Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Hoosier Red · 03-12-2009, 12:07 PM

But he says don't worry. They're a good 24th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...l-rankings-24/

jojo · 03-12-2009, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

But he says don't worry. They're a good 24th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...l-rankings-24/

I think he summed up three months worth of Redszone archives with this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Cameron

The question, though, is what direction do they want to go in? On their face, this team isn't good enough to contend in 2009, but they've got significant assets tied to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero, who are just better fits for a contender than a rebuilder. But if they trade those guys, then there isn't enough good talent around the young core to avoid a lot of losses. It's something of a dilemma that Jocketty and company will have to figure out.

I wonder how his take on the Reds minor league system will play amongst regulars of Minor League Talk.

OnBaseMachine · 03-12-2009, 01:42 PM

Seriously, the Mariners above the Reds?

jojo · 03-12-2009, 01:47 PM

I'm waiting to hear his argument before passing judgment. He's an Ms fan but he also has a reputation for being fair and impartial and admitting his bias when he's not.

My guess is that the new FO, the bevy of upcoming draft picks this summer and the large amount of resources the Ms have (i.e. money to utilize, international scouting/player development, an already good player development system in shape for the new guard) are a big factor in his view of the Ms going forward. In short, the Ms aren't rebuilding completely from nothing-they've got alot of plusses already in place. Also, the Ms are in a division that may be weaker for the next year or two.

lollipopcurve · 03-12-2009, 01:55 PM

Quote:

I think he summed up three months worth of Redszone archives with this:

You could save yourself a lot of time by sticking to fangraphs, eh?

Fangraphs and Cameron are not unbiased. Dinging Jocketty for butting heads with Luhnow is clear evidence of that. These boys like their "analytics." An honest evaluation of their assessments should be made next year and in the years beyond. Right now, the rankings carry very little value. Just another fanboy list for now.

Quote:

I wonder how his take on the Reds minor league system will play amongst regulars of Minor League Talk.

Unimpressed. It makes no sense to downgrade a team's system based on how it meshes with the major league club, as he does regarding Alonso/Votto. Talent is talent.

jojo · 03-12-2009, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

You could save yourself a lot of time by sticking to fangraphs, eh?

Not really. The author's point was that the Reds seem to be at a crossroads without an obvious course to follow. It's legitimate to wonder what Jocketty is planning to do IMHO-we've spent alot of time doing just that on Redszone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Unimpressed. It makes no sense to downgrade a team's system based on how it meshes with the major league club, as he does regarding Alonso/Votto. Talent is talent.

I think his grade was colored by his argument that their system's one compelling answer is an answer without a question.

IslandRed · 03-12-2009, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojo

I think his grade was colored by his argument that their system's one compelling answer is an answer without a question.

It shouldn't be a concern. Compelling Answers, should Alonso prove to be one, can be brought to bear on a Question pretty much 100% of the time. It may be one-off from the original expected Question, but that never stopped a decent GM.

lollipopcurve · 03-12-2009, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Not really. The author's point was that the Reds seem to be at a crossroads without an obvious course to follow. It's legitimate to wonder what Jocketty is planning to do IMHO-we've spent alot of time doing just that on Redszone.

The future of no organization is guaranteed, nor especially well understood.

The lazy may not know that the Reds have a pretty talented young core and have announced a shift towards building speed and defense into their roster. Likewise, the lazy may not know the club has shifted gears dramatically in Latin America, going from non-players to spending as much as anyone there last year. Just to name the most obvious harbingers of the future in Cincinnati.

So, Cameron limits his evaluation pretty much to a judgment about how much the FO relies on analytics. And what does he really know about that? Just very little there, so far as I can see.

jojo · 03-12-2009, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

The future of no organization is guaranteed, nor especially well understood.

The lazy may not know that the Reds have a pretty talented young core and have announced a shift towards building speed and defense into their roster. Likewise, the lazy may not know the club has shifted gears dramatically in Latin America, going from non-players to spending as much as anyone there last year. Just to name the most obvious harbingers of the future in Cincinnati.

So, Cameron limits his evaluation pretty much to a judgment about how much the FO relies on analytics. And what does he really know about that? Just very little there, so far as I can see.

He considered ownership, the FO, the major league roster and the minor league system. It wasn't a "stats vs scouting" grade. I'm not sure why the automatic assumption is one of laziness?

jojo · 03-12-2009, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IslandRed

It shouldn't be a concern. Compelling Answers, should Alonso prove to be one, can be brought to bear on a Question pretty much 100% of the time. It may be one-off from the original expected Question, but that never stopped a decent GM.

Right but the author was basically arguing for the singular rather than the plural...

bucksfan2 · 03-12-2009, 02:27 PM

The article seems to downgrade the Reds because of Jocketty and his opposition to fully embrace the analytical aspect of baseball.

Quote:

He’ll do a pretty good job of putting together a roster, but he’s not going to create sustainable long term advantages that can make up for their mid-market payroll size.

I guess what confuses me is he did this in St. Louis. He built a winner and a team who has been relevant for almost every year over the past decade. To me this seems more like sour grapes towards Jocketty and his ways.

I give him a pass on the minor league aspect of things. What hurts the Reds is that they don't have much top end talent. And as he mentions Alonso is a 1b only blocked by the teams best player. In order to get a true judge of talent you almost need to focus on minor league baseball only.

lollipopcurve · 03-12-2009, 02:31 PM

Quote:

He considered ownership, the FO, the major league roster and the minor league system. It wasn't a "stats vs scouting" grade. I'm not sure why the automatic assumption is one of laziness?

Because he claimed there was no way to divine the direction the organization is heading, while the signs are clear to see. As usual, he defaults to "where do they stand re: 'analytics'?" and makes a judgment based on a tiff that happened years ago in a different place and about which he has no real information. Yeah, he wrote a lot of words, but some of us are just naturally windy.

jojo · 03-12-2009, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

The article seems to downgrade the Reds because of Jocketty and his opposition to fully embrace the analytical aspect of baseball.

I guess what confuses me is he did this in St. Louis. He built a winner and a team who has been relevant for almost every year over the past decade. To me this seems more like sour grapes towards Jocketty and his ways.

I give him a pass on the minor league aspect of things. What hurts the Reds is that they don't have much top end talent. And as he mentions Alonso is a 1b only blocked by the teams best player. In order to get a true judge of talent you almost need to focus on minor league baseball only.

Presumable Cameron is assuming Jocketty will operate under a different payroll situation than he had in St Louis.

jojo · 03-12-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Because he claimed there was no way to divine the direction the organization is heading, while the signs are clear to see. As usual, he defaults to "where do they stand re: 'analytics'?" and makes a judgment based on a tiff that happened years ago in a different place and about which he has no real information. Yeah, he wrote a lot of words, but some of us are just naturally windy.

Actually the situation surrounding Jocketty getting pushed out of the FO in St Louis is pretty well documented.

I think the assertion that the Reds are undergoing a meaningful paradigm shift is a very contentious one here on Redszone. That's been discussed quite a bit on here since the holiday season.

Jocketty does value defense and perhaps that is a reason for some of the moves he's made but certainly how effectively he is going about roster building is a source of great debate amongst Reds fans.

To ding Cameron on that point is really cutting a very wide swath of Reds nation too....

lollipopcurve · 03-12-2009, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Jocketty does value defense and perhaps that is a reason for some of the moves he's made but certainly how effectively he is going about roster building is a source of great debate amongst Reds fans.

Of course. Fans always debate. What does that have to do with a self-appointed expert's judgment that the organization has no discernable direction?

03-12-2009, 12:07 PM	#1
Hoosier Red Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 6,853	Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization But he says don't worry. They're a good 24th. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...l-rankings-24/ __________________ When people say that I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life. ---Joe Posnanski

03-12-2009, 01:42 PM	#3
OnBaseMachine Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 34,655	Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization Seriously, the Mariners above the Reds? __________________ I miss Adam Dunn.

03-12-2009, 01:47 PM	#4
jojo Five Tool Fool Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 16,569	Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization I'm waiting to hear his argument before passing judgment. He's an Ms fan but he also has a reputation for being fair and impartial and admitting his bias when he's not. My guess is that the new FO, the bevy of upcoming draft picks this summer and the large amount of resources the Ms have (i.e. money to utilize, international scouting/player development, an already good player development system in shape for the new guard) are a big factor in his view of the Ms going forward. In short, the Ms aren't rebuilding completely from nothing-they've got alot of plusses already in place. Also, the Ms are in a division that may be weaker for the next year or two. __________________ "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner Last edited by jojo; 03-12-2009 at 01:52 PM.

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