Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

The numbers have been posted time and time again. Even his "good" years are bad.

He's never scored more runs than an average Center Fielder. Never.

Okay, but what center fielder on the Reds HAS? What FA out there with a shot of signing with us HAS? The list is pretty short.

And the amount of runs he scores is not wholly dependant upon him. There are others on the team. I'm not very familiar with Colorado, but his years in Houston...he was surrounded by Berkman and a bunch of blackholes at the plate. I fully believe that if he performed exactly as he did in his stint in Houston...he'll be considerably more productive in OUR lineup due to the players surrounding him.

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by icehole3

You thought we we're going to compete with the Yankees, did ya?

Tough enough competing with the Cubs $

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Doug, youre well respected in my book, whats the difference between Taveras and Freel, if it's huge then I understand the belly ache, if not then its replacing Freel with Taveras in my book.

Career OPS+

Freel 91

Willy T 72

[BCubb2003]

There's definitely a school of thought at work here, that goes against the RedsZone grain, for the most part. So here are the questions I'd like to see asked and answered, by the media and Reds minds, to dig a little deeper behind the "speedy leadoff guy" stereotype:

1. Defense up the middle is important, especially in centerfield, so how does Taveras' defense rate: Excellent, above average, slightly above average, or overrated because of his speed and lack of offense?

2. Taveras' speed is highly touted, but there's this old school idea that "you can't steal first." Does Taveras get on base often enough for his speed to make a difference?

3. How would a scouting report compare Taveras with Dickerson and Patterson on offensive and defensive skills?

4. If Taveras is closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron, will there be enough offense on the corners to make up for the light-hitting supposedly decent defense up the middle?

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Freel got on base at a decent clip. You ever think that you might be wrong?

Dang, I didnt know Freel was so valuable, good gawd

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Dang, I didnt know Freel was so valuable, good gawd

What does that supposed to mean?

I'll ask again. Is it possible that you are wrong?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Krusty

Even if Dickerson tears the cover off the ball, this team badly lacked depth in the outfield. They took Freel and Patterson's contracts off the books. Now who the heck would you rather have.......Freel and Patterson for 2009 or a cheaper Dickerson/Taveras?

You put Dickerson out there with Bruce, you still need a third outfielder. And who are the backups? If acquiring Willy Taveras leads to the demise of the Cincinnati Reds, I will be gladly give up my love for baseball.

Time to break out my Cubs/Nats hats.

Honestly? I'd rather have Freel/Patterson. Freel>Taveras. easily. Patterson likely has more power than Dickerson, but is Taveras-like in getting on base. Dickerson/Patterson is nearly a wash defensively, Freel/Taveras the same.

Actually it's the same damn thing. Hell at least the Nats are interesting.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Doug, youre well respected in my book, whats the difference between Taveras and Freel, if it's huge then I understand the belly ache, if not then its replacing Freel with Taveras in my book.

Ryan Freel is an average center fielder when healthy. Willy Taveras is a well below average center fielder all the time.

The other difference is, Freel was a backup. Taveras is going to start EVERY day.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Freel got on base at a decent clip. You ever think that you might be wrong?

Ryan Freel: +91 Adjusted OPS+
Willy Taveras: +72 Adjusted OPS+
Juan Castro: +56 Adjusted OPS+

When you're closer to Juan Castro than you are Ryan Freel, you're not good.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

This is a signing to improve our outfield defense and team speed/baserunning, 2 areas that were so far beyond pathetic last year that I'm amazed it hasn't been focused on more.

Except it's been shown that he really isn't going to improve the defense -- especially not from what Corey Patterson provided last year (despite his glaring deficiencies at the plate, he was a plus defender in CF).

And, the Cubs stole 2 more bases than the Reds did last year. So, explain to me how stolen bases / baserunning was really the dealbreaker in the NL Central

We didn't lose anything with this signing. We didn't have a leadoff man, we didn't have enough OF'ers, and we didn't have a serious SB threat. Now we do and it didn't cost us anything other than some dough. Would I have preferred a BETTER player? Sure, but he is NOT Patterson. (this wasn't aimed at you...just ranting in general)

We didn't get anything either -- we still don't have a leadoff man, and our "SB threat" doesn't get on base enough to really give the opposition pause for concern more than 1 time per game. I suppose yes, he is an outfielder and the team does need more outfielders, but he isn't being brought in for depth -- he is being brought in to start and play everyday.

He also costs the team money, and PAs that could be given to better players.

Facts are facts -- the Reds signed a bad player and will give him enough playing time to remind us all why he was dropped unceremoniously from Colorado and why the market for him (outside of Cincinnati) was lukewarm at best.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I fully believe that if he performed exactly as he did in his stint in Houston...he'll be considerably more productive in OUR lineup due to the players surrounding him.

IIRC Colorado went to the World Series while Willy T was on the team. So was he surrounded by stiffs there too?

Yes, runs are dependent on your teammates, but you have to get on-base in order to score those runs. Additionally, once you are on-base you have to avoid running yourself into an out. With the exception of one year Willy T has never been an exceptional base-runner. So he doesn't get on-much and his much vaunted speed doesn't do much to enhance his value.

Ultimately he could be surrounded by the Big Red Machine. Doesn't change the fact that he individually is a bad player.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Ryan Freel: +91 Adjusted OPS+
Willy Taveras: +72 Adjusted OPS+
Juan Castro: +56 Adjusted OPS+

When you're closer to Juan Castro than you are Ryan Freel, you're not good.

As bad as Castro was, he never came close to getting 650 PA's at one time for the Reds. Most he ever stunk up the place was for 350 PA's.

Willy T might get 700.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Krusty

Amen brother. I couldn't have said it or posted any better.

It was a career best year followed by a return to career norms.


That's the problem.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Raisor

If the Reds can somehow equal their Runs Scored from last year (and I don't think that's close to a given, but let's just hope) they would have to give up 200 less runs then last year to make the playoffs.
Be somewhere in the 590-600 RA area.

Yeah, I don't see that happening either.

Okay, and neither do I. I don't see us making the playoffs this year. But I also don't see any CF signing that WOULD put us there, do YOU? I can see us surpassing our Runs Scored from last year...yes, even without Dunn. And with an improved defense and a more experienced staff I can see us improving substantially upon our runs allowed. I'm not forcasting a full-scale turnaround....just improvement.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Low OBPs that lead their teams to titles, not saying Taveras will do that, can he help lead the Reds to .500 because thats about where the Reds are headed if you wanna be realistic, why not?

2008 Willy Taveras .308

1990 Billy Hatcher .327
1995 Marquis Grissom .317
2001 Tony Womack .307
2002 Darin Erstad .313

Being on a team that wins and leading that team to victory are two very different things. Being a poor player on a great team doesn't make you any better a player.

Taveras might be a positive contributor for the next two years; it's a distinct possibility. But he may also produce negative value; also a distinct possibility. There's just no reason to acquire players who have low upsides and very low downsides.

Sure, I'm glad it didn't cost us a prospect. But the bigger issue is that in the event Taveras goes Patterson on us and fails to deliver his upside, we don't have a manager likely to utilize him accordingly. He'll suck up a ton of PA while doing worse than a cheap replacement.

I hope he starts bunting up a storm and putting up his infield single driven .360 OBP again. Because that's the only way he produces positive value. And if he doesn't do it while continuing to sit at the top of the lineup, scoring enough runs to be competitive is going to be virtually impossible.