Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

[dfs]

Originally Posted by hippie07

I'm sorry but is anyone else tired of this attitude...

I know the Reds were pretty bad last year, but there's no reason to believe those issues are behind us

That's exactly right. I see no reason to believe they've turned the corner.

You're wishcasting on Hannigan and Dickerson. I think it's more likely that one of them never sees 500 at bats in a major league season than they turn into valuable regulars.

I can accept the starting pitching is an asset, but it does get hurt and it is volatile. Could what they have go through the roof? Sure it could. But it can also crash and burn which means your counting on Ramerez, Livingston or Maloney.

Last years' bullpen was an asset, but it's gone. 3 guys who each gave you 70 good innings (Affeldt,Weathers and Lincoln) will not be back. Essentially, they have to reform the whole bullpen. Bray and Burton have been hurt for sections of the last two seasons and it's entirely likely that Nick Masset matches his lifetime era of 5 instead of the small sample he put up at the end of the year.

I hate to bring up the spectre's of Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, but sometimes young players don't take steps forward. Sometimes they get hurt or regress for other reasons.

There is some talent in the organization, but it's thin and not broad based. There are several pieces of the puzzle that you can squint at and pretend you have a solution, but the whole is not in place yet. At this point shopping for a high priced left fielder makes less sense than getting Cordero did last off season. Will it help you? Sure, but no where near as much as other moves could.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dfs

That's exactly right. I see no reason to believe they've turned the corner.

You're wishcasting on Hannigan and Dickerson. I think it's more likely that one of them never sees 500 at bats in a major league season than they turn into valuable regulars.

I can accept the starting pitching is an asset, but it does get hurt and it is volatile. Could what they have go through the roof? Sure it could. But it can also crash and burn which means your counting on Ramerez, Livingston or Maloney.

Last years' bullpen was an asset, but it's gone. 3 guys who each gave you 70 good innings (Affeldt,Weathers and Lincoln) will not be back. Essentially, they have to reform the whole bullpen. Bray and Burton have been hurt for sections of the last two seasons and it's entirely likely that Nick Masset matches his lifetime era of 5 instead of the small sample he put up at the end of the year.

I hate to bring up the spectre's of Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, but sometimes young players don't take steps forward. Sometimes they get hurt or regress for other reasons.

There is some talent in the organization, but it's thin and not broad based. There are several pieces of the puzzle that you can squint at and pretend you have a solution, but the whole is not in place yet. At this point shopping for a high priced left fielder makes less sense than getting Cordero did last off season. Will it help you? Sure, but no where near as much as other moves could.

I agree with you for the most part. But i'd also say that Walt himself has stated the desire to add more than just a big run producer. His intentions are to address our weaknesses in all spots if at all possible, or at least that was what he stated. I think that is something that people are glossing over a bit. They assume he won't be able to do so with the resources on hand and I don't agree. I don't believe he will make us an instant world series contender on paper but I don't think he has to either, just a real contender for the division or w/c will be enough IMO. And I feel he can do that bye simply making 3-4 solid but not necc. spectacular moves. And then he can again tweek it next off-season to acquire that 1 big bat or arm that puts us over the top.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by dfs

That's exactly right. I see no reason to believe they've turned the corner.

You're wishcasting on Hannigan and Dickerson. I think it's more likely that one of them never sees 500 at bats in a major league season than they turn into valuable regulars.

Depends what you are expecting from Dickerson and Hanigan. Personally, here is what I feel each is likely to give you next year.

Hanigan - 400AB - .280/.350/.400
Dickerson - 450 AB - .260/.350/.435

Dickerson gets platooned versus lefties and shows some success against right handers while patrolling centerfield for the Reds most of the year.

Hanigan gets most of the catcher time and provides solid hitter with a little power. He also brings good defense to the table.

Is that really wishcasting with those two?

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I honestly think we could package some of our prospects together to net a very good return. Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, Neftali Soto, Juan Francisco, Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola, Carlos Fisher, Drew Stubbs, Kyle Lotzkar, Danny Dorn, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney..... I think if you took almost any of those three guys and put them together in a package (ie: Frazier, Francisco and Roenicke) that you could get a very solid return back for that. If its for a high salary guy from a team looking to shed some salary, then you can take someone away. I don't think there are any untouchables in our farm system right now. We have a whole lot to offer and we can package some guys together and not lose much depth at all either. Now not all of those guys can help from the start next year, but I think by Midseason Frazier, Valaika, Roenicke, Viola (if sent to the pen, although the Reds are going to look at him as a starter next year), Fisher, Stubbs, Thompson, Bailey, Maloney and Dorn could all be able to play in the majors.

Maybe I am crazy though, but I think we could land a very good player with a pacakge of three of those guys, if not less depending on the player and why the team is trading him.

I am not one to ask your opinion and then turn around and to think that you or others are wrong or crazy on here. More often than not I will just assume that I have overlooked something or was just unaware, sometimes either ideas can work out regardless of who’s idea with all the variables, what if’s and unknowns that remain to be manifested.

My only counter thought is, a minor “yeah but“, we are still doing a bit of hopeful reach that another team would give up a solid single player return for faster track prospects that may be one to two years away, other than the minor league pitching that can step up now.

Since those minor league prospects are future major leaguers regulars/or backups and they also appear to be position players and relief pitchers that the Reds will/might need, won’t the Reds themselves be better off holding on to those guys while they grow and develop for another year or two, using them then for replacements or possible upgrades that they themselves will need? Granted some of them are very encouraging and appear to be on a fast track. There is always the money side to, those guys will not cost much on the payroll.

Just guessing here, but if,
Assuming that the Reds want to go younger to stay out of the financial pit falls or quagmires associated with risks and financial constraints.

That brings me back to the Reds starting pitching or relief pitchers which they are short on now and need to give the team a chance to perform well. I am almost coming back to the thought that the Reds will need to stand pat, while trying to sign some lower level free agents to fill the gaps until 2010 or 2011 unless Jocketty could pull off a Oakland/Florida/Tampa type deal and get a large return for some of his pitching which leads me to favor unloading decent pitchers with high contracts to get the large return and to have the cash flow or additional flexibility saved by moving them to purchase other needs that cost more at the same time.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dfs

Sign Edmonds and Edgar and a couple of other old farts. Invest in a young shortstop, and more young arms with upside. Nab a young catcher if you can.

This team isn't ready to compete yet. Build a pitching staff for 10.

Pass on the big hitting left fielder for this year. They're not to the point where somebody like that is going to push them over the top.

I agree, but I have a different twist. Grab young promising (or perhaps undervalued) position players whereever you can find them. If it's LF, fine. If it's SS, great.

The Reds are in a position where they need to add talent regardless of the position that it plays in.

No one should be untouchable this offseason, we need to work on increasing the talent base. If that means filling a couple postions (including pitching) with aging stopgaps, so be it.

[hippie07]

Originally Posted by dfs

That's exactly right. I see no reason to believe they've turned the corner.

You're wishcasting on Hannigan and Dickerson. I think it's more likely that one of them never sees 500 at bats in a major league season than they turn into valuable regulars.

I can accept the starting pitching is an asset, but it does get hurt and it is volatile. Could what they have go through the roof? Sure it could. But it can also crash and burn which means your counting on Ramerez, Livingston or Maloney.

Last years' bullpen was an asset, but it's gone. 3 guys who each gave you 70 good innings (Affeldt,Weathers and Lincoln) will not be back. Essentially, they have to reform the whole bullpen. Bray and Burton have been hurt for sections of the last two seasons and it's entirely likely that Nick Masset matches his lifetime era of 5 instead of the small sample he put up at the end of the year.

I hate to bring up the spectre's of Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, but sometimes young players don't take steps forward. Sometimes they get hurt or regress for other reasons.

There is some talent in the organization, but it's thin and not broad based. There are several pieces of the puzzle that you can squint at and pretend you have a solution, but the whole is not in place yet. At this point shopping for a high priced left fielder makes less sense than getting Cordero did last off season. Will it help you? Sure, but no where near as much as other moves could.

thanks for pointing out my typo.

I see your points, but I totally disagree.

-Weathers and Lincoln carried the bullpen? (Weathers will probably be back BTW, like it or not - me not so much)
-If Hanigan and Dickerson are the touted stars of the team then we stink, but they're not, what they are is above-average defenders in defense-minded position. So, I'm fine w/ whatever offense (or lack there of that they put up) because the addition of Magglio & Furcal (as I suggested) added to the likes of Bruce, Votto, Phillips & EdE, should be enough to provide a formidable offense.
-I can't believe people can complain about the fact that the Reds have a 4-man rotation that is excellent and locked down. If the reds stand pat (accept Hanigan & Dickerson in their respective spots) they should have a healthy pool of 5th starters and injury replacements: Owings, Ramirez, Bailey, Thompson, Maloney, etc. If fans have a problem w/ that depth, than.... wow!!! not many teams (no team) has 7 aces in case a pitcher or 2 comes down w/ an injury. However, we have 2 aces (maybe 3) and that in itself is a rare if not a sole accomplishment in the league. I like the Reds pitching and the depth is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Come on .. I know we're Reds fans so we're more comfortable being pessimistic, but c'mon... get happy. If the right moves are made this offseason... we can really have something here

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

I am not one to ask your opinion and then turn around and to think that you or others are wrong or crazy on here. More often than not I will just assume that I have overlooked something or was just unaware, sometimes either ideas can work out regardless of who’s idea with all the variables, what if’s and unknowns that remain to be manifested.

My only counter thought is, a minor “yeah but“, we are still doing a bit of hopeful reach that another team would give up a solid single player return for faster track prospects that may be one to two years away, other than the minor league pitching that can step up now.

Just talking out loud here, but the Brewers got CC Sabathia for a slugger without a position in AA, 25 year old soft tossing lefty Zach Jackson (who is Matt Maloney, but older and not nearly as good), hard throwing 20 year old low A baller Rob Bryson and a 21 year old light hitting outfielder (plus speed, but a terrible defender) who had an isolated slugging of .079. The Reds have that kind of talent that they could move.

That brings me back to the Reds starting pitching or relief pitchers which they are short on now and need to give the team a chance to perform well. I am almost coming back to the thought that the Reds will need to stand pat, while trying to sign some lower level free agents to fill the gaps until 2010 or 2011 unless Jocketty could pull off a Oakland/Florida/Tampa type deal and get a large return for some of his pitching which leads me to favor unloading decent pitchers with high contracts to get the return and to have the cash flow or additional flexibility saved by moving them to purchase other needs that cost more.

I don't get where the Reds are short on starting or relief pitching. The Reds rotation has 4 guys going forward next year and then a whole slew of guys fighting for #5 between Owings, Bailey, Ramirez, Maloney and Thompson. The bullpen also brings plenty of competition to the party with Roenicke, Fisher, Herrera, Owings, Ramirez and maybe Thompson to go with who is coming back.

[Hoosier Red]

I like the idea of packaging minor leaguers. I agree with Doug, no three minor leaguers project to be gold plated all stars, but there are probably 10-15 guys right now who can project to be solid ML contributors. Similarly, no three players would decimate the minor league system.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Depends what you are expecting from Dickerson and Hanigan. Personally, here is what I feel each is likely to give you next year.

Hanigan - 400AB - .280/.350/.400
Dickerson - 450 AB - .260/.350/.435

Dickerson gets platooned versus lefties and shows some success against right handers while patrolling centerfield for the Reds most of the year.

Hanigan gets most of the catcher time and provides solid hitter with a little power. He also brings good defense to the table.

Is that really wishcasting with those two?

Considering Hannigan hasn't seen that many at bats in four years...yeah I think that's a stretch that he's gonna be able to do that at the major league level. He might slug that, but it would be a park artifact. Getting on base has always been his game so I want to see another 200 at bats before I get real excited. [FWIW Hanigan once signed a ball for one of my kids so he's one of those guys that I want to see succeed]

I think Dickerson is certainly capable of that, but yeah, I think counting on both these guys doing that while starting at major leaguers is at the edge of wishcasting. It certainly is better than handing the starting job to Norris Hopper, but just because they've got options, doesn't make them a player or two away from contending. They need more/better talent at several slots on the 40 man roster.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by hippie07

thanks for pointing out my typo.

I see your points, but I totally disagree.

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by hippie07

Come on .. I know we're Reds fans so we're more comfortable being pessimistic, but c'mon... get happy. If the right moves are made this offseason... we can really have something here

Oh...come spring I'll be predicting 88 wins just like everybody else. But it's a cold October day and I don't believe in magic beans anymore.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Just talking out loud here, but the Brewers got CC Sabathia for a slugger without a position in AA, 25 year old soft tossing lefty Zach Jackson (who is Matt Maloney, but older and not nearly as good), hard throwing 20 year old low A baller Rob Bryson and a 21 year old light hitting outfielder (plus speed, but a terrible defender) who had an isolated slugging of .079. The Reds have that kind of talent that they could move.


I don't get where the Reds are short on starting or relief pitching. The Reds rotation has 4 guys going forward next year and then a whole slew of guys fighting for #5 between Owings, Bailey, Ramirez, Maloney and Thompson. The bullpen also brings plenty of competition to the party with Roenicke, Fisher, Herrera, Owings, Ramirez and maybe Thompson to go with who is coming back.

My focus was on my questions of what do the Reds have in resources to trade, that a motivated team would be interested in and to give the Reds a good return for that trade.

The Reds are not short on guys to assume the starting roles as pitcher or short on guys to fill the roles on relief pitchers. Though the Reds don’t have but a few major league ready/experienced bullpen pitchers signed for next year. Yes the Reds can live with Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and Owings. Pitching has its positive years and its volatile years, then there is the defense behind them that comes into question. I mean none of them would seriously surprise us if they pitched just like they did last year, or the year before in good or bad sense or in numbers.

Since they are not short on starting or relief pitching that would lead back to my thinking that those are what the Reds have to trade from, if they hang on to them, then it would that come down to the next line.

So then what the Reds have to trade are some minor league prospects, then coming back to the origin of my multiple questions or they can try to sign some from the FA market to fill the needs that that feel are most important.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by dfs

Oh...come spring I'll be predicting 88 wins just like everybody else. But it's a cold October day and I don't believe in magic beans anymore.

Unless the Reds can do something with their defense and run support that greatly improves the team over last year beyond relying upon pitchers to do more than they were able to do the last two years that changes the runs scored, runs allowed and run differential, I will be predicting an area of 74 wins again next year. The Reds don't have any magic beans or golden gooses on the way in 2009 to date.

RS
704
RA
800

DIFF
-96

And most of the discussion surrounding the Reds are an example for them as if they are only competing to improve against themselves or last years Reds team, yet they have to compete against St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Houston, not just against improving themselves over last years team.

Chicago Cubs 97 64 .602 -    855 671 +184 
Milwaukee    90 72 .556 7.5  750 689 +61 
Houston      86 75 .534 11   712 743 -31 
St. Louis    86 76 .531 11.5 779 725 +54 
Cincinnati   74 88 .457 23.5 704 800 -96

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

I like the idea of packaging minor leaguers. I agree with Doug, no three minor leaguers project to be gold plated all stars, but there are probably 10-15 guys right now who can project to be solid ML contributors. Similarly, no three players would decimate the minor league system.

That assumes that a trade of three minor league prospects from either A or AA would bring back one player that is needed? When the Reds have question marks at C, CF, LF, SS, and releif pitching? It does not seem traditional that a team would send back two major league players or major league ready players for three AA or A prospects, does it? Unless you could catch an organization before the July trading deadline that is in need to salvage something from a player that is going to leave them at the end of the year.

Suppose that first trade would take up three of the better pitching candidates from Louisville. Now are they thin?

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

My focus was on my questions of what do the Reds have in resources to trade, that a motivated team would be interested in and to give the Reds a good return for that trade.

I think this is a good question to ask for the off season. Unfortunately I don't think the Reds have much to trade. Here is the way I look at it.

SP - Amongst the starting pitching the only one that I think has tradeability is Arroyo. But... IMO the Reds don't have anyone who can replace what Arroyo can do. If the Reds had been in contention last season Arroyo may be getting MVP votes for his second half effort. Bailey, Thompson, Owings, and Ramirez are good options to have but if they have to fill two spots that may be dangerous.

RP - Contrary to some I don't want to see Cordero traded because I don't think you will get value back for him. He is what he is but the Reds don't have anyone that has shown the ability to close. If Burton shows that ability this season it would just make for an even better pen. You can never have too many live arms down in the bullpen.

Position Players - The one that I can see traded is Phillips. Phillips is in the discussion as the second best 2b in the game. He had a down year last season but he is locked up long term to an ok contract. He will begin to get more expensive and in typical reds fan fashion he will become a target. Encarnacion I can see being moved but I don't see him having much value on the market.

Prospects and Core - Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Volquez are all types of players the Reds should target, not trade for. Dickerson and Hannigan have earned the chance to start but I don't know the value those guys would have. Then you get down to the prospects. Outside of Alonso, Bailey Fraizer, and Soto the Reds don't have much trade value. A guy like Valakia may be valued differently in ever organization but it always seems the Cards have players similar to Valakia's game. Stewart seems to have a live arm and some upside but I doubt any team is going to build a trade around him as the PTBNL. Thompson and Ramirez aren't going to warrant much in a trade by themselves. IMO a problem is the Reds aren't as deep as they have been in the past. They don't have that heir apparent ready to come up and fill in for a traded major leaguer.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

Unless the Reds can do something with their defense and run support that greatly improves the team over last year beyond relying upon pitchers to do more than they were able to do the last two years that changes the runs scored, runs allowed and run differential, I will be predicting an area of 74 wins again next year. The Reds don't have any magic beans or golden gooses on the way in 2009 to date.

RS
704
RA
800

DIFF
-96

I know it's a small sample size but they scored more runs than they allowed from the Dunn trade on I believe. Indicator of potential success or just pure luck? Probably a bit of both but their RS/G went up and their RA/G went down. I think the RS had alot to do with Dickerson's and Votto's great end of the season which could make RS quite a bit deceiving. But RA went down is likely a pretty fair indicator in this case. Work on getting that RS up while tweaking the defense at key spots SS and 3B simultaneously and we should be well on our way.