Jose Reyes Should Be Traded: Stark

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Don't you build around a guy like Jose Reyes, too?

Yeah, if you already have him.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by jojo

Reyes has been a 5.5 WAR/year player in the three years prior to this season's injury (ended by severely torn hamstring that looks to need surgery). That's an elite player at an elite position as an average major league player is worth about half that a year.

Reyes is owed roughly $20M over the next two years assuming his option year is picked up. Assuming his hammy doesn't reduce his production going forward, he'd be expected to produce 10 WAR over that period. On the open market, that would be worth about $45M.

So two years of Reyes might be expected to yield 10 WAR and $25M surplus value. That of course is huge.

Also, the majority of his worth has been derived from his bat (he's grades as something like a neutral to +5 defender) so a move from NY to GABP might be expected to increase his counting stats. That said, the hammy has got to impact his defense at least a bit.

The Reds would have to give up an awful lot-especially since the Mets would argue that a salary for salary exchange certainly is not appropriate given the surplus value that would be going the Reds way. They'll want blue chippers (i.e. no Arroyo).

Votto/Phillips/Cueto/Alonzo/Bruce would all be names that would be talked about I'm sure.

At absolute very least, you'd probably have to start with Alonso, Arroyo or Harang and a prospect. But any of those names might even require higher-quality substitutions.

[Chip R]

If they threw Javy in with Reyes, I'd give them whatever they wanted.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Don't you build around a guy like Jose Reyes, too?

If you have him for more than only 2 years sure. But, if he stays healthy, the Reds won't be able to afford his next contract.

[jojo]

Hardy could probably be had for quality minor leaguers and taking on some salary especially since the Brewers are pushing him out the door.

Reyes would likely take significant parts of the 25 man roster as the Mets don't strike me as a patient team. If that's true, one has to subtract the advantage associated with the guy (s) going the other way from the upgrade represented by Reyes.

Since he's likely a two year guy, it doesn't make a ton of sense to me to pounce on him if he ultimately only upgrades the roster by two wins or less.

The Reds need to add as much WAR (wins above replacement) to their 25 man roster as possible while minimizing the WAR going out the door.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

If you have him for more than only 2 years sure. But, if he stays healthy, the Reds won't be able to afford his next contract.

At that point, they could theoretically trade Reyes for someone else to build around (ideally a catcher). What if Yonder Alonso becomes the type of player you build around? You'd need to deal either he or Joey Votto anyway, and Votto is going to potentially be too expensive in 2011 when he's getting a significant pay raise.

[Screwball]

I agree with jojo. Hardy is the guy they should be looking at. Reyes would be too expensive (and I'm not talking $$).

[lollipopcurve]

The hamstring issue with Reyes is significant. The risk of reinjury is probably high (Freel and Griffey had chronic hamstring problems, to cite two examples). For a guy who uses explosive speed a lot (he attempts lots of steals), Reyes is probably at higher risk for reinjury than most.

Health is a major factor in this case. Any team trying to deal for Reyes will have that as leverage, alongside the fact he's a short-timer. I think the Mets will have a hard time getting a ton of service time in return for him, especially in that players who bring that are also cheap, while Reyes is pretty costly. I just don't see the Mets getting equal value for the guy, if you're looking at him being as productive as he has been.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Screwball

I agree with jojo. Hardy is the guy they should be looking at. Reyes would be too expensive (and I'm not talking $$).

This is my feeling. I think we have chips, but I continue to say I'm not interested in asking trading partners to back up their truck and load 'em up.

[bucksfan2]

There is something about Reyes that I don't like. He disappeared during the NYM's collapse at the end of the last two regular seasons. He has rifts with many of his English speaking team mates. And doesn't seem like the stand up ball player that David Wright is. Im not too worried about his hammy, and he hasn't shown any signs of being injury prone during his career.

To be honest, If I am committing long term to one player from outside of this organization, its Matt Holliday. Reyes is a nice player, but he seems a little too diva for me, as well as the city of Cincinnati.

[Brutus]

I'll third the Hardy notion. He's a no-brainer option for the Reds right now. He's within the realm of their financial resources. He would be under the club's control for the next two years. And lastly, he would not cost the Reds an arm and a leg to acquire.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

There is something about Reyes that I don't like. He disappeared during the NYM's collapse at the end of the last two regular seasons. He has rifts with many of his English speaking team mates. And doesn't seem like the stand up ball player that David Wright is. Im not too worried about his hammy, and he hasn't shown any signs of being injury prone during his career.

To be honest, If I am committing long term to one player from outside of this organization, its Matt Holliday. Reyes is a nice player, but he seems a little too diva for me, as well as the city of Cincinnati.

Holliday is definitely scoffing at the idea he's a Coors Field mirage. The dude is mashing.

[15fan]

Originally Posted by NJReds

I've heard rumblings here that they may look to deal Beltran, too.

I think that's where you look.

Good OF glove, 100+ RBI machine.

Put him in the lineup with Bruce, Votto, Rolen and Phillips and I think you're going somewhere.

By merely taking on the salary over the next 2 years, you might not have to give up two arms and a leg to get him.

As for the no trade clause, you sell him on the kind of numbers that he'll put up playing 81 games a year in Cincinnati, and plenty more in places like Wrigley and Pittsburgh. Those numbers help him either secure one last decent contract and/or make him attractive to a contender when he's a FA.

[lollipopcurve]

Beltran is due to make 18 million each of the next 2 years. He has a fracture in his knee. Pass.

[NJReds]

Originally Posted by 15fan

I think that's where you look.

Good OF glove, 100+ RBI machine.

Put him in the lineup with Bruce, Votto, Rolen and Phillips and I think you're going somewhere.

By merely taking on the salary over the next 2 years, you might not have to give up two arms and a leg to get him.

As for the no trade clause, you sell him on the kind of numbers that he'll put up playing 81 games a year in Cincinnati, and plenty more in places like Wrigley and Pittsburgh. Those numbers help him either secure one last decent contract and/or make him attractive to a contender when he's a FA.

The only thing looming here is potential microfracture surgery on his knee. Although he's been playing in A ball for a late season comeback. Some think it's a showcase to prove he's healthy going into the offseason.

The Mets have a lot of issues right now. The Wilpons, who own the team, lost in the neighborhood of $350-$700M in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme (it's been reported, not confirmed). To the point where the speculation is anywhere from a huge reduction in payroll, to possibly selling the team.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Mets.