Willy Taveras

[Scrap Irony]

The evil part of me wants to see the Cardinals sign Tavares and he go 340/400/350 with 100 steals and 125 runs scored. Imagine the pandemonium as Wily Willy comes to the Queen City and goes 4-5 with eight stolen bases while the Cardinals win 4-3! Computers across Redszone would explode!

Then, reality slaps me in the face and I realize Taveras, at his best, should be a fifth OF and pinch runner. And that Jocketty has stated he really liked him. And that the Reds are currently not enamored with Dickerson (for whatever reason). And that Cincinnati has holes Tavares could fill (though not well) at CF and leadoff. And that Dusty seems to like him.

Sigh.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Bradley. Does anyone else here really have to hesitate with that decision?

Sure, if $$ is the same, it's an easy call to say Bradley.

What if Bradley is at 4 years, 60 million and Taveras is at one year, 2 million?

Also Bradley is a lock for a starter, Taveras is a body to throw in the mix for depth. I don't think anyone that supports the Taveras acquision is saying he should be handed the job. Obviously, Bradley's contract would dictate that he's handed the job for the length of the contract.

I just can't believe all the angst here over possibly signing a nontendered backup OF. Where is all the hate for the Nix signing? He sucks worse. How come no one called for Walt's head on that one? They would both hopefully be backup players because hopefully Walt adds a starting OF and Dickerson plays well. If Dickerson can't outplay Taveras (which is a possibility) then he deserves to be benched or sent back to AAA.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I just can't believe all the angst here over possibly signing a nontendered backup OF.

The angst comes from the fact that we all watched the Dusty start Patterson in CF and leadoff ad nauseum last season. If I had any confidence that he would actually use Willy T as a backup, I wouldn't mind the signing. But I don't have any confidence in that.

In a philosophical sense, I'd rather see the Reds spend a lot of money for something good than to spend a little money for something terrible. Maybe that's just me.

[Rounding Third]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Sure, if $$ is the same, it's an easy call to say Bradley.

What if Bradley is at 4 years, 60 million and Taveras is at one year, 2 million?

Also Bradley is a lock for a starter, Taveras is a body to throw in the mix for depth. I don't think anyone that supports the Taveras acquision is saying he should be handed the job. Obviously, Bradley's contract would dictate that he's handed the job for the length of the contract.

I just can't believe all the angst here over possibly signing a nontendered backup OF. Where is all the hate for the Nix signing? He sucks worse. How come no one called for Walt's head on that one? They would both hopefully be backup players because hopefully Walt adds a starting OF and Dickerson plays well. If Dickerson can't outplay Taveras (which is a possibility) then he deserves to be benched or sent back to AAA.

Do you remember last year?

[pahster]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

What if Bradley is at 4 years, 60 million and Taveras is at one year, 2 million?

Then the correct decision would be to abstain. Bradley can't be trusted to stay healthy and Taveras isn't worth a roster spot, let alone $2 million.

I just can't believe all the angst here over possibly signing a nontendered backup OF. Where is all the hate for the Nix signing? He sucks worse. How come no one called for Walt's head on that one? They would both hopefully be backup players because hopefully Walt adds a starting OF and Dickerson plays well. If Dickerson can't outplay Taveras (which is a possibility) then he deserves to be benched or sent back to AAA.

Nix signed a minor league contract and has pretty good minor league numbers. Jocketty's quotes lead me to believe that he wants Taveras to start and lead off. The situations the two players appear to be in are starkly different.

And based on minor league performance, I very little doubt that Dickerson will outperform Taveras.

[TRF]

Also Bradley is a lock for a starter, Taveras is a body to throw in the mix for depth. I don't think anyone that supports the Taveras acquision is saying he should be handed the job. Obviously, Bradley's contract would dictate that he's handed the job for the length of the contract.

Keep saying that. Even though Walt has clearly stated they are looking at him as a leadoff hitter and starting CF.

And if that is the case, welcome to last year.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OUReds

Here is Tavarez's BABIP chart from fangraphs.

His almost acceptable 2007 season was driven by a .371 BABIP, a season so lucky that it will almost certainly never be duplicated again.

What can we expect from Tavarez with average luck? Well it just so happens that last year his BABIP was almost exactly league average, .298. Last year Tavarez was almost as much an offensive black hole as Patterson, but while Patterson was extremely BABIP unlucky last year (.217, yikes), Tavarez's 2008 is about what we can expect from him on average.

One season, Tavarez is going to be BABIP unlucky, something he has avoided up to this point. In that year, his offensive sucktitude will almost certainly result in some kind of rift in the space-time continuum.

And for those members of the Milton Bradley Fan Club (or its sister organization, I Milton Bradley), his BABIP last season was .388.

Funny how no one wants to acknowledge that when they speak of good ol' Milt and handing him a mult-year deal.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by RedEye

The angst comes from the fact that we all watched the Dusty start Patterson in CF and leadoff ad nauseum last season.

In the beginning of the season, Bruce was in the minors.
At the end of the season, injuries and trades decimated the team's OF depth.

What were the alternatives?

1. Bruce and/or Dickerson could've been called up earlier. Well, that's all on Walt and Wayne. Dusty can't play the guy if he's in AAA. Once the kids arrived, he did give them playing time.

2. Harriston could've gotten more time in CF. Harriston was another non roster player that barely made the roster. No one foresaw him having a career year. I can't remember in detail what time periods Harriston was hurt and what time periods he was forced to play SS, but that also played a part in Patterson getting more CF time

3. Hopper? He was hurt much of the season and IMO it's debatable whether he's as good as Patterson.

Does that logic make sense? I am not talking down to you, but it's a myth that Dusty played Patterson out of stupidity. His hand was pretty much forced. With Jr and Dunn on the corners, it made sense to have a good glove in CF and show some patience with Patterson (early in the season).

That is why I want Walt to get some OF depth. Taveras may not be a gold glove CF like Patterson was, but let's look at the alternatives if we get an OF injury. Do you want to be forced to play a corner OF out of position or be forced to call up a minor leaguer that will hit/OBP worse than Janish?

We all get the fact that Taveras' walk rate is below average for a leadoff hitter. We all get the fact that he's an OBP risk, etc. But it's not as if the Reds can pull someone out of their minor leagues that is going to be better to fill his spot. The Reds also have a lot of holes to fill and a limited budget to do it. I don't mind them cutting corners a little bit on backup OF. If that leaves more money to get a quality LF, that is a good thing.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Rounding Third

Do you remember last year?

Yes, see my previous response to RedEye, explaining why Patterson ended up with so much playing time.

[westofyou]

Wait... first it was Bowden, then O'Brien and then Krivsky... now Jocketty is no longer capable of running the Reds?

Speed never slumps, that's the Branch Rickey credo, I think that many still believe in this credo to:

Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of the hit-and-run.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by pahster

Nix signed a minor league contract and has pretty good minor league numbers. Jocketty's quotes lead me to believe that he wants Taveras to start and lead off. The situations the two players appear to be in are starkly different.

But the Reds also said during trade discussions that they were turned off by Taveras low OBP. Walt is courting a FA, of course he is going to be upbeat/positive. Just like the Reds promised Affedlt an opportunity to be in the mix for the rotation.

And based on minor league performance, I very little doubt that Dickerson will outperform Taveras.

But that is what makes baseball interesting. Two years ago, I bet most people on this board thought Homer would be at least an adequate #5 by 2009. Now he's in limbo. Minor league stats are a nice tool for predicting future performance, but they are not full proof. 100 ABs at the big league level likewise are encouraging, but not proof. I hope Dickerson does seize the job, but next year if he's the starting CF, the league is going to put him under the microscope and pick apart all his weaknesses. It's not a given that he will perform well.

Also, the Reds need to plan for the contingency if Dickerson gets hurt. They need a cheap back OFs that can cover all positions. I'd rather not have the plan be to shift Bruce to CF in the event of an injury. I'd like to keep him in RF all next year and let him worry about improving there.

[OUReds]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Also, the Reds need to plan for the contingency if Dickerson gets hurt. They need a cheap back OFs that can cover all positions.

I agree, but why should that contingency plan include Tavarez or a similarly wretched player? There will be cheaper and better players available, even for a lowly fifth outfielder slot.

[nate]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Sure, if $$ is the same, it's an easy call to say Bradley.

What if Bradley is at 4 years, 60 million and Taveras is at one year, 2 million?

Then neither.

Also Bradley is a lock for a starter, Taveras is a body to throw in the mix for depth. I don't think anyone that supports the Taveras acquision is saying he should be handed the job.

This guy named "Walt Jocketty" disagrees with your assessment.

They are most interested in Willy Taveras. In fact, Walt Jocketty called Taveras agent Saturday morning. “I was the first call. He’s not going to sign on the first,” Jocketty said. “I think it’s going to take some time. I let him know there’s interest. We think he could fill that center field/leadoff role.” Taveras, non-tendered by Colorado, is only 26. He hit .251 with an .308 on-base percentage last year. He led the majors with 68 steals in the 75 attempts. He was much better at the plate in 2007, hitting .320 with a .367 on-base. He lacks power (career slugging of .337).

I just can't believe all the angst here over possibly signing a nontendered backup OF. Where is all the hate for the Nix signing? He sucks worse. How come no one called for Walt's head on that one?

He signed for $600k on a minor league deal with incentives. The most he'll make is $1.1mm. It's more likely Nix is organizational fodder.

They would both hopefully be backup players because hopefully Walt adds a starting OF and Dickerson plays well. If Dickerson can't outplay Taveras (which is a possibility) then he deserves to be benched or sent back to AAA.

Hope springs eternal.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

In the beginning of the season, Bruce was in the minors.
At the end of the season, injuries and trades decimated the team's OF depth.

What were the alternatives?

1. Bruce and/or Dickerson could've been called up earlier. Well, that's all on Walt and Wayne. Dusty can't play the guy if he's in AAA. Once the kids arrived, he did give them playing time.

2. Harriston could've gotten more time in CF. Harriston was another non roster player that barely made the roster. No one foresaw him having a career year. I can't remember in detail what time periods Harriston was hurt and what time periods he was forced to play SS, but that also played a part in Patterson getting more CF time

3. Hopper? He was hurt much of the season and IMO it's debatable whether he's as good as Patterson.

Does that logic make sense? I am not talking down to you, but it's a myth that Dusty played Patterson out of stupidity. His hand was pretty much forced. With Jr and Dunn on the corners, it made sense to have a good glove in CF and show some patience with Patterson (early in the season).

That is why I want Walt to get some OF depth. Taveras may not be a gold glove CF like Patterson was, but let's look at the alternatives if we get an OF injury. Do you want to be forced to play a corner OF out of position or be forced to call up a minor leaguer that will hit/OBP worse than Janish?

We all get the fact that Taveras' walk rate is below average for a leadoff hitter. We all get the fact that he's an OBP risk, etc. But it's not as if the Reds can pull someone out of their minor leagues that is going to be better to fill his spot. The Reds also have a lot of holes to fill and a limited budget to do it. I don't mind them cutting corners a little bit on backup OF. If that leaves more money to get a quality LF, that is a good thing.

I think the chorus of objections in these parts has more to do with CP playing CF and batting leadoff. He'd likely do the same with WT--which would arguably be worse because, from what I've seen, WT is not nearly the fielder that CP is. WT is fast and that's about it.

Look, I honestly think the Reds would be better off re-signing Hairston and then responding to a possible injury by bringing up Stubbs or Dorn and slotting them low in the lineup with some combo of Dickerson and Keppinger in the leadoff spot. Hopper plays the role that you envision for Taveras as the AAAA OF in case of emergency. The team already has players who are better than WT, so his acquisition would just be sunk cost.

If Walt wants OF depth, I really hope he goes out and signs players who have skills that add to the roster rather than repeat what it already has. That means taking a chance on Baldelli or Bradley or Dye or even Burrell. But please, no Willy Taveras.

[nate]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

And for those members of the Milton Bradley Fan Club (or its sister organization, I Milton Bradley), his BABIP last season was .388.

Funny how no one wants to acknowledge that when they speak of good ol' Milt and handing him a mult-year deal.

His career line is .280/.370/.457. Even if last year's stats were inflated by a lucky BABIP, he's still a good hitter.

Whether or not he's a fit for the Reds is another debate.