Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[wheels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, its 5am and I still don't feel any better about this. Still want to vomit. The Reds are pushing me closer and closer to taking up alcohol, and lots of it.

Russel's Reserve Rye Whisky on the rocks did the trick for me last night.

It was almost like it never happened.

And then I woke up this morning.

It's a horrible time to be a Reds fan.

[lollipopcurve]

We're counting on a lot of hope and finger crossing going into this new season.

That's baseball.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

Not the best signing but it is better than Hopper as your everyday CF. Not by much, but better. Somewhat...

Norris Hopper has been WAY better on offense then Willy T in their careers.

OBP-367
SLG-.371
OPS-738
OPS+ 89

In fact, Hopper's career numbers look alot like Willy T's career YEAR.

Willy T 2007
OBP-.367
SLG-382
OPS-749
OPS+ 89

With more PA's Hopper would crash and burn, just like Willy T has. I'm just saying that the Reds already have a Taveras on the team.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

The way I look at it, his lack of power is compensated somewhat by his basestealing skills. Those singles are turned into doubles and triples after the SB's essentially. .

Except that his EqA, which measures production including base running has only once exceeded .260. .260 is considered average. Most of the time (75% of his playing time) he's been far below average.

So there's absolutely no evidence that his speed offsets his inability to find first base or lack of power.

[Ltlabner]

Here's what it boils down to.

Those who don't like the move (myself included) have thrown up post after post of actual, real, historical data of what Tavaras actually did (or more accurately, didn't do).

Those who like the deal have made the case his speed "somehow" offsets his lack of finding first base. Toss in some "walks are icky" and misunderstanding of how runs are actually created for good measure.

I know which case I find more compelling.

[kpresidente]

Originally Posted by Raisor

With more PA's Hopper would crash and burn, just like Willy T has. I'm just saying that the Reds already have a Taveras on the team.

Hopper's actually better, because his wide splits (200 points of OPS) means he might be competent in a platoon or as a situational pinch-hitter. Tavares has virtually no split (8 points), so there's no situation where he can benefit the team.

[membengal]

This almost feels like I should start another thread with it, but since we already have too many Taveras threads, I will put it here and hope it doesn't get lost.

The difference between the vast majority of us of who are annoyed/frustrated/upset etc. with this move and the few who seem okay with it is one of expectations and a divide over what speed can do to mask other offensive flaws.

Basically, what would Taveras have to do in order to make his woeful inability to hit a ball with any authority, ever, not a millstone around this team's neck?

I see a few extremely unlikely possibities, but possibilities nonetheless:

1. Channel Vince Coleman's 1987 season. Coleman, in 1987, hit .289/.363/.358 for a .721 OPS. Yes, he had a worse slugging percentage than his on-base. Hard to do, but Coleman also swung a noodle at the plate. He also stole 109 bases and was caught only 22 times, getting on base enough to score 121 runs in 623 at-bats. Ominously for those us now forced into rooting for Taveras, Coleman drew a career-high 70 walks that year, but, that provides a template for what Taveras will need to do. If he can put together that kind of line, he will not affirmitively hurt the Reds.

By the way, check out Coleman's 1986 season, just for fun. If you want to know the line at which speed does not help, that's it. Coleman stole 107 bases and was caught only 14 times. Course, he OPS'd .581 (.301 OBP w/ a .280 SLG). Yuck. And don't think for a second that such an armageddon line is out of Taveras' reach. It is as possible as a .720 OPS...)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/colemvi01.shtml

2. Historical Reds precedent for what would acceptable? Dave Collins' 1980 season. .303/.366/.370 for a .736 OPS. 79 steals and caught 21 times. 94 runs scored. Easily his career year, by far, it occurred at age 27. He never approached that kind of effectiveness again.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/collida02.shtml

3. M a y b e I could live with Brett Butler's 1989 season where he went .283/.349/.354 for a .703 OPS. 100 runs scored, but only 31 stolen bases. His steals were off a bit that year, relative to the years he had been having, largely because his .349 was so LOW compared to what he usually put up. In fact, the marvel of Butler, who also swung a noodle, was that he found a way to get on base at rates that made him crazy valuable to teams, even with his low SLG, even as he got older. A remarkable player, and if he had not tortured the Reds so much over his career, one I would have appreciated more at the time.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/butlebr01.shtml

Of those three players, only Butler had a career where he was a valuable starter while swinging a noodle at the plate. To say that I don't expect Tavares to all of a sudden learn the ways of the Butler is an under-statement...

So, there. In fairness, from my head, are three comps of seasons that Taveras could put up that are technically in his reach, as they are seasons that don't require him to all of a sudden have found power. Which ain't happening.

So what am I left with, as a fan? I will root for a miracle. I will root that he puts up a career season this year and close to one next. I will root that if he defies expectations based on his history and puts up two years with .720+ OPS' (again, I laugh at just how awful he is that reaching for below league average represents his high point), that the Reds don't turn around and then give him a long-term contract. I will root that he by himself resurrects the go-go 80s, and gives the Reds a jolt of speed that impacts the games he gets on base like Coleman did.

Course, in rooting and hoping for all that, I completely understand just how crazy unlikely that is. Do those of you who support the move similarly understand just how crazy unlikely it is? But I will root and hope for it all the same, because I am a fan, and that's the nature of fandom, in the end. Hoping that the guys wearing your favorite team's laundry do wonderful things.

But I most certainly do wish they had chosen other options that didn't involve a player needing a career season/miracle just to be slightly below league average. That would have been swell. Ah welll, the road less traveled, as always, for the Reds...

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Great post, membengal!

I posed this question before and never got an answer, but does anyone know if the grass (or height of it) at GABP still plays a role in neutralizing the "hitter's park" label that the park has been given?

We know balls fly out at a higher rate than most parks, but I thought that ground balls were lost in the thick furry stuff.

If the grass still plays a role in weakening grounders, I would think that Willy could benefit from playing 81 games at GABP.

I'm searching for anything positive here.

[Redhook]

Great post Membengal!

I could find some positives too if they had a good cleanup hitter playing LF. In fact, if they did have one I wouldn't be disappointed with this move (I know I'd be in the minority). What I have a problem with, and others have stated this, is this most likely is the Reds BIG move. That, to me, is what's so depressing.

[mth123]

One thing to think about here is that the need for an upgrade at SS is even more vital now than ever. If the plan is really small ball, then I have to wonder if the Reds won't be changing the field conditions. Small ball's hey day was when team's played on artificial turf with concrete underneath. They had fast guys who beat the ball on the ground looking for a fast track to get the ball to the OF or a high bounce that enabled them to beat the throw. That era is over. If the team wants to play that way, I foresee a rock hard IF at GABP with some real short grass. I know that there is the possibility of bunts and high grass that slow the roll for beating the throw, but that is not how small ball was successful in its era. The rock hard IF with a lot of grounders to the OF is the way to sustain that if its even possible anymore.

If they do that, a top SS who can cover a lot of ground with a strong arm is more necessary than ever. Without it, teams will beat the reds at their own game.

[lollipopcurve]

Do those of you who support the move similarly understand just how crazy unlikely it is?

I'm sure it varies from person to person. But really, who cares?

[membengal]

In the context of these threads, it matters a bit. It might stop the "talking past each other" aspect to things, that always marked the, say, Dunn threads.

[lollipopcurve]

In the context of these threads, it matters a bit. It might stop the "talking past each other" aspect to things, that always marked the, say, Dunn threads.

That would require both sides understanding the other's point of view.

[Mario-Rijo]

If you are pro Taveras you probably feel he can hit well enough to not be of negative overall value to the team (along with his speed & defense). He has no pop (and by that I mean he even struggles hitting the ball out of the IF) and he doesn't BB much. So his entire offensive value has to come from him hitting for a high average, which he's never consistently done. He's a career .283 hitter people which isn't good at all if you don't walk and hit leadoff. And he's moving to a park that supresses BA in favor of slugging. So if you are pro Taveras tell me how this doesn't make sense to you?

If you are anti Taveras you already know this.

[Matt700wlw]

His speed on the basepaths can be very beneficial...

...however, his strength isn't getting on base.



That could be an issue.



They still need a bopper in the lineup.