Do we have the best rotation in the NL?

[dunner13]

Looking around the league I would have to say that these teams have the best rotations...
Cubs
1. Zambrano
2. Harden
3. Dempster
4. Lilly
5. Marquis

DBacks
1. Webb
2. Haren
3. Davis
4. Scherzer
5. Petit

Phils
1. Hamels
2. Myers
3. Blanton
4. Moyer
5. Happ

Reds
1. Harang
2. Volquez
3. Arroyo
4. Cueto
5. Owings/Bailey

From my perspective I would have to say we are probably third right now, with the cubs as first and the phils are very close second. If either team gets lowe or if the cubs get peavy they would be pretty far ahead of everyone else.
However if Harang regains form, Volquez and arroyo pitch like last year and Cueto and Bailey take some steps forward we could potentially have the best rotation in baseball.
I didnt include the marlins but looking at their pitchers they might have the most talent there just really young and inexperienced.

[mroby85]

the cubs are better for sure imo, the Dbacks could be argue, but I would put the Reds 2nd in the NL behind the cubs.

[kentjett]

I'd leave that order exactly how it is. The Reds have potential to be in the top 3 but they are not there yet.

[Emin3mShady07]

It really depends on what kind of year that Harang and the 5th starter has and the development of Johnny Cueto. I personally would say the the D' Backs have the best rotation looking at the xFIPs and ERA+ from last year, and I'll even use 2007 numbers to make Harang a little more comparable because he had an uncharacteristic down year last year.

Webb - 139 ERA+ 3.46 xFIP
Haren - 138 ERA+ 3.38 xFIP
Davis - 107 ERA+ 4.46 xFIP
Scherzer - 151 ERA+ 3.33 xFIP in 56 innings
Petit - 107 ERA+ 4.65 xFIP in 56.3 innings

Harang (2007) - 125 ERA+ 3.81xFIP
Volquez - 140 ERA+ 4.02 xFIP
Cueto - 94 ERA+ 4.62 xFIP
Arroyo - 95 ERA+ 4.34 xFIP
Owings - 77 ERA+ 5.06 xFIP in 100 innings

So based on these numbers, it is wasy to see that Arizona has a huge edge, but if Cueto develops and Volquez does not revert back to his xFIP and Harang turns it around, the reds could challenge the D'Backs, but I would have to say now the D'Backs have the edge.

[redsfandan]

Nice thread idea dunner13. The rotation definitely has the potential and that alone could net us 82+ wins. Just like Slim, I could see the DBacks 1st if Scherzer doesn't have any problems.

[WildcatFan]

The biggest piece that sets the Cubs apart is that they don't have a question mark in the fifth spot. Knowing what you're going to get every single game from 1-5 really cements a rotation.

[Emin3mShady07]

Originally Posted by WildcatFan

The biggest piece that sets the Cubs apart is that they don't have a question mark in the fifth spot. Knowing what you're going to get every single game from 1-5 really cements a rotation.

Well, in my opinion the Cubs rotation will not be as good next year as they were this year. The Dumpster had a 2.96 ERA with a 3.94 xFIP and that will most likely normalize, and same goes for harden who had a 1.77 ERA with a 3.64 xFIP, plus harden is always a health risk and who knows how many innings he pitches next year. Marquis and Lilly are average, not great but average and Zambrano is not the ace he once was.

[redsfandan]

Marquis could easily underperform the other 5th starters at a much higher cost. Alot depends on what he does, how much Harden will pitch, and if Dempster can repeat his '08 success.

[UPRedsFan]

I think there's a distinct possibility the Reds could have the best rotation in the NL. (When's the last time we could wonder about this question? 1990?)
I agree they're 3rd or 4th now. But it's not unrealistic to hope for the following:

1. Harang returns to old self
2. Cueto does what Volquez did in '08 (everyone seems to think he's got better stuff)
3. Owings or Ramirez will do for the 5th spot (reliable performance) what Marquis does for the Cubs.

Note: I'd take Bailey out of the equation for now.

[UPRedsFan]

Just realized we're forgetting some Cubs.

It could be:
Zambrano
Dempster
Harden
Lilly
Marshall/ or Rich Hill? (what's his situation?)

[Orodle]

I would agree that we have the potential to have one of the top rotations......but we aren't there yet.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by UPRedsFan

Just realized we're forgetting some Cubs.

It could be:
Zambrano
Dempster
Harden
Lilly
Marshall/ or Rich Hill? (what's his situation?)

Marshall has been rumored in just about every Cubs trade for awhile so he may not even be there in march. Hill has fallen ...




ALOT.

[CesarGeronimo]

I'm hoping that Harang is having a great offseason with his workouts. Besides possibly being overworked last year, I thought he looked like he had gained some weight, which might be a problem given that his dramatic improvement with the Reds was credited in part to the weight he lost after leaving Oakland. I can't wait to hear what his velocity is in spring training because I think that will tell us a lot about whether he's back to his old self or not.

I wish the Cincinnati media would get in touch with guys like Alex Gonzalez and Harang in the offseason to give us updates on how they're doing. Why does the current condition of Gonzalez have to be such a mystery? If he's doing well in his recovery, I don't know why he wouldn't be willing to talk about that.

[dunner13]

I realize that our rotation has some questions (harangs health, can volquez repeat, does cueto pitch up to his potential, who is the 5th starter) but if you go look at the rotations of the other teams in the NL you can see how we could compete this year. I would take owings or bailey as my 5th starter over just about every other 5th starter in the NL including Jason Marquis. If our pitching is as good as it should be this year then we can surive our subpar offense and still compete.

[CesarGeronimo]

Dunner, I generally agree with you about how the Reds' rotation could match up with the best in the NL if things go right with the questions you mention. I hope Owings will be the answer as the fifth starter, but if he's not I think Ramon Ramirez has a better shot to fill that spot well next season than Bailey. If you look at Bailey's numbers from last year, including AAA, I don't see much hope for him making a positive impact in the majors this year.

Homer Bailey 2008
AAA - IP 111.1, H 118, BB 46, K 96, ERA 4.77, WHIP 1.47
Reds - IP 36.1, H 59, BB 17, K 18, ERA 7.93, WHIP 2.09

Ramon Ramirez 2008
AAA- IP 99.1, H 76, BB 34, K 93, ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.19
Reds - IP 27.0, H 17, BB 11, K 21, ERA 2.67, WHIP 1.04