Drew Stubbs

[nate]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

I agree. The first thing I want to see from him is to learn to lay off the unhittable curveballs out of the strike zone. This alone will raise his OBP. The idealistic goal is to learn to actually hit a curveball but that is a skill that many players never learn.

I'm glad that we can finally put to bed his "no power" stick. He has proven that he does "have pop" in his bat

I'd be down with him laying off all unhittable pitches out of the strike zone!



I'd like to see him keep slugging at his current clip.

One thing's for sure, that dude is FAST.

[TRF]

I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Let me repeat that.

The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.

[lollipopcurve]

he hasn't proven that he has power.

You are in denial.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by TRF

And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Let me repeat that.

The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.

Have you seen the ball jump off his bat? Have you witnessed very good bat speed? Those are things I use to judge a guy's power. In fact every game you get watch Stubbs and Janish right after one another. Janish's bat does not possess the speed that Stubbs' does nor does the ball "jump" off his bat like it does w/ Stubbs. I don't have to look at any minor league stats to see that Stubbs has pop in his bat. Whereas I do not look for Janish to ever develop power. He just doesn't have the bat speed.

To what do you attribute his MLB power numbers?

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Let me repeat that.

The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.

A CF that posts an OPS north of .800 with an average or better than average glove is getting into elite territory. Not too many of those guys exist.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

If you can guarantee me a full season of .760 or better OPS and continued plus defense (possibly gold glove level) in CF, he can play until his legs fall off as far as I'm concerned.

As far as OBP / SLG splits go -- he'll start seeing less grooved fastballs in his hitting zones once pitchers have video to watch and charts/tendencies to read. Stubbs has always shown good pitch recognition ability in the minors. I expect the HRs to level off, but the OBP to rise as he gets more balls from pitchers and fewer pitches in his hitting zones.

This is all I care about when it comes to Stubbs "power". I don't care if he hits 5-10-15 or 20 homers a year, that will all be a bonus. But he has shown that if you grove a pitch, he will punish you for it. This might be the limit of his power, but it is enough for him to be a successful MLB hitter.

That is essential for every major league hitter. As Caveat pointed out, once a hitter proves his has this ability, pitchers are more careful with him. This may lead to a decrease in power, but it will lead to an increase in walks and singles if the hitter has good plate discipline, and thus higher OBP. Players like Taveras, Castro and Janish have shown how difficult it is to hit over a full season without this power.

In the minors, Stubbs' numbers did not reveal this power, although people who saw him said he had it. That is why I am very encouraged by this show of power at the MLB level. It validates what the scouts were saying, that the stats were not. This was the one issue that I had with Stubbs, and am glad to see that it is not much of an issue.

Now Stubbs may not ever develop the plate discipline needed to be that solid MLB hitter, but it is nice to see that if he does develop it, he has the power to become one.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

A CF that posts an OPS north of .800 with an average or better than average glove is getting into elite territory. Not too many of those guys exist.

And I for one am sick of the dreck that has been run out there.

The Reds had Mike Cameron once. I want another one.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Let me repeat that.

The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.

Certainly well within your rights to hold those opinions.

I sort of think, though, that expecting someone to carry an OPS north of 800 at that position is unrealistic. At least, if it's not unrealistic it's somewhat unfair.

This is a position, where the starters in aggregate, are averaging 340/430/770 as splits this year. Only 9 of 30 starters are carrying OPS over 800 and only three have OPS's over 850.

TEAM	NAME 		        OPS
NYM	Carlos Beltran		0.945
LAA	Torii Hunter		0.926
LAD	Matt Kemp		0.865
ATL	Nate McLouth		0.826
PHI	Shane Victorino		0.820
OAK	Rajai Davis		0.808
MIL	Mike Cameron		0.801
PIT	Andrew McCutchen	0.801
TEX	Marlon Byrd		0.800
BAL	Adam Jones		0.792
DET	Curtis Granderson	0.792
CHN	Kosuke Fukudome		0.791
CLE	Grady Sizemore		0.788
COL	Dexter Fowler		0.782
HOU	Michael Bourn		0.765
BOS	Jacoby Ellsbury		0.764
CHA	Scott Podsednik		0.764
NYY	Melky Cabrera		0.763
CIN	Drew Stubbs		0.758
WAS	Nyjer Morgan		0.757
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.751
SF	Aaron Rowand		0.750
STL	Colby Rasmus		0.733
TOR	Vernon Wells		0.724
ARI	Chris Young		0.707
KC	Mitch Maier		0.696
SD	Tony Gwynn Jr.		0.670
TB	B.J. Upton		0.667
FLA	Cameron Maybin		0.660
MIN	Carlos Gomez		0.639

[lollipopcurve]

The Reds had Mike Cameron once. I want another one.

Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.

Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

This is all I care about when it comes to Stubbs "power". I don't care if he hits 5-10-15 or 20 homers a year, that will all be a bonus. But he has shown that if you grove a pitch, he will punish you for it. This might be the limit of his power, but it is enough for him to be a successful MLB hitter.

That is essential for every major league hitter. As Caveat pointed out, once a hitter proves his has this ability, pitchers are more careful with him. This may lead to a decrease in power, but it will lead to an increase in walks and singles if the hitter has good plate discipline, and thus higher OBP. Players like Taveras, Castro and Janish have difficult it is to hit over a full season without this power.

In the minors, Stubbs' numbers did not reveal this power, although people who saw him said he had it. That is why I am very encouraged by this show of power at the MLB level. It validates what the scouts were saying, that the stats were not. This was the one issue that I had with Stubbs, and am glad to see that it is not much of an issue.

Now Stubbs may not ever develop the plate discipline needed to be that solid MLB hitter, but it is nice to see that if he does develop it, he has the power to become one.

This power he is displaying does not show he has power as a hitter. It means he is on a hot streak. I don't see the doubles (7HR to 2 doubles is an odd ratio) I don't see the skill on the basepaths. I see the speed, just not the SB prowess.

See, pitchers at every, EVERY level figured Stubbs out. It's possible that veteran MLB pitchers have too little respect for him. And he's done a decent job of jerking one out, but it doesn't pass the sniff test that AA/AAA/AFL pitchers OWNED him while MLB pitchers are getting a neck strain.

One of these seasons is not like the others.

That said, his progression as a hitter could have continued under Jacoby. After all look at how many other Reds hitters have thrived under him.

wait...

[TRF]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.

Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?

16 sucked. 22 was ok though...

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Certainly well within your rights to hold those opinions.

I sort of think, though, that expecting someone to carry an OPS north of 800 at that position is unrealistic. At least, if it's not unrealistic it's somewhat unfair.

This is a position, where the starters in aggregate, are averaging 340/430/770 as splits this year. Only 9 of 30 starters are carrying OPS over 800 and only three have OPS's over 850.

TEAM	NAME 		        OPS
NYM	Carlos Beltran		0.945
LAA	Torii Hunter		0.926
LAD	Matt Kemp		0.865
ATL	Nate McLouth		0.826
PHI	Shane Victorino		0.820
OAK	Rajai Davis		0.808
MIL	Mike Cameron		0.801
PIT	Andrew McCutchen	0.801
TEX	Marlon Byrd		0.800
BAL	Adam Jones		0.792
DET	Curtis Granderson	0.792
CHN	Kosuke Fukudome		0.791
CLE	Grady Sizemore		0.788
COL	Dexter Fowler		0.782
HOU	Michael Bourn		0.765
BOS	Jacoby Ellsbury		0.764
CHA	Scott Podsednik		0.764
NYY	Melky Cabrera		0.763
CIN	Drew Stubbs		0.758
WAS	Nyjer Morgan		0.757
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.751
SF	Aaron Rowand		0.750
STL	Colby Rasmus		0.733
TOR	Vernon Wells		0.724
ARI	Chris Young		0.707
KC	Mitch Maier		0.696
SD	Tony Gwynn Jr.		0.670
TB	B.J. Upton		0.667
FLA	Cameron Maybin		0.660
MIN	Carlos Gomez		0.639

hmm you left out a few things. Like this is a down year for sizemore who has a career .851 OPS, Granderson with a career .832. Jones and Fukudome are in just their second full seasons and both improved dramatically at the plate. Throw in BJ Upton, who is in a weird downward spiral, but is still younger than Stubbs and has an .894 OPS season under his belt. That's a number Stubbs will likely never even sniff.

9 guys over .800, five within spitting distance, and all five are likely to hit over .800 multiple times when their careers are over.

Almost half of the regular CF's

I want the Reds in that half. that's where we ALL should want the Reds and it isn't unrealistic.

So that's 14, 15 if you count Upton, which I do, with .800 OPS potential

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by TRF

hmm you left out a few things. Like this is a down year for sizemore who has a career .851 OPS, Granderson with a career .832. Jones and Fukudome are in just their second full seasons and both improved dramatically at the plate. Throw in BJ Upton, who is in a weird downward spiral, but is still younger than Stubbs and has an .894 OPS season under his belt. That's a number Stubbs will likely never even sniff.

9 guys over .800, five within spitting distance, and all five are likely to hit over .800 multiple times when their careers are over.

Almost half of the regular CF's

I want the Reds in that half. that's where we ALL should want the Reds and it isn't unrealistic.

So that's 14, 15 if you count Upton, which I do, with .800 OPS potential

I didn't really leave anything out. Because if we play that game, you could argue many of those guys would also not consistently carry 800 that are over it. In any given year, you're going to find that these numbers are pretty consistent with the bulk of starting Major League centerfielders.

A lot of guys have 800 OPS "potential." But having that potential and actually doing it on an annual basis are two very different things.

An 800 OPS for this position really is an exception more than a rule.

I would love to see Stubbs be a perennial 800 OPS CF. It's certainly not a bad goal to have for him. I just think goals and expectations are two different things. I want him to do that, I just don't feel it's proper to expect it. For purpose of expectation, 760-800 would be more than plenty to make him extremely valuable with his glove. If he does exceed that, it's gravy.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by TRF

This power he is displaying does not show he has power as a hitter. It means he is on a hot streak. I don't see the doubles (7HR to 2 doubles is an odd ratio) I don't see the skill on the basepaths. I see the speed, just not the SB prowess.

See, pitchers at every, EVERY level figured Stubbs out. It's possible that veteran MLB pitchers have too little respect for him. And he's done a decent job of jerking one out, but it doesn't pass the sniff test that AA/AAA/AFL pitchers OWNED him while MLB pitchers are getting a neck strain.

One of these seasons is not like the others.

That said, his progression as a hitter could have continued under Jacoby. After all look at how many other Reds hitters have thrived under him.

wait...

I understand your skepticism. His minor league numbers don't show much power. It's funny you mention his lack of doubles because my thinking is that his HRs will drop off but his doubles/triples will increase.

He has the skills to hit for power if not the numbers. Guys like Pete Rose and Ichiro have power skills but not the power numbers. At this point that's all I'm looking at.

[traderumor]

I'm gonna need at least 4,000 big league ab's before I can make any accurate projections.