Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That is simply incorrect. What people do say is he either needs to walk more or strikeout less because guys can't be successful major leaguers with such a discrepency between your walks and strikeouts. You can get by without walking much, but you have to put the ball in play 90% of the time and he doesn't. So he needs to walk more often than he has.

Just wanted to add this chart I just made. I went back to 1960 all the way through last year and took every player with 300 at bats in a season. I then broke them down by K/BB in groupings of 0.50's. I then arranged those groupings by OPS and figured out the % of batters in that group who went on to OPS .800 or higher in the season that they posted that K/BB.



Juan on the season is in that last group at 4.60. Over his hot streak he is only at 3.23. That is an area where he could have success, but the odds still are less than 20% that he could OPS .800. The 4.60+ he has been at for his entire career isn't.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Just wanted to add this chart I just made. I went back to 1960 all the way through last year and took every player with 300 at bats in a season. I then broke them down by K/BB in groupings of 0.50's. I then arranged those groupings by OPS and figured out the % of batters in that group who went on to OPS .800 or higher in the season that they posted that K/BB.



Juan on the season is in that last group at 4.60. Over his hot streak he is only at 3.23. That is an area where he could have success, but the odds still are less than 20% that he could OPS .800. The 4.60+ he has been at for his entire career isn't.

Doug, I do want to commend you on the graph. It's interesting, for sure.

What I wonder, though, is could you find the same results by simply using walk rates and comparing that to OPS over 800? I imagine you'll find a very similar graph. If so, then the "K" part of the equation is, if not meaningless, a very small portion of what's fueling the success.

I find K/BB to be important. However, I think the K aspect is only important under extreme conditions one way or another. If a player hovers around an average K-rate, it's the walks then that concern me.

In this case, I simply think the K/BB ratio tells us what we already know: that Francisco needs to walk more.

[lollipopcurve]

It's really unbelievable how Reds fans refuse to see the value JF could have to the Reds. It seems that some fans read the BB column and black out all else.

This guy is a powerhouse. He could be a major long ball hitter. His OBP skills are improving and his power and RBI games are off the charts. He is just 22.

I'm glad the Reds seem to see his value, even if fans would prefer a dozen other prospects.

Absolutely right, in my opinion. Many posters have been writing this guy off for years and are unwilling to revise what they say about him. It's more about being right than evaluating the kid objectively. He may be one of the elite power prospects in the game right now. He needs development time, still, but he's a very, very interesting bat. I'd have to think there are AL teams out there who'd love to have this kid coming up as a future DH.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Absolutely right, in my opinion. Many posters have been writing this guy off for years and are unwilling to revise what they say about him. It's more about being right than evaluating the kid objectively. He may be one of the elite power prospects in the game right now. He needs development time, still, but he's a very, very interesting bat. I'd have to think there are AL teams out there who'd love to have this kid coming up as a future DH.

I'm not saying "release him, hes a lost cause." Juan is a prospect I dont want to get rid of unless hes getting us a good return but I also know the chances he turns into something are relatively slim compared to a lot of our other prospects. Frazier and Cozart both have the body of work that I'm confident in translating to the next level. They need some slight polishing while Juan still being chiseled out of the stone. Both Frazier and Cozart could be major leaguers next year, and I'd even suggest they should be given a fair shot to be major leaguers over a lot of the other options, Juan wont be for at least 2 years baring some major changes in his skill set even if that skill set has been improving.

I feel like I'm typing the same thing in 2 threads.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Just wanted to add this chart I just made. I went back to 1960 all the way through last year and took every player with 300 at bats in a season. I then broke them down by K/BB in groupings of 0.50's. I then arranged those groupings by OPS and figured out the % of batters in that group who went on to OPS .800 or higher in the season that they posted that K/BB.



Juan on the season is in that last group at 4.60. Over his hot streak he is only at 3.23. That is an area where he could have success, but the odds still are less than 20% that he could OPS .800. The 4.60+ he has been at for his entire career isn't.

Doug, the chart you made doesn't tell me very much about Francisco. The group of hitters included in the high K/BB ratio group likely includes a very high percentage of guys who lack JF's hitting skills entirely. If you include slap hitters in your high K/BB group, of course they will hardly ever have a high OPS. It's apples and oranges unless you refine your groups and control for other factors.

Further, Doug, JF's strikeout rate the last two years has been modest for a power hitter. He just doesn't strike out that much for a long ball guy. If 19 percent is the correct rate, just look at the big power guys they almost all are higher than that. There have been years when major power hitters fan 25 percent of official at bats and are still productive.

JF does have an issue on walks, but -- and here Dusty's old school analysis is correct -- JF seems to have the ability to convert bad pitches to successful outcomes. He obviously swings at too many bad pitches (he doesn't walk) yet his batting average and RBIs are always very reasonable. He left AA at .281 or thereabouts. He's hitting the bad ball successfully more often than others do, so far.

Some of these analyses just emphasize the negative and ignore the positive. Focus on K and BB rates are fine, but in analyzing them you need to look at the positives and weigh them. There are other prospects, like Soto, who strikeout a bit less, but their production so far pales in comparison to what JF has generated.

[GIDP]

Paul Janish and willy would actually be bringing down the other end of the chart.


Bah you edited it out

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Paul Janish would actually be bringing down the other end of the chart.


Bah you edited it out

I wasn't sure of the numbers for Janish or Taveras so I eliminated the particular names. But the point is the same.

If you took Doug's chart and you limited the participants to those with certain power hitting levels JF is likely to achieve, you might have something more on point.

For example, limit the group to hitters with 20 homers and 20 doubles per year on average. Fairly modest goals for JF. I think you'd see a different chart. I would venture to guess that hitters with 20 homers and 20 doubles per year have .800 OPS numbers fairly frequently -- even with high K/BB rates.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I wasn't sure of the numbers for Janish or Taveras so I eliminated the particular names. But the point is the same.

If you took Doug's chart and you limited the participants to those with certain power hitting levels JF is likely to achieve, you might have something more on point.

For example, limit the group to hitters with 20 homers and 20 doubles per year on average. Fairly modest goals for JF. I think you'd see a different chart. I would venture to guess that hitters with 20 homers and 20 doubles per year have .800 OPS numbers fairly frequently -- even with high K/BB rates.

Some guys with the worst K/BB rates this year are Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mike Jacobs, and Jose Guillen and none of them come close to a .800 OPS. They all have substantial amounts of power.

Players with the highest ISOs all have very good k/bb rates and none have Juans rate.

I dont know if thats what you are asking but just quickly looking at it thats what I come up with.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Some guys with the worst K/BB rates this year are Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mike Jacobs, and Jose Guillen and none of them come close to a .800 OPS. They all have substantial amounts of power.

Players with the highest ISOs all have very good k/bb rates and none have Juans rate.

I dont know if thats what you are asking but just quickly looking at it thats what I come up with.

Ryan Howard has a high K/BB rate. So do Adam Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Reynolds, Freddie Sanchez.

And aren't Jose Guillen and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- with very high K/BB rates -- good players having very successful careers? Jose Guillen may be a good comp for Francisco. I'd take a young Jose Guillen on this team over the group we have out there now.

K/BB rate - standing alone - isn't a determinative stat, nor is it necessarily a good predictor. Keep in mind, JF is still a developing player so we don't even know what his major league K/BB rate will be once he settles in at the big league level.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Ryan Howard has a high K/BB rate. So do Adam Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Reynolds, Freddie Sanchez.

And aren't Jose Guillen and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- with very high K/BB rates -- good players having very successful careers? Jose Guillen may be a good comp for Francisco. I'd take a young Jose Guillen on this team over the group we have out there now.

K/BB rate - standing alone - isn't a determinative stat, nor is it necessarily a good predictor. Keep in mind, JF is still a developing player so we don't even know what his major league K/BB rate will be once he settles in at the big league level.

Jose Guillen has slugged .500 once in his entire career and it came the year he spent in GABP. He was only over .470 two other times in his career. Guillen also has a career OPS of .764 for a corner outfielder. Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in SD so his OPS is tougher to gauge, but his OPS+ is league average for his career. Neither of those guys would be considered 'very successful' by my definition.

And you are right that we won't know his K/BB as a major leaguer, but why would we believe its going to dramatically improve over what he has shown as a minor leaguer? That just doesn't happen often. He has 2 years left to really hone in the strikezone. If he continues down the 4-1 path, there isn't much hope for him being a good major league hitter.

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Some of these analyses just emphasize the negative and ignore the positive. Focus on K and BB rates are fine, but in analyzing them you need to look at the positives and weigh them. There are other prospects, like Soto, who strikeout a bit less, but their production so far pales in comparison to what JF has generated.

I agree 1000%, Soto gets top 10 praise while Fransisco gets BBQed

[puca]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Ryan Howard has a high K/BB rate. So do Adam Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Reynolds, Freddie Sanchez.

And aren't Jose Guillen and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- with very high K/BB rates -- good players having very successful careers? Jose Guillen may be a good comp for Francisco. I'd take a young Jose Guillen on this team over the group we have out there now.

K/BB rate - standing alone - isn't a determinative stat, nor is it necessarily a good predictor. Keep in mind, JF is still a developing player so we don't even know what his major league K/BB rate will be once he settles in at the big league level.

Ryan Howards worst K/BB rate for a season (majors or minors) was roughly 3/1. He is at roughly 2/1 for his major league career. That is very high. But it is still light years ahead of JF.

A young Jose Guillen struggled to OPS 700 as a corner outfielder and was released four different times.

Your examples go a long way to proving doug's point.

[icehole3]

Im interested in hearing the Soto vs Fransisco comps

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by icehole3

I agree 1000%, Soto gets top 10 praise while Fransisco gets BBQed

Its all about projection. Soto has/had the looks to be easier to project as a major league regular. Until this year, Francisco had never shown anything resembling a clue of how to approach the plate with a plan and guys like that simply don't turn into successful major leaguers without making drastic changes and he hadn't shown any to that point (coming into 2009).

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Jose Guillen has slugged .500 once in his entire career and it came the year he spent in GABP. He was only over .470 two other times in his career. Guillen also has a career OPS of .764 for a corner outfielder. Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in SD so his OPS is tougher to gauge, but his OPS+ is league average for his career. Neither of those guys would be considered 'very successful' by my definition.

And you are right that we won't know his K/BB as a major leaguer, but why would we believe its going to dramatically improve over what he has shown as a minor leaguer? That just doesn't happen often. He has 2 years left to really hone in the strikezone. If he continues down the 4-1 path, there isn't much hope for him being a good major league hitter.

Guillen in his prime or Kouzmanoff would be upgrades on the Reds, unless you are comparing Kouz with Rolen in his prime at third base. Guillen did hit at GABP and if Francisco is his comp, hopefully Francisco will too. These guys are solid starting players in the major leagues and JF should be at least that. We'll see how many others on the Reds top ten list ever do as well.

As for improvement at the major league level over the minors, JF is still a just turned 22 year old developing in certain ways and he certainly could be a better major league hitter than he has shown to date. He has several years of maturation left to accomplish that.

It's interesting how you view JF as having hit a ceiling at age 22 in that certain tendencies, you say, aren't overcome. Yet Drew Stubbs is a much older prospect with a .726 OPS and you see all kinds of growth coming with his ultimate advancement to the big leagues.