Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

[OnBaseMachine]

Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart

[OnBaseMachine]

I went with Josh Roenicke slightly ahead of Ramon Ramirez. I actually debated on putting Ramirez at #15 and slotting Roenicke in at #16. I think Ramirez could develop into a league average starter but there's also a chance he ends up in the bullpen. If that happens, Roenicke has the higher ceiling IMO.

[Grande Donkey]

Give me Juan Carlos

[mace]

I know that Hanigan's an unsexy vote, but he's a guy who hit well at AAA, gets on base, has good plate discipline, is respected for his defense and by all accounts calls a good game. With decent catchers so hard to come by, that's a heck of a package.

[Kc61]

Roenicke should have been about 8 or 9 so maybe he'll get 15.

[JayBruceFan]

Heisey

[fearofpopvol1]

Ramirez. I think he could fill in the #5 spot in the rotation for 2009 and very easily put up an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range, possibly better. That's not too shabby for a #5 starter (and for the Reds rotation no less)!

[HokieRed]

Hildenbrandt. Ceiling matters.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm bored. Just for kicks:

[Mario-Rijo]

I gotta go with Ramirez here. Roenicke still has a ways to go with his command/control, so while his ceiling is much higher his odds aren't. I like him but I like a few better.

Might I add OBM that you consider replacing Jukich with Wood. Wood has the higher ceiling, 4 years younger and pitched decent at the same level Jukich did better but didn't blow anyone away himself. I understand everyones willingness to think Wood may not make it but he still is only 21 and still is a solid prospect.

[dougdirt]

Carlos Fisher. Big time groundball guy, plenty of strikeouts with good stuff.

[camisadelgolf]

I went with Cozart again. The only question is if he'll hit enough to be a starting shortstop. A starting shortstop with a .750 OPS and superb defense is worth more than a middle reliever or setup man with a 3.50 ERA, in my opinion.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I gotta go with Ramirez here. Roenicke still has a ways to go with his command/control, so while his ceiling is much higher his odds aren't. I like him but I like a few better.

.

Interesting comment about command/control since Ramirez had a 3.81 walk rate at AAA last year, quite a bit higher than Roenicke's 3.23. Roenicke also had a better strikeout rate, his was 9.92. (Ramirez 8.43). Roenicke allowed only 4 home runs in a full minor league season last year.

Ramirez' success last year was his low number of hits allowed, whether that was good fortune and good defense we'll find out presumably. Of the two, Roenicke is a better prospect IMO, has the frame and stuff to be a big time reliever. He got a late start, just a question of a bit more polish.

When you look at Roenicke's physical ability, frame, and success in the high minors, he projects better than many of the guys already selected and should be considered a top ten prospect in this system.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I went with Cozart again. The only question is if he'll hit enough to be a starting shortstop. A starting shortstop with a .750 OPS and superb defense is worth more than a middle reliever or setup man with a 3.50 ERA, in my opinion.

The Reds prospect list is very difficult to rate and I said early on that after the top 3, you could make a credible case for any order for the next 15 or 20 guys. Forgetting the guys below Dayton who there just isn't enough information on yet, the prospect list gets pretty muddled. Kyle Lotzkar has to answer a question about his arm and with Homer Bailey ineligible, no other starter candidate looks to be much more than a #5/swingman type. The bullpen guys look like a bunch of middle relievers with only Stewart and Roenicke with the power arms for a set-up role. Fisher, Manuel etc look like they could be valuable multi-inning guys but that may not be a rare enough commodity to rate them this high. The position player ranks have a lot of useful guys but many don't seem to project as 600 PA Mainstays. Alonso probably is at 1B and Soto probably is at 3B. Beyond those two there are a lot of questions. Can Todd Frazier find a position or will the Reds be forced to deal him to the AL where he can DH? Will Valaika be able to play defensively where his bat would look good? Can Dickerson, Heisey or Stubbs become a day in day out CF or are they all 4th OF/platoon guys who get exposed with too much playing time? Will Juan Francisco make enough contact to play at upper levels? Can Sean Henry or Shaun Cumberland be more than reserves? Will Devin Mesoraco improve enough defensively to stick at catcher? Will Danny Dorn ever be more than a platoon player?

If you think about it, beyond Alonso and Soto, Zach Cozart may have the best shot of being an everyday player of anybody in the system. His glove is solid at SS without question and his bat may just be able to get by at a spot with such a low bar offensively. His 2008 power surge is pretty encouraging. I think he could be a young cheap version of Alex Gonzalez with strong defense, some pop and a weak OBP. Its not ideal, but that can play at SS and be valuable while healthy and cheap. I have him at number 9 on my personal list and he's my pick here just ahead of Roenicke.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

If you think about it, beyond Alonso and Soto, Zach Cozart may have the best shot of being an everyday player of anybody in the system. His glove is solid at SS without question and his bat may just be able to get by at a spot with such a low bar offensively. His 2008 power surge is pretty encouraging. I think he could be a young cheap version of Alex Gonzalez with strong defense, some pop and a weak OBP. Its not ideal, but that can play at SS and be valuable while healthy and cheap. I have him at number 9 on my personal list and he's my pick here just ahead of Roenicke.

I agree that Cozart is underrated in this poll. In particular, it's hard to see how Valaika is rated so much higher. Sure Valaika has a far more advanced bat, but shortstop is such an important defensive position that Cozart's defensive ability has to be given heavy weight.

I have Valaika at 9 and Cozart at 13.