Willy Taveras

[nate]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

That is why I want Walt to get some OF depth. Taveras may not be a gold glove CF like Patterson was, but let's look at the alternatives if we get an OF injury. Do you want to be forced to play a corner OF out of position or be forced to call up a minor leaguer that will hit/OBP worse than Janish?

The latter. Really. If we're not going all-in, let a youngster get some seasoning. Let's quit wasting money and resource on one-trick ponies like Wily Taveras.

We all get the fact that Taveras' walk rate is below average for a leadoff hitter. We all get the fact that he's an OBP risk, etc. But it's not as if the Reds can pull someone out of their minor leagues that is going to be better to fill his spot. The Reds also have a lot of holes to fill and a limited budget to do it. I don't mind them cutting corners a little bit on backup OF. If that leaves more money to get a quality LF, that is a good thing.

The bolded part is exactly why you don't waste money on Wily Taveras.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by nate

His career line is .280/.370/.457. Even if last year's stats were inflated by a lucky BABIP, he's still a good hitter.

Whether or not he's a fit for the Reds is another debate.

Juan Rivera's career line is .284/.331/.468. And he is treated like an infectious disease while Bradley is a monster.

Go figure.

[westofyou]

Wily Taveras is a lot like the Reds first (and Baseballs) first Cuban player, Armando Marsans. he was pretty much done by 30 as well, so I think the GM's around the league figure that Taveras has about 3 years until he's in Curtis Goodwin country.

AT BATS                     AB        H       EBH      BB      RC/G      PA     

Armando Marsans            2109      576       83      -51     -.52     2356   
Willy Taveras              1973      558       80      -80     -.78     2170

[pahster]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

But the Reds also said during trade discussions that they were turned off by Taveras low OBP. Walt is courting a FA, of course he is going to be upbeat/positive. Just like the Reds promised Affedlt an opportunity to be in the mix for the rotation.

Yeah. This is why I don't understand why Jocketty is expressing any interest at all in Taveras. He doesn't bring anything to the table as a player and Walt seemingly knows this, yet still appears quite interested in signing him.

But that is what makes baseball interesting. Two years ago, I bet most people on this board thought Homer would be at least an adequate #5 by 2009. Now he's in limbo. Minor league stats are a nice tool for predicting future performance, but they are not full proof. 100 ABs at the big league level likewise are encouraging, but not proof. I hope Dickerson does seize the job, but next year if he's the starting CF, the league is going to put him under the microscope and pick apart all his weaknesses. It's not a given that he will perform well.

Also, the Reds need to plan for the contingency if Dickerson gets hurt. They need a cheap back OFs that can cover all positions. I'd rather not have the plan be to shift Bruce to CF in the event of an injury. I'd like to keep him in RF all next year and let him worry about improving there.

I think the minor league performances of Dickerson and Taveras are different than Homer's of two years ago because of the level of competation. As of two years ago, Bailey had yet to pitch in the upper minors while Dickerson and Taveras have both played there. Performance in AAA is much more suggestive of major league ability than is performance at high-A.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I voted against One-Eyed Willy, only if they plan on taking a bunch of AB's from Dickerson and batting him every day.

If Taveras is cheap and nothing more than a PR and 4th or 5th OF, I'm not sure if it's that big a deal. I would take him over Hopper (not that it's saying much...LOL).

Question. Willy is 26. He'll be 27 on Christmas. Is it possible that he develops any further or are players with his skillset pretty much a done deal by 27?

Looking at VORP, I see where Patterson was horrendous in 2008. I think something like 1037th out of 1038 last year (-18 something). Willy was at least positive (+2) and ranked somewhere in the 300's. Of course, I also realize that Patterson was BABIP unlucky and Willy was about average. With that said, is Patterson's glove really THAT much better to warrant the comments I read on here that people would take him over Taveras? If the price were the same, would most really take Patterson over Willy?

As long as he doesn't hit leadoff every day (like Patterson) and take too many AB's from Dickerson, and his signing doesn't prohibit them from signing a big LF bat, I'm not sure if it's that big a deal. If the worry is more about our manager and how he'll use Willy, then we have bigger problems anyway.

As I mentioned, I voted no on Willy, but I'm just curious what people think.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Looking at VORP, I see where Patterson was horrendous in 2008. I think something like 1037th out of 1038 last year (-18 something). Willy was at least positive (+2) and ranked somewhere in the 300's. Of course, I also realize that Patterson was BABIP unlucky and Willy was about average. With that said, is Patterson's glove really THAT much better to warrant the comments I read on here that people would take him over Taveras? If the price were the same, would most really take Patterson over Willy?

Both are terrible. In an ideal world, neither would play for the Reds. Plus, Dusty is terrible at knowing how to use their skill sets to help the team. Hence, since both are fast and play CF, they are the de facto leadoff batters when in the lineup. That's a recipe for very bad baseball.

In a "lesser of two evils" scenario, I think you choose CP. At least he brings top notch defense to the equation. If he bats in the eighth slot on an already very strong offensive team that needs CF defense, for instance, I think you could make his case for a roster spot. You'd have to consider the tradeoff in run differential between good OF defense and a black hole hitting before the pitcher. I'm willing to grant that for some teams with specific lineup and payroll dimensions, it might work. We all know that the Reds in 2009 are not that team.

WT, in my opinion, brings neither good defense nor good offense. He has basically one skill--speed--and he doesn't use it very well (doesn't get on base enough on O, doesn't take good routes to the ball on D and uses his feet to make up for it rather than profit from it). To make matters worse, he doesn't have the power to take advantage of GABP's dimensions when he does make contact (CP does have a bit more pop now and again). The only way WT puts up stats worth looking at are when he is EXTREMELY lucky (as he was a few years ago with a .371 BABIP). Any player can put up good stats when luck is on his side--but that's no proof that a team should invest in him. I don't think you want WT on any team if you can avoid it.

[nate]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Juan Rivera's career line is .284/.331/.468. And he is treated like an infectious disease while Bradley is a monster.

Go figure.

I guess you'd have to take that issue up with whoever has that opinion.

My opinion is that Rivera is probably a better defender than Bradley. Bradley is much better at not making outs. Neither are guys you want to rely on.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Both are terrible. In an ideal world, neither would play for the Reds. Plus, Dusty is terrible at knowing how to use their skill sets to help the team. Hence, since both are fast and play CF, they are the de facto leadoff batters when in the lineup. That's a recipe for very bad baseball.

In a "lesser of two evils" scenario, I think you choose CP. At least he brings top notch defense to the equation. If he bats in the eighth slot on an already very strong offensive team that needs CF defense, for instance, I think you could make his case for a roster spot. You'd have to consider the tradeoff in run differential between good OF defense and a black hole hitting before the pitcher. I'm willing to grant that for some teams with specific lineup and payroll dimensions, it might work. We all know that the Reds in 2009 are not that team.

WT, in my opinion, brings neither good defense nor good offense. He has basically one skill--speed--and he doesn't use it very well (doesn't get on base enough on O, doesn't take good routes to the ball on D and uses his feet to make up for it rather than profit from it). To make matters worse, he doesn't have the power to take advantage of GABP's dimensions when he does make contact (CP does have a bit more pop now and again). The only way WT puts up stats worth looking at are when he is EXTREMELY lucky (as he was a few years ago with a .371 BABIP). Any player can put up good stats when luck is on his side--but that's no proof that a team should invest in him. I don't think you want WT on any team if you can avoid it.

Thanks for the response. Good stuff. Question. I know in the past that GABP neutralized their HR tendency by suppressing ground balls. Is this still the case and if so wouldn't that be better suited for a slap hitter that can't get the ball out of the infield like Taveras?

You make good points and I agree we should probably stay away from this guy because we can't trust Dusty, but if we knew Dusty would use him properly (spot start in CF, PR, etc.) then I don't know if he be a horrible signing as long as he's cheap and he's the 25th guy.

[flyer85]

Colorado threw him overboard, I can't believe the Reds want a wet Willy.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by flyer85

Colorado threw him overboard, I can't believe the Reds want a wet Willy.

Not to defend Willy but Colorado does have Ryan Spilborghs to play CF. They have no real need to keep Willy.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

but it's a myth that Dusty played Patterson out of stupidity. His hand was pretty much forced.

I'll take rewriting history to suit my agenda for $100 Alex.

* Before the season Dusty bragged that he could lure players to Cincy. Patterson played for Dusty in Chicago. Do you really think Dusty had no input whatsoever in Wayne's efforts to bring him to town? Too much of a coincidence for a reasonable person to ignore.

* Do you really think that at Spring training Dusty didn't make any recommendations on which players started in Louisville and which in Cincinnati? Really? He just meekly sits in the corner and Wayne bossed him around?

* Once the season started who make's out the lineup? Are you wanting us to believe that Dusty doesn't and some other person does? Who? The guy in section 518? What unknown forces inked Patterson into the leadoff spot for the months of April, May and June?

* Later in the season, why did we continue to see Patterson in CF and Dickerson in LF? Was a law passed in Congress that forced poor ole Dusty to play Patterson in CF? He could have just as easily reversed them to give Dickerson more time at a position he was likely to play in 2009. I mean, call me silly, but actually evaluating a player likely to be around in the future seems to make sense. Or something.

* Who sends out the pinch hitters? Doesn't The Dusty have some shred of input in those decisions? Or do you want us to believe he meekly sits at the top of the stairs adjusting his sweatbands while someone else sent Patterson out the second most times of the entire team. Did he not have any other bench options for pinch hitting?

Sorry Redread, thinking that Dusty was forced to use Patterson just doesn't stand the scrutiny of reason and facts.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Juan Rivera's career line is .284/.331/.468. And he is treated like an infectious disease while Bradley is a monster.

Go figure.

Milton Bradley (career): 8.51 PA per BB
Juan Rivera (career): 15.45 PA ber BB

I know which of those two I'd put my money on maintaining an acceptable level of production over the course of a multi-year contract, looking at just numbers alone.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by BRM

Not to defend Willy but Colorado does have Ryan Spilborghs to play CF. They have no real need to keep Willy.

Willy was more suited to play CF in Coors(so big you have to have speed) than probably any other home ballpark.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Milton Bradley (career): 8.51 PA per BB
Juan Rivera (career): 15.45 PA ber BB

I know which of those two I'd put my money on maintaining an acceptable level of production over the course of a multi-year contract, looking at just numbers alone.

I guess there is always a stat that will work for any side of an argument.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by flyer85

Willy was more suited to play CF in Coors(so big you have to have speed) than probably any other home ballpark.

He may have the speed but he really isn't a good defender overall. He's about average out there. Either way, I don't blame the Rockies. I'd take Spilborghs over Taveras every day and twice on Sunday.