Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

[HokieRed]

Looks to me like JF's at about 1 in 22 W per AB. Can he get to 1 in 15? Because if he can that was Clemente's.

[GOYA]

If he learns to take that pitch down and in, throw his walk rate out the window. That appears to be his only poison from the small time I've seen him.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Kc61

The missing link in Cooper's analysis and the "trade him now" analyis is that JF just turned 22 in June, is already doing well at AAA, and has two more minor league seasons if he needs them.

I don't see any focus in Cooper's analysis - or your conclusion - that takes into account the stage of Francisco's development.

I happen to disagree with the conclusion. I think JF is an unusually gifted talent who has achieved a great deal with an approach that is less than optimal. You guys are all essentially giving up on him at the age of 22, a young 22.

Put aside the hype for a minute. Look at Jay Bruce's approach this year. The upper cutting and all the pop flies. Look at his OBP. I don't see people writing him off. His approach has flaws too, but people give him the time he deserves.

The other point is that Francisco has steadily improved. His K rate went way down as he hit the higher levels. All the talk that he Ks a lot is untrue. For a power hitter, his K rate is not high. Yes, in his first AAA games he fanned quite a bit, but it's a brand new level for him.

I think Francisco will be far more valuable in a year. Either as one of AAA's dominant hitters, or as a raw member of the Reds with enormous potential. My only concern about him is defensive position.

He may be 22 but he's already been on the 40 man for a year. Another 2 years on the 40 (or more) before he gets a taste, I doubt that happens. And then he has to go thru waivers if he can't hack it where you may lose him for nothing. If he was legitimately a good defender and wasn't gaining size/weight like he has then I'd agree keeping him and continuing to see if you can help him make the neccessary strides. But the distance he has to go is pretty far to make it so I trade him with some peak value. Unfortunately he may start sliding before we can get to that point as I'm not sure Dusty (who does seem to have to much input on minor leaguers) and Walt haven't yet seen enough to agree.

[lollipopcurve]

Way too early to assume this kid has hit peak value. His ceiling is high -- why not see if he keeps meeting the challenges he's given? It's not like the Reds couldn't use a young power hitter. As I've said several times, Francisco has been written off as a prospect since he was in Dayton. But he keeps progressing, keeps rifling EBHs all over the place, keeps improving his K/BB. Yet folks are scrambling to come up with reasons to get him out of the organization -- he's too big, he's on the 40-man too soon, etc., etc. It makes no sense to me.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Way too early to assume this kid has hit peak value. His ceiling is high -- why not see if he keeps meeting the challenges he's given? It's not like the Reds couldn't use a young power hitter. As I've said several times, Francisco has been written off as a prospect since he was in Dayton. But he keeps progressing, keeps rifling EBHs all over the place, keeps improving his K/BB. Yet folks are scrambling to come up with reasons to get him out of the organization -- he's too big, he's on the 40-man too soon, etc., etc. It makes no sense to me.

I dont see people scrambing to come up with reasons to get him out of the org. I think the guys saying hes not going to hit unless his walk and K rate improve are just being realist.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by GIDP

I dont see people scrambing to come up with reasons to get him out of the org. I think the guys saying hes not going to hit unless his walk and K rate improve are just being realist.

Agreed, I'd call it playing the odds. I have been calling it that way since I saw him in Dayton. Certainly I'd love to be wrong having him, Alonso, Frazier, Cozart and Heisey come up over the next year could really help out tremendously. But I don't see it unless again, something changes. He's improved a little over time but nothing close to what he needs to do. And besides someone needs to go anyway just too many guys for too few spots, with needs elsewhere. He's the one who although could make one of if not the biggest impact he's also the one least likely to do so, that in my mind screams make the trade before he gets exposed.

I did find a guy who walked comparably to Juan in the minors. This guy walked around the same amount but a little more, struck out far less, is more athletic but has Francisco disease. Swings at everything (still) and although Francisco has more power is just a better more disciplined bad ball hitter at similiar stages of their careers. His name is Jeff Francouer and yes Francouer doesn't even swing at some of the stuff Juan does. So please anyone arguing for Juan tell me how you don't see the same thing (but far worse) happening to him that has happened to Francouer's career.