Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Jpup

What does that supposed to mean?

I'll ask again. Is it possible that you are wrong?

Is it possible you are wrong? It isnt got nothing to do with who's right or who's wrong... guys who crunch the numbers always think theyre right and guys who like to give the team fair shake think theyre right as well. We will find out together then at the end of the year we're still looking at a team thats around .500. Give me a break.

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Is it possible you are wrong? It isnt got nothing to do with who's right or who's wrong... guys who crunch the numbers always think theyre right and guys who like to give the team fair shake think theyre right as well. We will find out together then at the end of the year we're still looking at a team thats around .500. Give me a break.

Sure, it's possible, but there is a mountain of evidence to suggest otherwise. You never did answer the question, so I'll take that to mean that you could not possibly be wrong.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

1. Defense up the middle is important, especially in centerfield, so how does Taveras' defense rate: Excellent, above average, slightly above average, or overrated because of his speed and lack of offense?

Generally regarded as an average defender. Middle of the road.

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

2. Taveras' speed is highly touted, but there's this old school idea that "you can't steal first." Does Taveras get on base often enough for his speed to make a difference?

His SB% has hovered near 75% for three out of 4 years. 75% is generally regarded as the minimum acceptable rate. His EqA, a measure of his production including base running, has once only reached above .260. 260 EqA is considered average.

No. His speed does not offset his low OBP. In fact, it only make him less valuable because the few times he does get on base he runs himself into more outs.

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

4. If Taveras is closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron, will there be enough offense on the corners to make up for the light-hitting supposedly decent defense up the middle?

Misses the point.

The Reds need additional offense. They can't afford to be carrying a player right now (especially since SS is likely to be another black-hole on the team).

[guttle11]

Originally Posted by Raisor

A) Can you point me to anything that says that Willy T will be a platoon player?

b) he doesn't have any kind of platoon split, he's equally horrible against both RHP and LHP.

Dickerson against RH pitching last year: .309/.411/.654

I'm not praising the deal, I'm just trying to get the metaphorical guns out of everyone's hand. It's really not a big deal. People just love to overreact.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by guttle11

And that keeps them from acquiring those good players how exactly?

The answer is that it doesn't. There are still options in LF, and options for the SS positions. They still have pieces to work a trade if they so choose. That will determine the Reds offseason, not signing a guy for a likely platoon in CF.

The Reds could have made the decision to bring in a RF w/ pop and a LF w/ pop to play on either side of Jay Bruce in CF (while he's still young enough to man the position, defensively).

Instead, they brought in a judy-hitting CF w/o plus-defense skills (again, unlike the defense Patterson played last year), which now necessitates Bruce going to RF. Their options for bringing run producers to the ballclub now will either have to come in LF or SS. Last I looked, there weren't any run producing SS available via Free Agency -- and it'll cost more than the Reds have on the farm (likely) to bring one in via trade. So really, that means the only option left is to bring in a big LF bat....

...Which will put the Reds right back where they started last season before they traded Adam Dunn. And, that's assuming they get a LF bat that is as productive as Dunn was.

So, please, explain to me how this doesn't redefine "spinning one's wheels?"

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Sure, it's possible, but there is a mountain of evidence to suggest otherwise. You never did answer the question, so I'll take that to mean that you could not possibly be wrong.

You dont know me. I'll admit when Im wrong. All I said is there's nothing to be wrong about at this point. I said Dunn will get signed for less than 10 million a year and if Im wrong I'll eat BBQed crow if thats what you want... you dont know me guy. I cant believe this place, guys here hated Patterson now they want him instead of Taveras. Give the dude a chance at least before you hate a person.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by guttle11

Dickerson against RH pitching last year: .309/.411/.654

and .286/.423/.429 vs LHP

Willy T isn't the answer to any question involving platooning/splits.

I'm not praising the deal, I'm just trying to get the metaphorical guns out of everyone's hand. It's really not a big deal. People just love to overreact.

When you're going to give 650-700 PA's (x2 years) to a stiff like Willy T, yeah, it's a big deal.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Patterson has a better career OPS+ than Taveras and its not all that close.

As for Taveras coming off his career worst with his career best before comment.... the problem is his career best still didn't make him an average major league center fielder. We just gave a 2 year deal to a guy whose career best year made him slightly below average at the second weakest hitting position on the field.

I don't argue that. There are lots of players who have an OPS better than Taveras. There are also lots of players who play better defense than he does. And a VAST majority of those players are already inked with clubs or are overpriced or aren't interested in short term deals. OPS is a stat that directly points to the two biggest weaknesses of Taveras' game. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. Two flaws. Hmmm...I seem to recall a player who's looked upon as a near god on this site who had a few flaws too. Tons of K's, porous defense, can't hit for average...hmmm, who could THAT have been? Nobody's saying that this signing is going to change the future of the club. It's a short term FA signing. It gives us depth at a position we're desperately short at right now. And it's also a position that is very weak in the market right now.

Willie Bloomquist
Jim Edmonds
Gabe Kapler
Mark Kotsay
Scott Posednik

Not alot to choose from there. I'd rather take the shot on the 26 year old kid with lightning bolts for legs.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Raisor

As bad as Castro was, he never came close to getting 650 PA's at one time for the Reds. Most he ever stunk up the place was for 350 PA's.

Willy T might get 700.

If that happens, I'd expect a negative RAP near or slightly worse than -20. There's virtually no chance that Taveras will be able to repeat his 2007 BABIP (.371). Without that, 700 PA projects to -18.81 over his career and should he repeat 2008 it's -24.98. Basically, if he plays that much he'll do just about as much damage as Corey Patterson did in limited PT. When factoring in defense, it's probably a little worse.

I don't really think folks understand how bad this could get.

[Spring~Fields]

I see the old boys budget network has struck again, all hale the budget. :notworthy

We use to have two baseball stars and no supporting cast, now we have what might someday be two baseball stars, and no supporting cast.


Willy Taveras .251 .308 .296 .604

vs. Left .266 .321 .313 .634
vs. Right .245 .303 .291 .594

3 Year Splits
vs. Left .290 .345 .352 .697
vs. Right .277 .330 .330 .660

Can this guy hit either handed pitching, I don't see it.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by icehole3

. I cant believe this place, guys here hated Patterson now they want him instead of Taveras. Give the dude a chance at least before you hate a person.

That's because, as bad as CP has been, Willy T has actually been WORSE.

That's right, the Reds found one of the only guys playing professional ball worse then CP. And they gave him a two year deal.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

OPS is a stat that directly points to the two biggest weaknesses of Taveras' game. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. Two flaws.

Dude, those two flaws? A players two primary offensive functions are to avoid outs (OBP) and acquire as many bases as possible while avoiding outs (SLG).

When your "two flaws" are that you stink at doing both of your main jobs? Well, running fast isn't going to make you an acceptable baseball player.

[icehole3]

I just read the Reds press release and no where does it say he's going to get all the at bats in CF, he's just added to the mix, if he gets 700 at bats Im right there with you stat guys.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by icehole3

You dont know me. I'll admit when Im wrong. All I said is there's nothing to be wrong about at this point. I said Dunn will get signed for less than 10 million a year and if Im wrong I'll eat BBQed crow if thats what you want... you dont know me guy. I cant believe this place, guys here hated Patterson now they want him instead of Taveras. Give the dude a chance at least before you hate a person.

We don't hate the player, just his game.

Patterson had power potential and plus defense.

Taveras has... speed.

While we are all blowing up over this, lets examine Taveras carefully.

1. He's a below average defender based on most modern defensive metrics.
2. He's a below average hitter in the power department.
3. He's below average at getting on base.
4. Except for his career year, he's about a .270 hitter that makes an out 70% of the time.
5. he's got a what, 75% career SB%? meh. His SB% did spike upward last year, making it an abnormality.

oh yeah... this is a great signing. I'm just glad there isn't a player option for a third year.

[ochre]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Don Quixote had an easier job than the one Krusty is undertaking, equally fruitless, but easier.

I don't know. Windmills = alternative energy. Two year contracts to marginal/bad players = alternative GMing. Don Krusty may just be centuries ahead of us all...

Maybe Walt's found the market imbalance (bad players are undervalued) before BillyB this time!