Willy Taveras

[Will M]

His 2007 was good & his 2008 was very bad. If 2009 is somewhere in the middle he should not be a starter. He is useful as a backup outfielder.
Plays good defense in CF. Great speed. Even if he never picks up a bat he could help the Reds as the 25th guy who comes in for defense (with Dickeron going to LF) or pinch runs. Since we have an extra bat (Owings) we can afford to carry a guy like this on the team.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

So, you have to choose between Taveras or Bradley.

Is it WT, or MB?

Bradley. Does anyone else here really have to hesitate with that decision?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by alexad

So are we saying Patterson is better than Taveras????? I would hope not. When I said his OBP is not the greatest, I did not say it was so bad he would not help this club. You have to get on base to steal bases. The man played in Colorado and his defense was leaps and bounds better than Patterson. This man can run from one side of the field to the other. SUPER FAST!!!!

What else can we put in Centerfield??? Bruce is a rightfielder, not centerfielder. Dickerson can play there, but is he really ready? Last year was a make or break year for Dickerson and he showed great promise, but I am not sure I can hand him the CF job. We have to have a lead off hitter with the lineup we are going to put out on the field.

Defensively, Patterson is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than Taveras.

However, they are both offensively challenged, particularly in the on-base department.

Thankfully, for Taveras' sake, he can at least put bat on ball, and ball in play, unlike Patterson.

But again, however, when your OBP is so largely AVG driven like Taveras, you need to have an AVG well North of .300 to be worth anything as a leadoff hitter.

And since you brought Dickerson into the comparison discussion, he's also waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better defensively than Taveras.

Speed's a great thing and all, but you need to have good instincts, read the ball off the bat well, and then take the proper routes to catch the ball. Speed only makes up for deficiencies in those departments, which is exactly what Taveras' speed does.

[Unassisted]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Willy Taveras. Sorry to be the spelling nazi around here.

RedEye

You got drummed out of the spelling nazis when you spelled the first name wrong... it's Wily.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Will M

His 2007 was good & his 2008 was very bad. .

Actually his 08 wasn't "very bad" at least it wasn't "very bad" for him. It was actually pretty normal for him. It was the 07 that was abnormal.

Runs Created
05 66.06 per 600 pa
06 66.66 per 600 pa
07 84.54 per 600 pa
08 63.24 per 600 PA

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Bradley. Does anyone else here really have to hesitate with that decision?

While I can't speak for edabbs, his disdain for Bradley's character issues lead me to believe he might choose Taveras over Bradley.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

You got drummed out of the spelling nazis when you spelled the first name wrong... it's Wily.

Hmm...

Yahoo! has it as Willy and so does mlb.

Or perhaps you were referring to this Wily?

[WMR]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Hmm...

Yahoo! has it as Willy and so does mlb.

Or perhaps you were referring to this Wily?

lol awesome wmp photo

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

While I can't speak for edabbs, his disdain for Bradley's character issues lead me to believe he might choose Taveras over Bradley.

For me it would be a neither.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by alexad

WE have tried the hit'em out of the park hitters and it got us NO WHERE FAST. We have a GM who likes small ball and that is what he is doing to the Reds. He has one power stroke in the lineup when he was in St. Louis and Big Mac could hit the ball a long way. He was surrounded by small ball players.

I see the Reds being a small ball team, with a no player hitting over 30 homeruns next year.

The days of Maury Wills bunting for a BH, stealing second, moving over to third on a ground out to the right side then scoring on a SF while Sandy Koufax throws nine shut out innings to win 1-0 are over.

As much as I hate to admit it the Game has changed.

There are more teams now, all with bigger, stronger and faster players who hit he ball harder than the average player of the 1960's. It is very rare now days for team to win a game 1-0.

Having said all that You have to score more runs than you allow in order to win one game or to win in the long haul. Willy Taveras does not increase a teams chances of winning in any way.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by alexad

68 steals last year. 68 steals. 68 steals. We need someone to get on base and steal bases. Your lead off hitter is suppose to get on base and steal bases. His on base percentage may not be awesome, but come on, we have cried about not having a player with speed to play center field and lead off.

I'm just going to keep posting this until it sinks in.

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2
Willy Taveras	2007  408  .367	.382 .62745  78.6%  16.4  .261	12.5	-1.8
Willy Taveras	2006  587  .333	.338 .66099  78.6%   5.1  .242   6.9   -12.4
Willy Taveras	2005  635  .325	.341 .65984  75.6%   4.9  .242   7.3   -15.7

Please note that while in 2008, the year he had 68 stolen bases, he scored 19 less runs than the average CF (RAP). He barely outscored a replacement level player (RAR). Most telling is his EqA which is sort of like batting average combined with base-running. All those stolen bases boosted his EqA all the way up to .238. Keeping in mind that .260 is considered average his number is not all that impressive. All those stolen bases did absolutely nothing to boost his ability to score runs.

Please further note that he stole 33 bases the previous three years. So I wouldn't count on him cranking out 68 SB's every year.

Even more critical is the success rate off all those stolen bases. In the three previous years his success rate barely hovered above 75%, the minimum level for stolen bases to be considered effective.

Please also further note that he's never once scored more runs than an average CF (RAP). He's only had an out rate below 65% once in four years. He's only scored significantly more runs than a replacement level player once in four years.

I think most people here would love to have a speed-demon who is a wrecking crew on the base-paths. I would. But you have to have a guy who can actually get to first base to be able to steal. And you have to have a guy who consistently steals at a 80 to 90% success rate to amount to anything.

Willy T does neither of those things.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Will M

...his 2008 was very bad.

As was his 2006 and 2005.

The hope isn't a season that falls "somewhere between 2007 and 2008". It's "can he replicate his one year of pseudo-success in 2007 despite three years of failure in 2005, 2006 and 2008".

[OUReds]

Here is Tavarez's BABIP chart from fangraphs.

His almost acceptable 2007 season was driven by a .371 BABIP, a season so lucky that it will almost certainly never be duplicated again.

What can we expect from Tavarez with average luck? Well it just so happens that last year his BABIP was almost exactly league average, .298. Last year Tavarez was almost as much an offensive black hole as Patterson, but while Patterson was extremely BABIP unlucky last year (.217, yikes), Tavarez's 2008 is about what we can expect from him on average.

One season, Tavarez is going to be BABIP unlucky, something he has avoided up to this point. In that year, his offensive sucktitude will almost certainly result in some kind of rift in the space-time continuum.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by OUReds

One season, Tavarez is going to be BABIP unlucky, something he has avoided up to this point. In that year, his offensive sucktitude will almost certainly result in some kind of rift in the space-time continuum.

... and yet even though he should be viewed similarly to radioactive waste we have a GM who is seemingly handling him when he should be anywhere near him.

[Unassisted]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Hmm...

Yahoo! has it as Willy and so does mlb.

Or perhaps you were referring to this Wily?

I saw him play against the Reds when he was an Astro in 2005. The spelling of his name on the scoreboard at Minute Maid was "Wily." I remember distinctly that it was the same spelling as WMP. It's possible he has adopted the current spelling since then, but I know what I saw 3 years ago. Unfortunately, I can't find documentation of a spelling change, so I'll have to concede on this one for now.