John Sickels on the Reds draft

[OnBaseMachine]

Cincinnati: While some might consider Arizona State RHP Mike Leake an overdraft at eighth overall, I don't; I think that's an excellent pick. He has very good stuff, and his excellent pitchability makes it all play up. USC RHP Brad Boxberger in the supplemental round needs to sharpen his control, but he is also an experienced college pitcher with good stuff, and also a legitimate pick in that spot. Second round Mississippi prep shortstop Billy Hamilton is an incredible athlete; quite raw, but with very high upside. University of Houston lefty Donnie Joseph looks like a sound choice in the third round, on the basis of his low-90s fastball, good slider, and strong college numbers. Fourth round UNC catcher Mark Fleury has decent power, a measure of patience, and should be solid with the glove. Dan Tuttle, fifth round North Carolina HS RHP, is a raw arm, but adds some youth to a college-oriented draft. Sixth round Oral Roberts RHP Mark Serrano and seventh round Cal State Fullerton OF Josh Fellhauer are steady college performers who won't be stars but should get to the majors in some capacity. I like the mixture of skill picks with some tool picks.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/...-central-draft

[kfm]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Cincinnati: While some might consider Arizona State RHP Mike Leake an overdraft at eighth overall, I don't; I think that's an excellent pick. He has very good stuff, and his excellent pitchability makes it all play up. USC RHP Brad Boxberger in the supplemental round needs to sharpen his control, but he is also an experienced college pitcher with good stuff, and also a legitimate pick in that spot. Second round Mississippi prep shortstop Billy Hamilton is an incredible athlete; quite raw, but with very high upside. University of Houston lefty Donnie Joseph looks like a sound choice in the third round, on the basis of his low-90s fastball, good slider, and strong college numbers. Fourth round UNC catcher Mark Fleury has decent power, a measure of patience, and should be solid with the glove. Dan Tuttle, fifth round North Carolina HS RHP, is a raw arm, but adds some youth to a college-oriented draft. Sixth round Oral Roberts RHP Mark Serrano and seventh round Cal State Fullerton OF Josh Fellhauer are steady college performers who won't be stars but should get to the majors in some capacity. I like the mixture of skill picks with some tool picks.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/...-central-draft

Thanks for posting this. Looks like someone likes the Reds draft.

[KoryMac5]

I think folks will warm to the draft based on what they see these kids do at each stop in the minors. Personally at the time I wasn't very excited about some of these kids, but I am starting to warm slowly as new information on these players becomes available. I mean how many years did it take for people to warm to Drew Stubbs?

[GIDP]

John Sickels always seems to like the Reds.

[Mario-Rijo]

I wasn't happy with the Boxberger pick and don't know if I'll ever be, I also thought Joseph was a bit of a reach where he was selected and Hamilton as well to a much lesser extent. Had they shifted those guys around a bit I'd have been completely content. Something like Leake, insert high upside high talent and highly skilled player here, Hamilton, Boxberger and then Joseph i'd have been a lot happier. That said guys like Silva, Marrero, Perez, Tuttle, Fellhauer, Fleury, Barnhart, Pearl, Serrano, Johnson and Fowler more than make up for it. Assuming of course they can actually sign all or most of them. It's really hard not to like what they have done here. Although an arm or 2 who can consistently hit mid to high 90's sure would have been nice to have gotten. But overall if they sign Marrero, Perez, Silva, Tuttle and Barnhart (along with the collegians) I'll be ecstatic about this draft.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I wasn't happy with the Boxberger pick and don't know if I'll ever be, I also thought Joseph was a bit of a reach where he was selected and Hamilton as well to a much lesser extent. Had they shifted those guys around a bit I'd have been completely content. Something like Leake, insert high upside high talent and highly skilled player here, Hamilton, Boxberger and then Joseph i'd have been a lot happier. That said guys like Silva, Marrero, Perez, Tuttle, Fellhauer, Fleury, Barnhart, Pearl, Serrano, Johnson and Fowler more than make up for it. Assuming of course they can actually sign all or most of them. It's really hard not to like what they have done here. Although an arm or 2 who can consistently hit mid to high 90's sure would have been nice to have gotten. But overall if they sign Marrero, Perez, Silva, Tuttle and Barnhart (along with the collegians) I'll be ecstatic about this draft.

Not trying to be snide, but I'm perplexed about the highlighted statement. Regardless of how it shakes out, we still have the same players. While I understand draft position will impact signability and bonuses, if we sign all of these guys (and Hamilton and Joseph are in the fold) what difference does it make?

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Not trying to be snide, but I'm perplexed about the highlighted statement. Regardless of how it shakes out, we still have the same players. While I understand draft position will impact signability and bonuses, if we sign all of these guys (and Hamilton and Joseph are in the fold) what difference does it make?

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

Well it would be hard to disagree with his statement because we then would have gotten all of the talent we did get a round later. However none of those guys would have been available a round later. I still don't understand why there is so much hate on Boxberger. What is the difference between Boxberger and a guy like Alex White who was rumored to go inside the top 10 and ultimately went 15th to the Indians? I don't see the difference at all.

[OnBaseMachine]

At first, I wasn't a big fan of the Boxberger pick but after doing some more research, I really don't mind the pick now. According to BA, he throws his fastball at 91-93 and touches 94, he also mixes in a curveball and circle changeup. BA says all three of his pitches have plus potential. In addition to his solid stuff, he put up some good numbers in the tough Pac-10 this season - 94 IP, 69 H, 4 HR, 50 BB/99 K. The one knock on Boxberger appears to be his control. The hit/HR and strikeout totals are nice but the walks are a little high. He'll need to work on that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

At first, I wasn't a big fan of the Boxberger pick but after doing some more research, I really don't mind the pick now. According to BA, he throws his fastball at 91-93 and touches 94, he also mixes in a curveball and circle changeup. BA says all three of his pitches have plus potential. In addition to his solid stuff, he put up some good numbers in the tough Pac-10 this season - 94 IP, 69 H, 4 HR, 50 BB/99 K. The one knock on Boxberger appears to be his control. The hit/HR and strikeout totals are nice but the walks are a little high. He'll need to work on that.

Sounds about right. I guess my question is, at that point in the draft, who doesn't have a wart on their resume? Everyone did at that point so I just don't get the issues with him.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sounds about right. I guess my question is, at that point in the draft, who doesn't have a wart on their resume? Everyone did at that point so I just don't get the issues with him.

Yep. I was a fan of taking Scheppers at 43 if he was available, but I understand the Reds decision to pass on him. I guess they figured there's a better chance of Boxberger improving his control and developing into a #3 starter than Scheppers overcoming a tear in his pitching shoulder and becoming a #1 starter.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

Yeah pretty much what I meant HB, thanks. Although not necc. Scheppers but plenty other guys right there to take. Obviously I'd have had to lose one of the guys we got somewhere down the line but who really knows where. As far as them not being available later I don't know that to be true. This being a little different from the NFL and NBA drafts where teams can have vastly different views of players they very well could have had a guy drop a round. 2 rounds, maybe not but again not a big fan of Boxberger so if he was the guy I lost for picking up another so be it. I mean could we have done better than Sean Watson at the time? What about Tyler Cline, Scott Carroll? It may be premature to question these choices but so far their track record in reaching for arms early in drafts is mostly miss.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Yeah pretty much what I meant HB, thanks. Although not necc. Scheppers but plenty other guys right there to take. Obviously I'd have had to lose one of the guys we got somewhere down the line but who really knows where. As far as them not being available later I don't know that to be true. This being a little different from the NFL and NBA drafts where teams can have vastly different views of players they very well could have had a guy drop a round. 2 rounds, maybe not but again not a big fan of Boxberger so if he was the guy I lost for picking up another so be it. I mean could we have done better than Sean Watson at the time? What about Tyler Cline, Scott Carroll? It may be premature to question these choices but so far their track record in reaching for arms early in drafts is mostly miss.

Tyler Cline was a 4th round pick last year and he has thrown less than 10 innings and he was a reach? Scott Carroll wasn't really a reach and Sean Watson wasn't either at the time of the draft. I just can't see how you can throw those guys all in the 'miss category'.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tyler Cline was a 4th round pick last year and he has thrown less than 10 innings and he was a reach? Scott Carroll wasn't really a reach and Sean Watson wasn't either at the time of the draft. I just can't see how you can throw those guys all in the 'miss category'.

Well they sure haven't set the world on fire Doug. Watson is just now having any real consistency besides Low A ball where he could get away with 1 good pitch, Scott Carroll has done what but toil and Cline has barely even pitched yet after close to a year being with the organization. I'd like to see a bit more out of top 5 round selections. You have guys drafted after them who actually have better track records of some success just in this organization alone. 3 years from now if Boxberger is in AA and maybe has a shot at being a good reliever will that be considered a good selection by most here, by anybody? For a 1st round selection? No I doubt it.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

could we have done better than Sean Watson at the time? What about Tyler Cline, Scott Carroll? It may be premature to question these choices but so far their track record in reaching for arms early in drafts is mostly miss.

I think that you make a fair point. In three years, the big pitching adds are Roenicke and Stewart and Sulbaran. That's not bad (we've had worse, believe me) but it's not a world-beating record either. We've done much better in the hitting department.

I think that part of that has been due to the philosophy of drafting tall guys with lots of upside but lots of needs. That's tough, when development is not a Reds forte. You might see big late improvement (in other words, be patient), but it might also be a matter of square peg/round hole.

on the plus side, it strikes me that the scouts adjusted to the developmental reality and opted in 2009 for shorter guys that are closer to the majors. Boxberger fits. I've no problem with the pick.

first 2 Buckley drafts: average height of pitchers taken in top 13 rounds; 6'3.5"

last 2 drafts: 6'1.4"

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