Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Danny Serafini

David Weathers may be the most underappreciated Red of this decade. All he's done since he came to Cincinnati is allow runs at a rate significantly lower than the league average, yet some people treat him as if he's carrying the bubonic plague. He may walk a tightrope at times, but he still gets to the other side.

I do agree and he seems to really help those around him, the Burtons, Brays etc.

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by Danny Serafini

David Weathers may be the most underappreciated Red of this decade. All he's done since he came to Cincinnati is allow runs at a rate significantly lower than the league average, yet some people treat him as if he's carrying the bubonic plague. He may walk a tightrope at times, but he still gets to the other side.

David Weathers has given the Reds great results for the past three seasons. No doubt about it. If I met the man, I'd shake his hand and thank him for a job well done.

However, as reasoned out many times by many people on this board, he's not a good bet to produce those good results in the future. So I don't want him on the 2009 team. I think it's a pretty reasonable stance to take.

[RedsManRick]

Yep. You pay a guy for the results he's going to give you. He's already been compensated for the work he's given us so far.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by SMcGavin

David Weathers has given the Reds great results for the past three seasons. No doubt about it. If I met the man, I'd shake his hand and thank him for a job well done.

However, as reasoned out many times by many people on this board, he's not a good bet to produce those good results in the future. So I don't want him on the 2009 team. I think it's a pretty reasonable stance to take.

I think you miss the point entirely. This sentiment has been echoed on RZ for nearly the whole time Weathers has been back and he's done the job. Yes, ultimately time will catch up to him. But hear Redszone say it, he's been expected to fail for the past several years.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I think you miss the point entirely. This sentiment has been echoed on RZ for nearly the whole time Weathers has been back and he's done the job. Yes, ultimately time will catch up to him. But hear Redszone say it, he's been expected to fail for the past several years.

Ok, so through 2008, we've all been wrong about David Weathers...

This is 2009, and I have no doubt that we'll all be right about David Weathers.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Ok, so through 2008, we've all been wrong about David Weathers...

This is 2009, and I have no doubt that we'll all be right about David Weathers.

Since every ballplayer ages and ultimately their skills diminish, you're bound to be right about this at some point. And you might even be right this year, but it doesn't hurt to acknowledge that just saying it, doesn't make it so. I'm inclined to stay in the camp that Weathers new contract is not a bad one and isn't necessarily in and of itself a detriment to the club's season.

But I do acknowledge that you'll ultimately be right some day.

[Boss-Hog]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Since every ballplayer ages and ultimately their skills diminish, you're bound to be right about this at some point. And you might even be right this year, but it doesn't hurt to acknowledge that just saying it, doesn't make it so. I'm inclined to stay in the camp that Weathers new contract is not a bad one and isn't necessarily in and of itself a detriment to the club's season.

But I do acknowledge that you'll ultimately be right some day.

Well said.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Since every ballplayer ages and ultimately their skills diminish, you're bound to be right about this at some point. And you might even be right this year, but it doesn't hurt to acknowledge that just saying it, doesn't make it so. I'm inclined to stay in the camp that Weathers new contract is not a bad one and isn't necessarily in and of itself a detriment to the club's season.

But I do acknowledge that you'll ultimately be right some day.

And this is a great point. Alone, the $ burned on Weathers doesn't hurt the Reds. But, combined with the money wasted on Hairston and Taveras, the $ burned on the three of them combined is significant.

I hope Weathers proves me wrong, he's certainly done so his entire time in Cincinnati. I just fear that the closer he is to 40, he'll stop proving me wrong.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Well if EE doesn't shore up his defense this year Frazier will be knocking on the door with EE's FA closing in. I'd say that means EE could be on his way out the door, heck he might be on his way out regardless. If he straightens out his defense enough to be considered respectable and has a big year with the bat maybe they trade he or Frazier in the offseason for a SS, who knows. I'm guessing though that the odds Frazier is dealt is a lot less likely given he helps allow the future re-signing of our core. EE and BP are almost destined to be dealt eventually IMO. Unless the dollars start rolling in somehow.

If Dusty makes it through 2009, there's no way in hell he's going with Todd Frazier over EE at 3rd, I don't care how many errors EE makes. Unless EE gets hurt for a significant portion of the season and Frazier comes in and fills in for him, he's not going to be starting at 3rd come 2010. Even if EE gets hurt, all they will do is slide Keppinger in there. Another thing is that the Reds have to find a position for Frazier. Last year he played 3 or 4 different positions. MLB is not the place for on the job training. Usually, if a guy hasn't found a steady position it means he's probably not that good defensively. Frazier may come up and make us long for the glory days when EE was there. Gonzo will more than likely be gone after 2009 so that means that the Reds will have to get a veteran via trade or free agency or they are going to have to go with someone like Janish or Valaika. How many people think Dusty's going to go with an all rookie left side of the infield?

[jojo]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Since every ballplayer ages and ultimately their skills diminish, you're bound to be right about this at some point. And you might even be right this year, but it doesn't hurt to acknowledge that just saying it, doesn't make it so. I'm inclined to stay in the camp that Weathers new contract is not a bad one and isn't necessarily in and of itself a detriment to the club's season.

But I do acknowledge that you'll ultimately be right some day.

Lets look at it from a different standpoint-completely ignoring age. Weathers now has a below average K rate (about 1.5 ks/9 lower!) and walk rate for a reliever. He's still got ground ball tendencies but they aren't nearly as pronounced as they once were. Just assuming Weathers puts up identical peripherals in '09, the Reds just shelled out $4M to a below-average reliever. That's not a positive.

Now look at his '08 LOB% and we see that he stranded an unsustainably high number of runners (81.5%). If that swings back to normal, he's in for some brutal innings.

It's pretty tough to be optimistic about Weather's in '09.

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by jojo

Lets look at it from a different standpoint-completely ignoring age. Weathers now has a below average K rate (about 1.5 ks/9 lower!) and walk rate for a reliever. He's still got ground ball tendencies but they aren't nearly as pronounced as they once were. Just assuming Weathers puts up identical peripherals in '09, the Reds just shelled out $4M to a below-average reliever. That's not a positive.

Now look at his '08 LOB% and we see that he stranded an unsustainably high number of runners (81.5%). If that swings back to normal, he's in for some brutal innings.

It's pretty tough to be optimistic about Weather's in '09.

and '08, and '07, and '06. If there is one guy on the team that I'm not worried about, it's David Weathers. He finds a way to be pretty good every year.

[jojo]

He's kind of running out of ways.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Jpup

and '08, and '07, and '06. If there is one guy on the team that I'm not worried about, it's David Weathers. He finds a way to be pretty good every year.

Just for reference, from fangraphs.

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2005	3.94	7.07	3.36	2.10	0.81	.288	71.6	3.82
2006	3.54	6.11	4.15	1.47	1.47	.237	82.3	5.37
2007	3.59	5.56	3.13	1.78	0.46	.269	70.7	3.91
2008	3.25	5.97	3.89	1.53	0.78	.319	81.5	4.26

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I also have felt this way. If Votto has another season as good or better than the last I am not so sure that Alonso will ever wear cincy red.

I agree....and I also have no problem with that what so ever. Let Yonder develop a bit, give Joey time to settle in, then deal Yonder to fill a weakness...or two.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree....and I also have no problem with that what so ever. Let Yonder develop a bit, give Joey time to settle in, then deal Yonder to fill a weakness...or two.

Is it correct to assume that this season, both at the ML club and in the minors, that we're going to start seeing what we have to trade? If Frazier and Valaika do well; if Alonso progresses and Votto and Bruce continue to grow (or maintain what they did), if EE and Phillips continue, then we ultimately have significant surplus to start moving some chips. Now I know that's alot of "ifs", but best case scenario says we'll have to start making some decisions. And not all of these guys will necessarily continue to be Reds. It's a good problem to have, if everything falls right. And that's without even mentioning the staff. This season might be nothing to write home about for the big club, but I'm liking the future's potential.