Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

[Spring~Fields]

Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

April						
Chris Dickerson	        .205 .321 .341 .662
Brandon Phillips	.188 .293 .319 .612
Joey Votto		.346 .411 .568 .979
Johnny Gomes		Minors	
Wladimir Balentien 	.310 .323 .448 .771 Seattle
Ryan Hanigan		.357 .438 .429 .867
Adam Rosales		.500 .500 .500 1.000 2 AB
Paul Janish		.357 .438 .429 .867
Laynce Nix		.310 .355 .621 .976
Willy Taveras		.262 .351 .338 .689
Jay Bruce		.258 .338 .530 .868
Ramon Hernandez	        .246 .303 .344 .647
Drew Sutton		Minors			

May						June
Chris Dickerson	        .271 .417 .396 .813	Chris Dickerson	        .333 .394 .429 .823
Brandon Phillips	.352 .392 .682 1.074	Brandon Phillips	.253 .325 .394 .719
Joey Votto		.378 .541 .733 1.274	Joey Votto		.321 .387 .500 .887
Johnny Gomes		.375 .444 .438 .882	Johnny Gomes		.327 .424 .636 1.060
Wladimir Balentien 	.209 .260 .328 .588	Wladimir Balentien 	.205 .279 .385 .664
Ryan Hanigan		.314 .410 .392 .802	Ryan Hanigan		.318 .400 .379 .779
Adam Rosales		.241 .327 .356 .683	Adam Rosales		.079 .178 .079 .257
Paul Janish		.269 .345 .346 .691	Paul Janish		.148 .179 .185 .364
Laynce Nix		.242 .304 .484 .788	Laynce Nix		.254 .299 .493 .792
Willy Taveras		.269 .307 .333 .640	Willy Taveras		.167 .167 .208 .375
Jay Bruce		.212 .276 .487 .763	Jay Bruce		.187 .292 .385 .677
Ramon Hernandez	        .312 .383 .419 .802	Ramon Hernandez	        .174 .283 .314 .597
Drew Sutton		Minors			Drew Sutton		Minors

July						August
Chris Dickerson	        .215 .292 .277 .569	Chris Dickerson	        .375 .459 .469 .928
Brandon Phillips	.273 .314 .455 .769	Brandon Phillips	.197 .254 .311 .565
Joey Votto		.324 .352 .598 .950	Joey Votto		.188 .291 .290 .581
Johnny Gomes		.213 .304 .525 .829	Johnny Gomes		.239 .286 .587 .873
Wladimir Balentien 	.095 .208 .238 .446	Wladimir Balentien 	.282 .378 .385 .763
Ryan Hanigan		.297 .395 .324 .719	Ryan Hanigan		.140 .218 .200 .418
Adam Rosales		.273 .304 .545 .849	Adam Rosales		.212 .305 .346 .651
Paul Janish		.176 .333 .176 .509	Paul Janish		.148 .207 .148 .355	
Laynce Nix		.175 .242 .263 .505	Laynce Nix		.333 .367 .578 .945
Willy Taveras		.250 .273 .271 .544	Willy Taveras		.222 .236 .241 .477
Jay Bruce		.138 .138 .241 .379	Jay Bruce		DL	
Ramon Hernandez	        .273 .350 .303 .653	Ramon Hernandez	        DL	
Drew Sutton		.071 .133 .143 .276	Drew Sutton		.214 .267 .357 .624



Season
C. Dickerson	.274 .369 .373 .742
B. Phillips	.260 .320 .445 .765
Joey Votto	.308 .388 .535 .923
Jonny Gomes	.270 .351 .567 .919
W. Balentien	.275 .370 .375 .745
Ryan Hanigan	.275 .364 .335 .699
Adam Rosales	.209 .293 .323 .616
Paul Janish	.207 .285 .243 .528
Laynce Nix	.254 .306 .470 .776
Jay Bruce	.207 .283 .441 .724
R Hernandez	.249 .330 .355 .685
Drew Sutton	.167 .222 .286 .508
Willy Taveras	.238 .273 .284 .557


Janish Minor League
2008 25 Louisville IL AAA 	.252 .324 .387 .711
2007 24 Louisville IL AAA	.221 .278 .317 .594
2007 24 Chattanooga  AA	        .244 .358 .330 .688

Sutton Minor League
2009 26 2 Teams 2 Lgs AAA       .262 .382 .453 .835
2008 25 Corpus Christi AA	.317 .408 .523 .931
2007 24 Corpus Christi AA	.269 .351 .388 .738

[Dom Heffner]

I always thought it was called average for a reason.

Nobody hits their season end line every month, do they?

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

I always thought it was called average for a reason.

Nobody hits their season end line every month, do they?

I don't think so I don't know. I was just looking through them at ESPN stats, and I started wondering why some of the players seem to have the differences in their month to month, some slight, some significant. I really don't know why, other than an obvious such as injuries, fatigue etc. I thought that maybe others could shed some light on the reasons.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

Injuries, mechanical problems, and stochastic error.

[George Anderson]

It could be personal problems. Johnny Bench had a very subpar 1975 season which many felt his divorce that was on going thru during the 75' season was part of the reason why. Also I believe he injured his shoulder on a Gary Matthews tag of home during the 75' season.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by pahster

Injuries, mechanical problems, and stochastic error.

I learned something new already, I had to look that word up. I had never seen that before in my life

sto·chas·tic [stə kástik]
adj
1. statistics random: involving or showing random behavior
2. statistics involving probability: involving or subject to probabilistic behavior
3. involving guesswork: involving guesswork or conjecture (formal)

[Dom Heffner]

I just don't think the turning of the calendar effects most players.

Law of averages would say that you are going to have up and own months.

It's why it is called "average." You take all the numbers and average them together.

Of course with the case of the Reds- you have guys who don't have much talent- they can get hot for long enough to hold a job, but they aren't consistent enough to hit at a .300 clip the whole year.

The guys who can are superstars, but even they are going to fluctuate from any given time period.

Joey Votto OPsed at a 1.2 clip for the first part of the season- if he kept that up all year, he'd be a hall of famer. He can't keep that up, and it's just the law of averages.

I just don't see monthly fluctualtions as anything other than ordinary baseball.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by George Anderson

It could be personal problems. Johnny Bench had a very subpar 1975 season which many felt his divorce that was on going thru during the 75' season was part of the reason why.

I recall that. It was a bit nasty. We could call that personal distractions and that sometimes even effect the greatest in the game.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

I just don't think the turning of the calendar effects most players.

Law of averages would say that you are going to have up and own months.

It's why it is called "average." You take all the numbers and average them together.

Of course with the case of the Reds- you have guys who don't have much talent- they can get hot for long enough to hold a job, but they aren't consistent enough to hit at a .300 clip the whole year.

The guys who can are superstars, but even they are going to fluctuate from any given time period.

Joey Votto OPsed at a 1.2 clip for the first part of the season- if he kept that up all year, he'd be a hall of famer. He can't keep that up, and it's just the law of averages.

I just don't see monthly fluctualtions as anything other than ordinary baseball.

Each pitch from each pitcher is different, and each pitcher is different from month to month, and the individual swings are different per situation that leads to the compiling of the averages or stats?? I don’t know, maybe I’m thinking too much, right into an empty box?

I guess I see them sometimes as being very good, then other times I wonder who is wearing their uniform.

[RedsManRick]

Why, when you flip a coin, does it not alternate heads and tails perfectly? It's called variance and it's part of every event in life. Monthly splits are essentially random, centered around the players true level of ability.

Yes, there will be patterns if you look hard enough, but those patterns are not predictive over time. In other words, how well a guy has performed in Augusts past doesn't tell you anything insightful about how he's likely to perform next August.

[Dom Heffner]

I wonder this, too- look at Rich Harden. There are days he is the most unhittable pitcher in baseball and others he looks like me out there.

With Harden it's control- he stunk for a good part of the first half because he couldn't throw strikes. These guys are human- there are always going to be a certain number of starts where they dont have the best stuff. Some more than others.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Why, when you flip a coin, does it not alternate heads and tails perfectly? It's called variance and it's part of every event in life. Monthly splits are essentially random, centered around the players true level of ability.

Yes, there will be patterns if you look hard enough, but those patterns are not predictive over time. In other words, how well a guy has performed in Augusts past doesn't tell you anything insightful about how he's likely to perform next August.

I am not sure how to write or say this. But, is there a way to adjust players for that variance to maybe a more consistent core number? Kind of like saying for player X who OPS one month .1000, another month OPS .875, another month .925, then another month .773 and so forth. Is there a way to find out what they really are as a day to day player adjusted OPS? Or is that getting out there on the bizarre walk?

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

I wonder this, too- look at Rich Harden. There are days he is the most unhittable pitcher in baseball and others he looks like me out there.

With Harden it's control- he stunk for a good part of the first half because he couldn't throw strikes. These guys are human- there are always going to be a certain number of starts where they dont have the best stuff. Some more than others.

The common answer that the analysist seem to give for the pitchers is mechanics and release points etc. It makes sense that the pitch of the pitchers and the swings of the batter cannot be the same each attempt, so the outcomes will be different.

Talent and skills ?

[pahster]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

I am not sure how to write or say this. But, is there a way to adjust players for that variance to maybe a more consistent core number? Kind of like saying for player X who OPS one month .1000, another month OPS .875, another month .925, then another month .773 and so forth. Is there a way to find out what they really are as a day to day player adjusted OPS? Or is that getting out there on the bizarre walk?

It sounds like you're just talking about their seasonal averages.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by pahster

It sounds like you're just talking about their seasonal averages.

My question evolved as I read each of your comments. It came to mind, is there a way to tell what a player is, or since there are variances from time to time day, month, year, multiple years etc. Is there a way to boil down the numbers to a core number to say player X or Y is a certain numerical measurement, something more defining than the average.

Getting away from my orignal question in starting the thread, but, additional comments, provoke additional thinking and questions.