Dont play poker with David Weathers

[Orenda]

So apparently he accepted arbitration after previously stating he was seeking a multi-year deal and wouldn't give the reds a discount to be close to his family. The reds offered arbitration but good ole' stormy had them right were he wanted them. The guy is diabolical.

[redsfandan]

i'm ok with this. now maybe we can pickup a lefty for the last spot. hopefully we can have that lefty, catcher, and/or a leftfielder after today.

[fourrunhomer]

He won't get a discount with arbitration. Hopefully this will be just one piece of the puzzle put into place the next couple of days.

[SarasotaFan]

Originally Posted by summerplight

So apparently he accepted arbitration after previously stating he was seeking a multi-year deal and wouldn't give the reds a discount to be close to his family. The reds offered arbitration but good ole' stormy had them right were he wanted them. The guy is diabolical.

did you think he was going to say "i have no teams interested in me, i only want a 1 year deal, please sign me back". agents can be crooked along with players and BS about what "deals" are on the table and what isn't...

[mroby85]

Completely disgusted right now.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by SarasotaFan

did you think he was going to say "i have no teams interested in me, i only want a 1 year deal, please sign me back". agents can be crooked along with players and BS about what "deals" are on the table and what isn't...

not 100%. But I'm surprised no one went all Mike Stanton and gave him a two year deal. Im not a huge Weathers fan, but there are some teams with some suspect bullpen's like Detroit that I thought might take a nibble on him. Also I pegged Weathers for a "too proud to back down from my statement" kind of guy.

[texasdave]

If you ever find yourself in a good mood and don't feel like you have actually earned all that happiness, just come read Redszone for a couple of minutes. Geez. Weathers accepting arbitration is the Redszone equivalent to the end of the world as we know it. All he has done for the past four years is give the Reds around 290 IP with an ERA right at 3.60. Who needs that kinda pitching? And now the team has to sign him for ONE WHOLE YEAR!! Everyone knows that 2009 was the year Cincinnati was going to the World Series. And now Stormy has just blown that all to hell. Goodbye playoffs this year! Thanks, Stormy ?!??%$#!!

Am I missing something here? People actually "HATE!" him for accepting arbitration? A dose of reality is needed here. Josh Roenicke or Danny Herrera were going to make all the difference? If anything Roenicke's (9.00-ERA) and Herrera's (7.36-ERA) 2008 seasons would seem to indicate that they just might need a little more seasoning. Sample size notwithstanding.

I believe David Weathers is going to give the team another season much like the last four. Would that be so awful? And what would lead a person to believe that Weather's 2009 season is going to fall in line with the previous four? Well, just look at his 2008 stats. Stormy was the epitome of crafty veteran pitching. Let's take a look.

With no one out he faced 113 batters and walked exactly three of them. And two of these walks were of the intentional variety. That leaves one unintentional walk in 111 plate appearances. That hardly screams control problems. It was as if early in the inning Weathers was relying on his defense. (Although how, after watching this team play defense for four years, he came to that conclusion is a bit bewildering). The deeper he got into innings - especially with men on base - he began to pick and choose who he was going to pitch to. Excluding intentional walks, with one or two outs he walked 21 batters in 192 plate appearances. He would pick certain batters and nibble. Hoping they would be overeager, he would give them a chance to get themselves out. If he walked them it was no big deal; he didn't want to pitch to them anyway.

With no one on base Weathers walked five of 143. He was pitching to contact and relying on his defense. With men on he walked 17 of 160 (plus 8 more intentionally).

Did his stategy work? With no one on he had a .940 OPSA. With runners on this dropped to .619 OPSA. With runners in scoring position it took another dip down to .547 OPSA. The end result was an ERA of 3.25 in 69.3 IP. After a slow start to the season his ERA was 2.65 from June 1st on. I would contest that the answer to that question is yes. His strategy did work.

David Weathers accepted arbitration. Is it really all that bad? I don't think so.

[Emin3mShady07]

^^ Those are good points and you are right weathers doesn't really have control problems, but the issue is that he doesn't strike anyone out and in my opinion was very lucky to produce the numbers he did with the reds defense. Strikeouts are the ultimate result for a pitcher because they don't rely on any defense. They are a great indicator of dominance and success. It's extremely rare for a reliever to be effective without strikeouts.

Additionally, using ERA is a poor way to judge a pitcher due to short outings, inherited runners, etc.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07

^^ Those are good points and you are right weathers doesn't really have control problems, but the issue is that he doesn't strike anyone out and in my opinion was very lucky to produce the numbers he did with the reds defense. Strikeouts are the ultimate result for a pitcher because they don't rely on any defense. They are a great indicator of dominance and success. It's extremely rare for a reliever to be effective without strikeouts.
Additionally, using ERA is a poor way to judge a pitcher due to short outings, inherited runners, etc.

ever heard of bobby jenks?

[SarasotaFan]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

ever heard of bobby jenks?

why ? cause he had 1 year where he didn't really come close to getting more Ks than IP ? (2008 - 38 Ks / 61.2 IP)

[Emin3mShady07]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

ever heard of bobby jenks?

Yeah and he has had K/9 rates of 10.3/9, 8.7/9 and this past year 6.0/9 so he has really only had one year with a sub-par K/9 rate. Also the last two years his walk rate has been 2.0/9 and 2.7/9 which is pretty low for a reliever. I personally think the White Sox should be trying to sell high on Bobby Jenks this offseason as his xFIP was the highest it has ever been with the White Sox in his career at 3.86 last season. I think that Jenks will be decent again next year, but not as good as he was in the past unless he regains his strikeout rate

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...lastName=jenks

[Ghosts of 1990]

Weathers is nothing special but every bullpen needs a Weathers, I suppose.

[DTCromer]

I'm guessing everyone here wants us to have 6 rookies in the bullpen. It's as if signing a still effective veteran reliever is bad for team chemistry or something.

[JR+Rose=G.O.A.T]

David Weathers...........

[texasdave]

David Weathers is an anomaly. He is an outlier. When it comes to Stormy you can (heretical statement to follow) throw out the stat sheet. According to the stats in Hardball Times his xFIP is 4.61 since joining Cincinnati in 2005. Over those same 298 1/3 IP his ERA is a full run lower at 3.59. In almost 300 IP that amounts to a lot of luck. And let me stress, once again, that is nearly three hundred innings of pitching. Hardly a small sample size. What about inherited runners you say? Adding up all 16 National League teams, using the numbers in Baseball Prospectus, there were 3,714 inherited runners of which 1,120 scored in 2008. In other words 30.2% of inherited NL runners scored in 2008. I would imagine that number stays fairly constant from year to year. How does Stormy do with regards to inherited runners? Here is a chart:

Year	IR	IS	Pct
2005	15	2	13.3%
2006	27	8	29.6%
2007	19	5	26.3%
2008	30	6	20.0%
			
Total	91	21	23.1%

In no year has he surpassed that 30.2% 'average'. And for all four years combined he is well under it.

I understand the importance of a reliever being able to strike batters out. In a perfect world the Reds' roster would be overflowing with such relievers. But this isn't a perfect world. And the value of a David Weathers should not be overlooked nor dismissed because he happens to be that round peg that somehow fits into the square hole.