BA's Top 100 Prospects

[edabbs44]

Alonso - 35
Frazier - 60

That is all for Cincy.

[OnBaseMachine]

Not a great list if you ask me.

Colby Rasmus played half a season and posted a .742 OPS in a hitters league ... and he moved up to #3.

Drew Stubbs fell from the top 100 despite OPSing over .800 in Double-A and Triple-A (albeit small sample size).

Once again, Josh Vitters cracked the top 100 while Neftali Soto is nowhere to be found despite Soto having much better numbers.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Not a great list if you ask me.

Colby Rasmus played half a season and posted a .742 OPS in a hitters league ... and he moved up to #3.

Drew Stubbs fell from the top 100 despite OPSing over .800 in Double-A and Triple-A (albeit small sample size).

Once again, Josh Vitters cracked the top 100 while Neftali Soto is nowhere to be found despite Soto having much better numbers.

Why do you keep saying that Soto has much better numbers than Vitters? I don't get it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Why do you keep saying that Soto has much better numbers than Vitters? I don't get it.

Why do I keep saying that? Because it's true.

They have similar skills sets and Soto's numbers are much better.

Neftali Soto:

.327/.360/.522 - .882 OPS in 437 minor league atbats.

Josh Vitters:

.290/.327/.435 - .762 OPS in 324 minor league atbats.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Why do I keep saying that? Because it's true.

They have similar skills sets and Soto's numbers are much better.

Neftali Soto:

.327/.360/.522 - .882 OPS in 437 minor league atbats.

Josh Vitters:

.290/.327/.435 - .762 OPS in 324 minor league atbats.

Look closer. In his only decent sample size, Vitters hit .328/.365/.498 in Low A as an 18 year old.

Soto, in a comparable sample size, hit .326/.343/.500 at Dayton as a 19 year old.

Soto has 107 games total and his numbers are very skewed by his 15 game tirade at Billings last year.

Their performances are extremely comparable.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Look closer. In his only decent sample size, Vitters hit .328/.365/.498 in Low A as an 18 year old.

Soto, in a comparable sample size, hit .326/.343/.500 at Dayton as a 19 year old.

Soto has 107 games total and his numbers are very skewed by his 15 game tirade at Billings last year.

Their performances are extremely comparable.

Unlike Vitters, Soto has hit well everywhere he's been. And no, their performances aren't comparable unless you think a 120 point difference in OPS is similar. Neftali Soto has outperformed Josh Vitters and it really hasn't been all that close so far.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Unlike Vitters, Soto has hit well everywhere he's been. And no, their performances aren't comparable unless you think a 120 point difference in OPS is similar. Neftali Soto has outperformed Josh Vitters and it really hasn't been all that close so far.

Very small sample sizes on both sides. Very difficult to compare on numbers alone.

[edabbs44]

OBM with some ink:

Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
How come Drew Stubbs fell out of the top 100 after having his best season?

A: John Manuel: Reports on his defense and tools in general actually weren't as good this year as they were before. I for one have lowered the ceiling of what it sounds like he'll be. He did have a better year in some ways but he also struck out a lot and hit fewer home rusn in '08; it seems less like that this is another Mike Cameron.

[edabbs44]

And a little love for me:

Q: Ed from NJ asks:
Why the love for Vitters while ignoring Neftali Soto?

A: John Manuel: Better athleticism and defense for Vitters; Soto's scouting report doesn't encourage me he'll stay at 3b -- limited range, rough footwork, below-average athlete. Not encouraging.

[OnBaseMachine]

Did Manuel just pull that out of his butt? Because that's the first time anyone's mentioned that about Stubbs. Kevin Goldstein's scouting report is the exact opposite of Manuel's. Heck, his fellow co-worker JJ Cooper's scouting report is the exact opposite of his. I'd love to know where Manuel got his info. Oh, and Stubbs struckout less in 2008 than he did in 2007 (123 K's in 470 AB in 2008, 142 K's in 497 AB in 2007).

[OnBaseMachine]

Um, Vitters is a better athlete and defender? Again, the first I've heard of that.

Kevin Goldstein says Vitters bat is his only tool. He says he doesn't run well and needs to improve his reactions and footwork at third base. Jim Callis (of BA) says Vitters has fringy speed now and it will become below average once he fills out. Yeah, he sure sounds like a great athlete.

Goldstein says Soto has good hands and a strong arm at third base, though he needs to improve his footwork. BA and BP agree that his speed is below average. Neither are great athletes.

It sounds like Manuel gets his info from a different source than his co-workers and other prospect evaluators.

Can't say I'm surprised. BA usually underrates Reds prospects. If Soto were drafted as high as Vitters he'd probably rank in the top 50.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Can't say I'm surprised. BA usually underrates Reds prospects. If Soto were drafted as high as Vitters he'd probably rank in the top 50.

I think you just answered your question. Its the same reason Drew Stubbs was ranked when he was struggling to adjust to professional baseball. The same reason Alonso is ranked in the top 35 when he has only a handful of professional at bats. And its the same reason that Cueto barely cracked to top 50 when many thought he was much more refined and closer to the bigs than Homer Bailey.

When you have over 150 teams that need to be scouted and analyzed only the top tier prospects are likely legit. Many people probably would refer to draft slot/signing bonuses, combine type numbers (arm strength, speed, footwork, etc.), and raw numbers. Too often by just looking at the summary you fail to recognize what separates player A from player B.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Very small sample sizes on both sides. Very difficult to compare on numbers alone.

If they are such small sample sizes why give any ranking to Vitters then? The way you are going about this argument it would seem you are trying to make the point neither should be top 100 but still with an angle of defending Vitters.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

If they are such small sample sizes why give any ranking to Vitters then? The way you are going about this argument it would seem you are trying to make the point neither should be top 100 but still with an angle of defending Vitters.

Because there is more than just blanket looking at someone's total numbers. There is projection involved. Scouting. Differences in leagues. Sample sizes. Age in relation to level. Etc.

And, in this case, there isn't much of a difference in the numbers when you really look at them objectively.

Vitters was considered by some to be the top hitting prospect in the draft 2 years ago. That says a lot.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Because there is more than just blanket looking at someone's total numbers. There is projection involved. Scouting. Differences in leagues. Sample sizes. Age in relation to level. Etc.

And, in this case, there isn't much of a difference in the numbers when you really look at them objectively.

Vitters was considered by some to be the top hitting prospect in the draft 2 years ago. That says a lot.

2 years is long time for a prospect to develop. A guy could show his true colors by either putting it all together or falling flat on his face.

Basically anything 2 years old I will take with a grain of salt.