Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

[GoReds33]

Alonso has been compared to Pujols. I don't really care if that comes true, but if he's even close, I'll be more than pleased.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by GoReds33

Alonso has been compared to Pujols. I don't really care if that comes true, but if he's even close, I'll be more than pleased.

I think that comparison was between body types, not ability. I think a better comparison would be along the lines of an Adrian Gonzalez type with slightly less power and more walks.

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I think that comparison was between body types, not ability. I think a better comparison would be along the lines of an Adrian Gonzalez type with slightly less power and more walks.

I have heard the body one more, but I have, atleast once, heard them compared in ablities. I know it's a bad comparison, but if you want to compare a prospect with somebody, why not compare him with the best in baseball?

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by BRM

It sounds to me like Alonso, Soto, Frazier and Stubbs will be the top 4 on nearly every site. It's just a matter of what order they are in. Where do the pitchers fit in? None in the top 5?

Actually Lotzkar would be #3 or #4 for me. What he was doing in Dayton before his injury was really, really impressive. I'd also have Maloney and Thompson in the top eight.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I don't know if it is that extreme. I look at prospects as "what they will do eventually" but they have to prove first that they can do something now. Im not saying that Alonso doesn't have all the physical tools to become a great hitter, it is that he has yet to show he can handle playing professional baseball with a wooden bat yet. Once he does that he will jump to the top of my list. There have been all kind of world class athletes that have had all the tools but have had the inability to put it all together. That is why I want to see Alonso hold his own in the minors before I jump on his bandwagon.

Alonso was the #2 prospect in the cape cod league in 2007 - the top collegiate wooden bat/pro showcase summer league. He started three years and two elite years at the highest level of college ball. When drafted, he was deemed to be at the high A/AA level right away.
This guy is very skilled, very determined and has conducted himself as a MLer since early on at Miami. He was a very safe pick - he is a far superior hitter than Soto, Frazier and Valaika.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SMcGavin

Actually Lotzkar would be #3 or #4 for me. What he was doing in Dayton before his injury was really, really impressive. I'd also have Maloney and Thompson in the top eight.

What has Matt Maloney done to warrant being in the Top 8?

[mth123]

I'm a Frazier guy. Guy can hit and he's ready to take-off on a march to the big leagues in 2009.

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

What has Matt Maloney done to warrant being in the Top 8?

Really? 8.3 K/9 and 2.46 BB/9 in AAA not impressive? Look into what he did this year, it was the best season of his career. It's just hidden behind the fluky HR/F%. He always had a power guys' peripherals, and that included some not so great control. This year he drastically cut his walks, while keeping good strikeout numbers.

Seriously, "what has he done"? If nobody had ever seen these guys play Maloney would be penciled in to our rotation for the next ten years. The concern with Maloney has always been projection of his stuff to the bigs... what he has done on the field is mow down hitters at every level of the minors. The progression of his control this year bodes extremely well for his ability to succeed in the majors. Thompson was the reason I said top eight - Maloney is #5 or 6 for me. The groupthink that goes on regarding Maloney is ridiculous.

[AmarilloRed]

I actually think Ramon Ramirez and Danny Dorn should be mentioned in future polls. Ramirez performed on the field in September with the Reds, and looks like he will be a major league starting pitcher next year. I have Ramirez with the inside track to be our fifth starter next year. Danny Dorn was very impressive last year in AA. Neither is the top prospect; however both should be in the top 10.

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm a Frazier guy. Guy can hit and he's ready to take-off on a march to the big leagues in 2009.

I love Frazier too, but I have to go with Alonso #1. Those guys are the clear cut top two in my mind, with a mob of 6/7 guys behind them that I find it hard to differentiate between.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SMcGavin

Really? 8.3 K/9 and 2.46 BB/9 in AAA not impressive? Look into what he did this year, it was the best season of his career. It's just hidden behind the fluky HR/F%. He always had a power guys' peripherals, and that included some not so great control. This year he drastically cut his walks, while keeping good strikeout numbers.

Maloney had the highest FIP of his career this year in a pitchers ballpark in a pitchers league. His 'fluky' HR rate wasn't all that fluky as it was at 7% HR/FB, which is 4% lower than the major league average. I watched him pitch a lot last year, there was nothing fluky about it, you can't work up in the zone with mediocre stuff and get away with it, even in AAA.

Seriously, "what has he done"? If nobody had ever seen these guys play Maloney would be penciled in to our rotation for the next ten years. The concern with Maloney has always been projection of his stuff to the bigs... what he has done on the field is mow down hitters at every level of the minors. The progression of his control this year bodes extremely well for his ability to succeed in the majors. Thompson was the reason I said top eight - Maloney is #5 or 6 for me. The groupthink that goes on regarding Maloney is ridiculous.

Yeah, expect watching him play suggests that he isn't likely to carry his numbers over to the major leagues because he isn't going to miss too many bats there with a 90 MPH fastball that he throws up in the zone. Matt Maloney isn't one of the Reds top 5 starting pitching prospects, much less one of their top 5 prospects. He doesn't have a single plus offering, is an extreme flyball pitcher (60% flyball rate, just 40% grounders), his fastball is mediocre at best and he pitches up in the zone. Nothing about that suggests he is going to go to the majors and have success. I mean really, what separates Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure? The hand they throw with is about it. Both work in the 87-91 MPH range with average offspeed stuff, are fly ball pitchers and get by with how they work the batters.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

This year the kid hit 11 HR in 283 at bats as a 19 year old. Jay Bruce at the same age hit 16 HR in 444 at bats. I think you have a misunderstanding of how many HR's teenagers tend to hit.

I have no misunderstanding.

My post did not challenge Soto's power. As I said, it is likely Soto will hit more homers as he develops.

My point is simply that, for his fans who emphasize Soto's "high contact, low strikeout" performance -- you have to view that in the context of a player who isn't hitting home runs. Usually power hitters strike out much more and if Soto begins to try for homers he may strike out much more.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I have no misunderstanding.

My post did not challenge Soto's power. As I said, it is likely Soto will hit more homers as he develops.

My point is simply that, for his fans who emphasize Soto's "high contact, low strikeout" performance -- you have to view that in the context of a player who isn't hitting home runs. Usually power hitters strike out much more and if Soto begins to try for homers he may strike out much more.

Of course who is to say he isn't trying to hit them now and is still making plenty of contact?

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Maloney had the highest FIP of his career this year in a pitchers ballpark in a pitchers league. His 'fluky' HR rate wasn't all that fluky as it was at 7% HR/FB, which is 4% lower than the major league average. I watched him pitch a lot last year, there was nothing fluky about it, you can't work up in the zone with mediocre stuff and get away with it, even in AAA.


Yeah, expect watching him play suggests that he isn't likely to carry his numbers over to the major leagues because he isn't going to miss too many bats there with a 90 MPH fastball that he throws up in the zone. Matt Maloney isn't one of the Reds top 5 starting pitching prospects, much less one of their top 5 prospects. He doesn't have a single plus offering, is an extreme flyball pitcher (60% flyball rate, just 40% grounders), his fastball is mediocre at best and he pitches up in the zone. Nothing about that suggests he is going to go to the majors and have success. I mean really, what separates Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure? The hand they throw with is about it. Both work in the 87-91 MPH range with average offspeed stuff, are fly ball pitchers and get by with how they work the batters.

According to minorleaguesplits, Maloney's luck-adjusted FIP in AAA this year was 3.36. What a bum. If you want to believe that Maloney can control his HR/F% even though studies suggest no pitchers really can, go for it. By the way, Maloney's HR/F was over 11%, I don't know where you are getting your numbers.

Your "extreme flyball pitcher" line is blatantly wrong... I don't know if you are purposely exaggerating, or misinformed. Actually, I've corrected you on it before, so I'm going to assume you are purposely being misleading. His GB% in 2008 was 41.3%. The past two years it was 42.7% and 45.7%. An average groundball rate is between 43-44%. Those are the facts.

And what separates Lecure and Maloney? Nothing I suppose other than the fact that they are the same age and Maloney has performed way better at every level. I would absolutely love to hear the five starting pitching prospects that the Reds have who are better than Maloney.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Of course who is to say he isn't trying to hit them now and is still making plenty of contact?

Presumably, Soto is trying to make contact. If he's trying for homers, he's not hitting them.