Soto is a good prospect, but some of the posters here may have a slightly inflated view.

Depends who you ask at BA. Jim Callis has said you could make a real convincing argument that Soto is the Reds best prospect. Others may not be so sure, but the league prospects lists are a crapshoot at times, especially in the case of a guy like Soto, who some managers in the league may not have seen or only seen once. The Midwest League list was compiled by talking with 8 of the mangers in the league, well for all we know, 4 of those managers didn't see Soto at all this year due to scheduling and his arrival to Dayton.