Overdrafting and Overslotting

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by princeton

FYI: Reds classified 2nd rounder Hamilton's as a "two-sport contract". unlike other bonuses, his need not be paid out in full in the first year. Reds have option to spread it out over multiple years.

I assume this protects the signing team should the player decide to drop baseball and return to his other sport. team would then not need to pay the full bonus. In other words, he might have been a "cheap" pick in 2009 dollars, which might explain the Reds drafting him so high.

I wonder if team has option to cut the player early and get out of remaining bonus. I would doubt it.

So they went cheap on all five of their top picks!

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Ryan Wagner made it to the majors faster than anyone. Did you have a problem with the team drafting him?

Andrew Miller made the bigs in his first year. You just seem to cherry pick examples.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Andrew Miller made the bigs in his first year. You just seem to cherry pick examples.

It's not really cherry-picking when you're citing the only other Reds draftee to make the majors right away. It's not like I named Ariel Prieto (although I could have.)

FWIW I love Andrew Miller. Wanted him to fall down to the Reds in that draft (only so we could've passed on him for financial reasons, of course). And I do like Leake, have said it many times, although I would've preferred Green or Matzek.

I just don't think you can declare the draft a success if Leake hits the majors in 2011. He was drafted because he is expected to hit the majors sooner than anybody not named Strasburg. However, if he does well in the majors, and one other player from the Boxberger/Joseph/Hamilton/Fellhauer/Silva/Pearl/Serrano mix comes through as a premium-type player, then I'll like the draft. Otherwise, it seems like it could just be more of the same- a lot of supporting cast with no lead.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

So they went cheap on all five of their top picks!

You mean how they went over slot for both Leake and Boxberger?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You mean how they went over slot for both Leake and Boxberger?

With respect to other teams is all I care about. Going over the slotting system doesn't really mean you're "paying up" when not a single team abides by it. The Reds went over slot by less than almost any other team, hence they went cheap.

Is there a team that didn't go over slot in the Top 15?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

With respect to other teams is all I care about. Going over the slotting system doesn't really mean you're "paying up" when not a single team abides by it. The Reds went over slot by less than almost any other team, hence they went cheap.

Is there a team that didn't go over slot in the Top 15?

I don't really know. But let me know when the Reds started to take 'lesser' players in the draft. It certainly wasn't in the first 3 rounds, where guys actually get paid.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know. But let me know when the Reds started to take 'lesser' players in the draft. It certainly wasn't in the first 3 rounds, where guys actually get paid.

Well they did for sure in the 4th round, taking Fleury over Stassi and Bailey. And one could argue that they did when they took Boxberger over several of the other pitchers that were out there (Andrew Oliver being one of them.)

If you want to look at past drafts, they took Mesoraco over Porcello. I'm sure money had nothing to do with that. Ditto for Gruler over Kazmir- money was said to be an issue there as well.

But that isn't even necessarily the point. Again, my point in this thread is that they should be taking the (financial) risks on some of the later guys. Take the 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd (Oliver) or the 4th (Stassi, Bailey) or the 6th (von Rosenberg) or whatever round you want because of signability reasons. Pay the extra few hundred grand and sign him. That's how you infuse talent into your system with the draft, and it's pretty much the only way to do so for teams like the Reds with average/mediocre scouts and no money to spend in the FA market. Until they change one of those two (their scouts or their bank account), they better start throwing an extra million or two at the draft, or they'll continue to churn out more supporting cast and no leading actors.

[redsmetz]

. NM

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Well they did for sure in the 4th round, taking Fleury over Stassi and Bailey. And one could argue that they did when they took Boxberger over several of the other pitchers that were out there (Andrew Oliver being one of them.)

If you want to look at past drafts, they took Mesoraco over Porcello. I'm sure money had nothing to do with that. Ditto for Gruler over Kazmir- money was said to be an issue there as well.

But that isn't even necessarily the point. Again, my point in this thread is that they should be taking the (financial) risks on some of the later guys. Take the 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd (Oliver) or the 4th (Stassi, Bailey) or the 6th (von Rosenberg) or whatever round you want because of signability reasons. Pay the extra few hundred grand and sign him. That's how you infuse talent into your system with the draft, and it's pretty much the only way to do so for teams like the Reds with average/mediocre scouts and no money to spend in the FA market. Until they change one of those two (their scouts or their bank account), they better start throwing an extra million or two at the draft, or they'll continue to churn out more supporting cast and no leading actors.

There is a difference between being cheap and not spending the most. Not signing Porcello wasn't being cheap. Heck, at the time it was probably very smart. 7+ Million and a 40 man roster spot for a high school pitcher from the north? That is the definition of risky. Hindsight says it was probably a good move to make. As for Oliver.... I don't have any problem with having Hamilton or Boxberger instead of Oliver. There isn't much of a difference in the scouting reports between Boxberger and Oliver. Oliver got about $800,000 more though. The upgrade, if any, wasn't worth that much money. Max Stassi cost a million more than our 4th round pick. Van Rosenburg got $1.2M, which was also more than a million more than slot. We aren't talking small amounts here, we are talking large quantities of money. I think we both agree that we want the Reds to spend more on the draft, particularly on guys in the 3rd-5th rounds. You seem to want to spend money to spend money, rather than spend money wisely.