Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Anyways I think one thing about Stubbs that is pretty amazing is that hes consistantly had a pretty good OBP. Its never been BA driven which is a good sign.

Stubbs needs a full year at AAA. I wouldn't even give him a cup of coffee in September this year. If he can figure out the power part, and make adjustments (something his stats last year say he had a little trouble with) then he isn't a bust. This is coming from someone that thought he was a waste of a pick.

I'd like to see his power match his size a bit more, and I think Heisey is hot on his heals, and maybe passing him as the top CF in the system. In a larger sample, Heaisey has outhit Stubbs at AA, and by a wide margin. Stubbs has run more this season, but Heisey has been more successful. Power wise, Heisey in a landslide.

And none of that makes Stubbs a bust right now. The Reds have an interesting OF situation developing. Heisey, Frazier, Dorn (I think he's starting to heat up.) and Stubbs. Alonso is a wildcard that could force Votto to LF (I don't think he should, but he could.)

It looks like the Reds once again are about to have a glut of outfielders.

[GIDP]

I certainly wouldnt have a problem trying to deal Stubbs. Heisey would make that decision a little bit easier in my mind. Id take either of them, and trade either of them.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

The Reds have two center field prospects who are playing well in the upper minors right now. Drew Stubbs is hitting .310/.400/.442 - .842 OPS with 15 stolen bases in 19 attempts in Triple-A. Down in Double-A, Chris Heisey is hitting .358/.444/.574 - 1.018 OPS with nine stolen bases in 10 attempts. Both guys are very good defenders too. My hope is one of them can push Willy Taveras to the bench by late this season.

My hope is that Willy Taveras keeps playing effectively so there is no reason to replace him this year or next with a guy from the minor leagues. Maybe in two years, when perhaps WT's speed starts to fade a bit, but not before then.

Yesterday was a good example of what WT brings. Tejada made two errors when WT was hitting -- WT's speed has that effect on some fielders. He is playing plus centerfield and is a threat to steal at all times. As long as he keeps hitting those ground balls and liners, and avoiding pop ups and Ks, he tends to make things happen.

I hope Stubbs and Heisey develop into starting centerfielders, but it's more likely that they -- not Taveras -- will be on the Reds bench initially when they arrive. And that's ok, because a one-year major league apprenticeship is good for all but the top rookies. With injuries and the like, they'll get some opportunities to show their stuff.

[GIDP]

there is a very strong chance that Heisey or Stubbs are going to be much much better than Willy is.

I certainly hope for the Reds that they can push a guy like Willy to the bench considering hes not really that good.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Kc61

My hope is that Willy Taveras keeps playing effectively so there is no reason to replace him this year or next with a guy from the minor leagues. Maybe in two years, when perhaps WT's speed starts to fade a bit, but not before then.

Yesterday was a good example of what WT brings. Tejada made two errors when WT was hitting -- WT's speed has that effect on some fielders. He is playing plus centerfield and is a threat to steal at all times. As long as he keeps hitting those ground balls and liners, and avoiding pop ups and Ks, he tends to make things happen.

I hope Stubbs and Heisey develop into starting centerfielders, but it's more likely that they -- not Taveras -- will be on the Reds bench initially when they arrive. And that's ok, because a one-year major league apprenticeship is good for all but the top rookies. With injuries and the like, they'll get some opportunities to show their stuff.

Taveras has a .335 OBP and a .683 OPS. He's not really getting the job done. Plus, he takes horrible routes on defense. He misplayed a line drive yesterday into a double. I watched Drew Stubbs during spring training - he is just as fast as Willy Taveras. It's amazing that a guy that big can run that fast.

[RedsManRick]

If Taveras is getting on base at a reasonable clip, I imagine he'll be attractive as a trade target for somebody. While he's not a good fit for us given the CF talent we have in waiting, his contract is actually quite reasonable if he can sustain that .340 OBP.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Pony Boy

How did Bagwell suddenly develop into a premier power hitter? I'm sure there is some explanation, I just can't imagine what it is.

Well, a .243 career ISO (.540 SLG), half of it played in a great pitchers park, is pretty darn powerful. 449 career homers, 34th all time, is premier in my book.

[fearofpopvol1]

I have a feeling we'll see Stubbs in Cincinnati before the end of a season.

He's had a great year this year...but what kind of numbers does he need to put up in the majors to not be considered a "bust?" And how long of a leash do you give him? Or will he ALWAYS be considered a bust by many here because he's not Lincecum? And will probably never hit over .300 or hit more than 15 HRs?

[RedEye]

I'm not sure any draft pick that makes the majors and plays some useful role can really be considered a complete "bust" when so many wash out even earlier.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Wasn't Jeff Bagwell also a "doubles hitter" in the minors? .

Bags was a doubles hitter at New Britain, one of the largest parks in the minors. he also grew much stronger

Kirby Puckett became a more unlikely power hitter, and has been used as a poster boy for how "power is the tool that develops last." Kirby thanked hitting coach Tony Oliva, but there were MANY suggestions of steroids at the time. to me it's always been interesting that Kirby never got officially linked to PEDs. the man had several early-onset health issues, died very young, and there were reports of off-field behavior that just didn't jibe with the baseball persona.

personal favorite, though. Kirby was a great player to watch.