Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Those quotes by Jocketty are disgusting

To you & I, maybe -- but this move is surprisingly playing well with the average Reds fan.

I spent 15 minutes last night talking with someone who was "excited" that the team wouldn't be "all strikeouts and home runs," as he put it.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

To you & I, maybe -- but this move is surprisingly playing well with the average Reds fan.

I spent 15 minutes last night talking with someone who was "excited" that the team wouldn't be "all strikeouts and home runs," as he put it.

Ground outs and no runs instead.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

His defense is mediocre, his speed has no positive effect on his value and his hitting is abysmal.

Why on earth do you have no problem with that?

Because I'm not of the same opinion as you in those areas. I've seen him play defense dozens of times with my own eyes. He's MUCH better than mediocre. I don't give a crap what some defensive metric says...they're all crap anyway. I've yet to see a TRULY effective defensive stat, so I'll stick with my own two eyes (actually four) on that one. His speed DOES have positive effect if you would actually look at it without the pessimism. He gets hits at a .280 clip, not great but around average. His OBP stinks overall, but when he IS on base he reaks havoc on the opposing pitchers and defense. If Baker goes back to managing aggressively on the basepaths with hit & runs and such then his speed will only help his fellow teammates with bigger IF holes. As for his hitting...ignore the walks and the obp for a second. What do you consider to be an average major league batting average to be? I look for .270 or higher. He's getting hits at the same pace as your average player. Is it good? Hell no. I don't really like him as a player overall, but I don't see him as a hinderance. He just needs to be used correctly. Whether Dusty will do that or not remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen if he'll be the starter or not. Walt's not done and neither are the minor-leaguers.

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

You are kidding yourself if you think there will be any real "competition" for the starting CF spot. Willy's been pimped as the leadoff CF bat. Walt himself has said so. Dusty has a track record of batting the CF leadoff. And Dusty has a track record of going with vet goodness.

Sorry SC, baring injury or divine intervention Willy T will be in CF come opening day.

Stubbs, Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson...depending upon ST, any one of those guys could land roster spots (I'd say it's almost a certainty that Dickerson will at least). If Walt adds some more players (not a stretch by any means) it could mean another OF'er which pushes Dickerson into the CF mix, or it could mean a 3b-man which pushes Edwin into the OF mix and Dickerson back into the CF mix as well. If that new OF'er or 3b-man is quick with good OB skills...why couldn't they end up being the leadoff man? Or Dickerson for that matter? All I've been saying is that I like the acquisition because it gives us depth at a position we're sorely lacking at right now. If we don't add more, then he'll get a good bulk of the time there. Fine, it allows us to not push the minor leaguers. If they prove that they're ready NOW...fine, he provides another set of legs to let the rook work himself into the bigs. Either way, we're not going to be winning THIS season. If by next season we're seriously contenders (which I think we'll be) then Taveras is still there as another OF'er for depth.

But either way, I do think they'll be competition for the slot during spring training.

[westofyou]

Wily Taveras... Alex Cole without the glasses.

[dougdirt]

Sir Charles, the problem with adding Taveras for depth is that he isn't being added as depth. He is being added as a starter. If he were a backup, no one would be all too upset because giving him 100 PA isn't going to beat this team into submission. When you give him 600, its an entirely different story. If you think he isn't written in at #1 CF already on the lineup card, you are absolutely kidding yourself.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Wily Taveras... Alex Cole without the glasses.

No Alex Cole could take a walk and got on base at a pretty decent rate most of his limited career. Defense was his biggest flaw.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sir Charles, the problem with adding Taveras for depth is that he isn't being added as depth. He is being added as a starter. If he were a backup, no one would be all too upset because giving him 100 PA isn't going to beat this team into submission. When you give him 600, its an entirely different story. If you think he isn't written in at #1 CF already on the lineup card, you are absolutely kidding yourself.

As things stand RIGHT NOW...yeah, he's the CF'er and leadoff hitter. I'm not arguing that. But do you SERIOUSLY think Walt's DONE? Do you seriously think none of those minor leaguers I mentioned won't get ST invites? So as I said, if the kids aren't ready...fine, Taveras gets the bulk. Who the hell cares, we're NOT going to the playoffs this season. It's NOT going to happen.

As for the "being added for depth" argument....like I said, as of right now, no he's not being added for depth. But that's because we only had 2 freaking outfielders! Adding more will push him further down on the need list. Either from the outside or from the minors. But Walt can't see into the future. He's looking at things as they stand right now. He's also seeing that it's possible he won't be able to add that next outfielder. So why would he say that Taveras is being added for depth until he knows that he's got another guy coming in for certain? So either way, starter or backup...I'm fine with it because we desperately need OF'ers. For either stopgaps, backups, depth or starters. Does anybody here seriously want to head out there with Dickerson/Hopper/Bruce and no backups? Not me.

[dougdirt]

I don't think the Reds have absolutely any plans of bringing in anyone else to compete for the CF job. Its not in their plans.

No one wants to head out there with Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. But that is absolutely no different than going out there with Taveras/Dickerson/Bruce. Yeah, we have one more player, but its not any different. The Reds need to bring in good players, not players who suck. Adding suck doesn't address any problem at all.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

His speed DOES have positive effect if you would actually look at it without the pessimism. He gets hits at a .280 clip, not great but around average. His OBP stinks overall, but when he IS on base he reaks havoc on the opposing pitchers and defense. If Baker goes back to managing aggressively on the basepaths with hit & runs and such then his speed will only help his fellow teammates with bigger IF holes. As for his hitting...ignore the walks and the obp for a second. What do you consider to be an average major league batting average to be? I look for .270 or higher.

Maybe, just maybe, some year these numbers will sink in.

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2
Willy Taveras	2007  408  .367	.382 .62745  78.6%  16.4  .261	12.5	-1.8
Willy Taveras	2006  587  .333	.338 .66099  78.6%   5.1  .242   6.9   -12.4
Willy Taveras	2005  635  .325	.341 .65984  75.6%   4.9  .242   7.3   -15.7

There is no evidence whatsoever that his speed is worth a damn. His SB% has hovered at noneffective 3 out of 4 years. His EqA, which incorporates base-running, has been below average (.260 EqA is considered average) 3 out of 4 years. His out rate has been 65% or higher 3 out of four years.

The one year his EqA was above average (by a whopping .001) it was driven by a.....you guessed it.....367 OBP. That year he went on to have a SB% just barely over acceptable. So it wasn't speed/base-running driven. It was OBP driven.

He's got a below average OBP (even then it's propped up by one good year). Below average EqA, ineffective stolen base percentages and high out rate. He's not reeking havoc on anything other than the backside of his uni.

As far as batting average. I don't really care. There's a host of far more effective metrics and all of them say he stinks.

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

But either way, I do think they'll be competition for the slot during spring training.

Sorry bud. The only competition will be for Dusty to see how quick he can manufacture reasons to sit the other guys in favor of Willy.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think the Reds have absolutely any plans of bringing in anyone else to compete for the CF job. Its not in their plans.

No one wants to head out there with Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. But that is absolutely no different than going out there with Taveras/Dickerson/Bruce. Yeah, we have one more player, but its not any different. The Reds need to bring in good players, not players who suck. Adding suck doesn't address any problem at all.

Again, I agree. I think they want to bring in someone for the LF vacancy. They've already got people to compete for the CF slot, but the competition won't take place unless they get someone to fill the LF slot.

I've said this numerous times and have yet to get an answer. Who, other than Taveras, could we have gotten to fill the CF void from the FA market? Who would've accepted a 2 year deal? I didn't see anybody I'd want from the CF candidates.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

His speed DOES have positive effect if you would actually look at it without the pessimism. .

Something else of interest for all the fans of the "speed offsets low OBP" argument.

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2

The one year Willy T stole bases at an effective rate (2008) his value over a replacement level player was non-existent. His production, including base running, was significantly below average and he scored nearly 20 less runs than the average center-fielder.

So if speed truly offset the inability to find first base, why did Willy T have no actual production to show for it?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Again, I agree. I think they want to bring in someone for the LF vacancy. They've already got people to compete for the CF slot, but the competition won't take place unless they get someone to fill the LF slot.

I've said this numerous times and have yet to get an answer. Who, other than Taveras, could we have gotten to fill the CF void from the FA market? Who would've accepted a 2 year deal? I didn't see anybody I'd want from the CF candidates.

The answer is nobody. The real question is why Taveras over Dickerson/Hopper? Taveras adds nothing. If Dickerson and/or Hopper suck, the team moves on to Stubbs, Heisey, Henry and any number of Dewayne Wise types that are always out there (Jerry Hairston Jr is exhibit A of how acquiring guys on minor league deals can fill a role with some level of ability). Instead we're locked in for two years to somebody we know will suck. The question is not who would I prefer over Taveras. The real question is whether or not bringing in Taveras is worse than doing nothing. I'd prefer they did nothing.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Again, I agree. I think they want to bring in someone for the LF vacancy. They've already got people to compete for the CF slot, but the competition won't take place unless they get someone to fill the LF slot.

I've said this numerous times and have yet to get an answer. Who, other than Taveras, could we have gotten to fill the CF void from the FA market? Who would've accepted a 2 year deal? I didn't see anybody I'd want from the CF candidates.

You are absolutely kidding yourself if you think any move is going to be made that leads to any competition for the CF spot in Cincinnati short of an injury to WT.

[Will M]

Baldelli still has serious questions about his health.
Hairston isn't really a centerfielder.
if walt was looking for a guy who can actually play CF defensively to bring in either as competition for Dickerson or to partner/platoon with Dickerson who else was actually available?

Dickerson/Taveras is actually better than Dickerson/Freel and trading Freel upgraded the catcher spot

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Maybe, just maybe, some year these numbers will sink in.

As far as batting average. I don't really care. There's a host of far more effective metrics and all of them say he stinks.

Sorry bud. The only competition will be for Dusty to see how quick he can manufacture reasons to sit the other guys in favor of Willy.

He stinks. I know that. I've always known that. I haven't argued that. But you're still failing to answer my questions.

If he's on base....will his speed be an asset? Will that speed have an effect on the opposing team? To say no is to be oblivious to the game of baseball. Yes, yes...I know. He doesn't get on base. Nope, never. He'll never get on base at all. Not once.

Yes, I know you (and nearly every person on this board apparently) hate the batting average stat. But, just for arguments sake, lets take your hatred of that stat out of the equation. Go back to when you were a kid and hadn't heard of Bill James before. What did you consider to be a good batting average for an average ML player? What was "acceptable" as a BA?

And lastly, yes, I know you (and nearly every person on this board apparently) hate Dusty Baker. But again, just for arguments sake, let's assume that he's not a narrow minded moron and he's not going to pencil in the CF for leading off and the SS for batting second. Let's say he's not going to hand the CF starting job over to Taveras on a silver platter. Does anybody here seriously think that if Stubbs for example hits .750 with 10 hr's in ST he won't push Taveras for the CF job? Does anybody here seriously think that if we bring in a power hitting LF'er that Dickerson doesn't get serious consideration for the CF job if he hits .320 and hits 5 dingers in ST? I'm not ready to pencil in ANYBODY until after ST. And I'm pretty sure that neither is Baker.