From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Looks like Dunn is "worth" around 15 runs more than Taveras, if the calculations and projections are correct. Is that worth the millions that Dunn would have cost more than Taveras? How about when you consider where those millions can be used to help in other areas?

If we go with 1 win = $5M then yep, it would have been worth it. And they both got two year deals!

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

If we go with 1 win = $5M then yep, it would have been worth it. And they both got two year deals!

If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.

[JinAZ]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Who's the better defensive centerfielder in YOUR mind, Chris Dickerson or Willy Taveras?

I only saw Dickerson play a handful of times last year, so I can't have any kind of informed idea on this. Here's my data:

CHONE's defensive ratings.

Taveras = +3 runs/150 g in CF
Dickerson = -5 runs/150 g in CF

Both would be plus in a corner outfield slot.

Unfortunately, in Dickerson's case, we have very minimal data here. His fielding numbers have a very slow sample size, so they're heavily regressed to the mean. They would be regressed to the Fan's Scouting Report--my favorite source of info for players with a season or less in MLB on the books--but as a late-season addition he wasn't included.

So, if you want to argue he's a plus fielder based on your observations last season, I won't argue and I'll hope you're right.
-j

[JinAZ]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.

I think the point was that this cost difference is fair market value for Dunn's extra production. You'd have to beat fair market value to do better, and that's hard (though of course not impossible) to do.
-j

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.

Do you think this is a 73 win club? If that is your baseline then I agree with you. I think a Reds team with Adam Dunn and a better shortstop could be in the Wild Card hunt...

[jojo]

Assume Bruce can be roughly a 2.5 win OFer this year (which is what he's basically projected to be assuming he's a neutral defender). It would be pretty tough for the rest of the outfield not to be better than Jr+Corey circa '08.

The improvement is likely to come from the defense. Taveras is a push over Patterson/Hairston. So the gains will be on the corners vs Jr and Dunn from last year. Of course that is if Gomes isn't getting significant defensive innings as a platoon partner.

Given the production the Reds actually got last season, the Reds in reality aren't looking at a 4 win upgrade in their outfield over last season unless something truly extraordinary happens (Lord Bruce is anointed, cough, cough).

[BRM]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Do you think this is a 73 win club? If that is your baseline then I agree with you. I think a Reds team with Adam Dunn and a better shortstop could be in the Wild Card hunt...

Is that with Dickerson or Taveras in CF? Or does it matter?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by jojo

It would be pretty tough for the rest of the outfield not to be better than Jr+Corey circa '08.

I think that is an important distinction. The difference is because of Jr+Corey and not Dunn (well, his defense is why it won't be THAT difficult to replace him, but at least he was an above-average player)...

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by BRM

Is that with Dickerson or Taveras in CF? Or does it matter?

I'd split the playing time until I knew what I had in Dickerson...

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

They aren't?

Love to see his projections for a Dunn-Dickerson-Bruce OF.

Are we allowed to mention that name around these parts anymore?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Looks like Dunn is "worth" around 15 runs more than Taveras, if the calculations and projections are correct. Is that worth the millions that Dunn would have cost more than Taveras? How about when you consider where those millions can be used to help in other areas?

Would you rather spend $20 Million over 2 years for a known, highly productive commodity, or $6 Million over that same 2 years for a crap shoot (in every sense of the word/phrase)?

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

They aren't?

Love to see his projections for a Dunn-Dickerson-Bruce OF.

You have all 3 on your fantasy team?

[AtomicDumpling]

Does anyone have access to the Reds' monthly DER numbers for 2008? I am curious as to whether the Reds defensive efficiency improved after Dunn and Griffey departed.

[jojo]

Month	 DER
April	0.689
May	0.660
June	0.690
July	0.657
August	0.660
Sept	0.680

Overall: .673

[M2]

Three things -

1. What was the offensive measurement used for 2008 and projection system for 2009? Dunn's about 8-10 runs low if you're using VORP or WARP.

2. Since Taveras rated below average in other defensive measurements (e.g. -6 in UZR/150), I'd be reluctant to rate him as a plus defender. Fielding Bible also rates Patterson as one of the best defensive CFs of the past three seasons.

3. The larger story here is the OF still projects as below average. When you turn over the entire unit, the end result shouldn't be that it's still kind of bad.