Monday Aug 31 Minor League Updates

[Bumstead]

Fielding-wise, how is Dorn is LF? If he is reasonable I would like to see the Reds give him a shot to platoon in LF (this assumes no big bat is forthcoming and a lack of $$ being spent).

[GIDP]

Ive heard hes average to a little below average.

[Bumstead]

like our other LF's then...I say give him or Frazier a shot out there in 2010. This assumes Balentien doesn't suddenly find the ability to hit...

Bum

[lollipopcurve]

Lefties will get the bulk of the PT, and Dorn does not profile as a guy who should be out there 80% of the time, in my opinion. Bat appears OK, but nothing exceptional even in AAA, defense and speed below average. Guy's a 5th OF, LH pinch hitter at best, IMO.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

like our other LF's then...I say give him or Frazier a shot out there in 2010. This assumes Balentien doesn't suddenly find the ability to hit...

Bum

Id say our LF were above average other than Gomes

[Bumstead]

Nix is our LH side of the platoon and he is a 5th OF at best...and I've seen him play LF and it was ugly so I don't think LF defense has been above average at all. Not sure why people want to stick with bad players and not give younger guys a chance; it just leads to more losing. Only 1 of Nix, Gomes and Taveras should be on any given MLB team, unless winning isn't something that is a goal for that particular team. Personally, I would pick Gomes to play against LHP only. Send the others packing.

Bum

[mace]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Nix is our LH side of the platoon and he is a 5th OF at best...and I've seen him play LF and it was ugly so I don't think LF defense has been above average at all. Not sure why people want to stick with bad players and not give younger guys a chance; it just leads to more losing. Only 1 of Nix, Gomes and Taveras should be on any given MLB team, unless winning isn't something that is a goal for that particular team. Personally, I would pick Gomes to play against LHP only. Send the others packing.

Bum

I'm all for Dorn, Heisey, Dickerson, et al, but I can't agree with the assessment of Nix. To start with, I think he's played a very solid left field this year. I've seen maybe one or two poor games, and beyond that he's been pretty impeccable.

Now, about that platoon. Gomes and Nix have not strictly platooned in LF this year. Some of their starts have been in RF, and they've occasionally been in the lineup together. Nevertheless, their combined plate appearances are about 40 short of the average for the LF position in the NL.

Between them, they've hit 29 HR. The high mark for the LF position in the NL right now is 29, by the Phillies. So it's reasonable to say that a platoon of Gomes and Nix has (or more accurately, would have) provided the Reds with as much power as any LF combination in the league. Actually, if you extrapolate the extra 40 PA, they'd be about two homers ahead of the Phillies. Their combined OPS would be in the 4-5 range. And that's with a good many of Gomes' at-bats coming against righthanders.

Just sayin'.

[Bumstead]

Well, I will disagree with you about the defense and I will move on with that. If you want to rely on 2 5th OF's in LF, that's up to you. I suggest the Reds move on before reality sets in. Of course if the Reds are going to suck next year anyway, one could argue going with 2 5th OF's in LF...or we could go with players that might actually have a future on the team...

just sayin'

[11larkin11]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Well, I will disagree with you about the defense and I will move on with that. If you want to rely on 2 5th OF's in LF, that's up to you. I suggest the Reds move on before reality sets in. Of course if the Reds are going to suck next year anyway, one could argue going with 2 5th OF's in LF...or we could go with players that might actually have a future on the team...

just sayin'

Look at Jonny Gomes stat's right now and tell me he is a 5th OF.

I'll wait.

[Bumstead]

I'm glad you waited...it's more difficult than it should be to find splits these days. Actually this year his splits are better than in the past. He's still significantly better vs LHP than RHP. But it's only 132 AB's vs RHP this year which is pretty small. I think if you look at his career, it would show that he is bad against RHP. I still think he is a 5th OF that should only play against LHP. There, I said it. Then again, I said the Reds should keep him and dump the other guys. He's been better than I thought he would be this year but I think you have to look at more than 132 AB's to reasonably tell what is going to happen down the road (he isn't young but he isn't old either). I don't see him getting better and I don't know how anyone would predict that he would get better.

Bum

[camisadelgolf]

Check his career numbers if you don't believe me--even if you don't platoon Gomes, he will OPS better than an average corner outfielder. That production warrants more playing time than as a fifth outfielder on any club. However, if the manager is smart enough to know when to play him, he produces as well as almost anyone. I'm not advocating making Gomes the starting left fielder of the future, but any team should be glad to have him on the bench.

[Bumstead]

If he OPS' better than the average STARTING corner OF in the future it will in all likelihood be because he 1) gets limited AB's or 2) because he crushes LHP. Below are his year-to-year number vs RHP (this is not league average at all):

2009 - 132 AB .242 average .855 OPS
2008 - 55 AB .182 average .595 OPS
2007 - 252 AB .218 average .731 OPS
2006 - 284 AB .187 average .648 OPS
2005 - 244 AB .279 average .914 OPS

I went back to 2005 because that is how long it has been since he was previously effective against RHP. That being said, I said the Reds should keep him and discard Taveras and Nix. I still think he is useful as a 5th OF. He defense is suspect which limits him to mostly LF. Dickerson would be a perfect complement to him in LF and as the 4th OF or the CF in 2010. Gomes is not a full-time player and should not get more AB's next year than he got this year. He is useful as a 5th OF though, especially against LHP.

Bum

[Scrap Irony]

Back to Dorn: Defense is average to slightly above, from what I have seen, in LF. He is slow, but not any slower than most out there. His arm is okay, but his instincts are good both on routes taken and setting up for throws. Fundamentals are a strength.

[GOYA]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Lefties will get the bulk of the PT, and Dorn does not profile as a guy who should be out there 80% of the time, in my opinion. Bat appears OK, but nothing exceptional even in AAA, defense and speed below average. Guy's a 5th OF, LH pinch hitter at best, IMO.

Dorn started the year in AAA poorly. Since June 1, he's put up these numbers:

.330/.393/.528 - OPS of .921

[lollipopcurve]

Dorn started the year in AAA poorly. Since June 1, he's put up these numbers:

.330/.393/.528 - OPS of .921

Excellent numbers. I may be underestimating him. But, he's also spent a lot of the time on the bench -- and I guess he's been hurt, too, which has become something of a pattern with him, going back to his college days. Couple red flags there -- his platoon status in AAA and questionable health. Compared to Laynce Nix, who can play all 3 OF spots (and RF and LF well, IMO), I have a hard time seeing what Dorn brings to the table as a viable outfielder off the bench.