The Official 'Who Do We Protect from the Rule Five Draft?' Thread

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by mth123

I guess the rub here is that I don't see any higher potential kids that Wells would be bumping off the roster. Lecure? Watson? Sore armed Thompson? Dead-wing Dallas Buck? Wells month in Cincy counts for more than any of those guys have done in their minor league career. He's not going to be bumping Wood, Ondrusek, Viola, Ramirez or even Maloney, but I'd keep him over those other guys.

I agree that the GM should be working out a deal similar to the one they signed with Corey Patterson where Wells signs a minor league deal to create a spot but is promised a higher major league salary should he win a spot. But the Reds would probably end up paying more in that scenario than just keeping him on the 40 and negotiating with him. Not sure its worth it to a cash strapped team to bump the pay a little just to protect some of these "ham and eggers" everyone is worried about.

22 Pitchers
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Ramon Ramirez
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Nick Masset
Logan Ondrusek
Bill Bray
Danny Rae Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Micah Owings
Arthur Lee Rhodes
Matt Maloney
Enerio Del Rosario
Travis Wood
Pedro Viola
Phil Valiquette
Jordan Smith
Kip Wells

2 Catchers
Ryan Hanigan
Chris Denove

8 IF
Chris Valaika
Adam Rosales
Drew Sutton
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Yonder Alonso
Paul Janish

8 OF
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Drew Stubbs
Wladimir Balentien
Danny Dorn
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Johnny Gomes


This would mean that the Reds would DFA Taveras, Lincoln, Nix, Richar, Castillo, McDonald, Lecure, Miller, Thompson, Tatum, Lehr and Barker. While leaving Watson, Medina, Lutz and Henry unprotected. I'm guessing they won't do that. It would also leave Kris Negron unprotected and they may want to protect him since he was just acquired for Gonzalez. It would also not consider whoever is acquired in the Weathers deal. My next two drops would be difficult, but I'd consider dropping Bray and Viola. Maybe Dorn if he isn't going to get a shot. I'm sure the Reds list will look a lot different than mine.

This one time where to me the ? would be worth more than very low quality career journeyman. Theres ALWAYS guys Wells out there and the team needs to be proactive rather than allowing a couple months of "league average" starts blind them. At Wells point in his career you dont magically get better. He's got a 4.84 ERA this year very easily return to his career norms which since 2004 has been well over 5. I just dont see value in that when we could possibly save a live arm. If he is willing to sign for 2010 on an MLC with an invite to spring training fine (you open up the spot by putting Volquez on the 60 day dl).

[HokieRed]

If there were always guys like Wells out there, you'd think we'd have had a better succession of starters in Cinti. over the past many years, particularly in the Number 5 spot. He is, IMO, easily the best in-house option available--even if he does no better than his lifetime averages--for the 5th starter spot. It's worth remembering that he was once--2002, 03--a whole lot better than a league average pitcher, something it's hard to imagine Owings or Maloney will ever be. I wish I remembered Wells' injury history better; it may be that he is putting things back together. If we can run him through the minor league contract bit, I'd be all for that. But I doubt we'll have that option. He's pitched himself onto somebody's major league roster for 2010.

[redsof72]

Look at it this way: They are not going to DFA a guy if they think he is one of their five best starters. Right now for 2010 you have Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey. The fifth spot would be a battle between Wells, Maloney, Lehr, Owings, and maybe Wood, although I suspect that if they wanted Wood in that battle, they would have called him up when the Bats season ended to get a look. Of the other four, Owings is currently in the bullpen, Maloney and Lehr are getting spot starts (partly due to injury) and they are giving the ball to Wells every fifth day and he's doing pretty darn well so far. I see the same thing you folks do when I look at Wells' numbers over the last five years, but I doubt if Dusty really cares about that. He sees what he sees. WJ has to make some decisions. I know this much: no team would release a starting pitcher if they thought he was one of their five best starters. And yes, there are plenty of similarities to Jimmy Haines, Jimmy Anderson, etc. That is why Walt makes the big bucks. He has to make the best decision and he will have plenty of people in his ear and they won't all be singing the same song. Fifth starters who can be anything better than a complete disaster are hard to find for small market teams, lets face it.

[HokieRed]

There's actually some very important dissimilarity between Wells and Haynes or Anderson, and that has to do with their best years, their ceiling (which maybe Wells might just get back to.) Anderson in his best year (2001) had a 5.10 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP. Haynes in his best, 2002 with us, a 4.12 and 1.48. Wells in 2002 had a 3.58 and a 1.35 WHIP, in 2003 a 3.28 and a 1.25 WHIP. These were over 198 and 197 innings. These best two years actually are a little better than Arroyo's best two, depending on how he finishes this one, as this is his second best campaign statistically.

[UKFlounder]

Just because they think he's one of the 5 best starters right now does not mean they think he'll still be that for next season, Protecting guys on the 40 man roster is not simply a matter of current performance, but also how the organization feels about their future.

I see no reason to protect Wells just because he may be their 5th best starter right now.If they feel younger guys may develop, plan to acquire other starters in the offseason, or feel that Wells or a similar guy will be available just like he was this year, it would be a pretty easy decision not to protect him.

[redsof72]

UKFlounder, I don't know if they will protect Wells or not and I am not suggesting they will without more information that I don't have access to. But I can't really agree with your logic.

Lets look at Wells. He was a decent starting pitcher with pretty good stuff at one time, but has not been worth a darn for five years. This year, for whatever reason, he has provided some reason for optimism. If you look at Wells' starts, he has been pretty good, especially after the first inning. If you got Dick Pole to speak off the record, you could ask him, "has this guy's stuff returned to where it was five years ago, or is he just throwing slop up there and getting lucky?" The answer to that question would go a long way towards the final decision. I am sure Pole has an opinion.

Second, as far as acquiring other starters, doubtful it happens before the decision on the 40-man has to be made around the first of December.

As far as feeling that younger guys will develop, I don't know. Who? If you were planning on having a young guy in your rotation in April of 2010, wouldn't you be getting a look at him now? Why would you be giving Wells a start every fifth day? That's my point with Travis Wood. Granted again, Maloney has been limited by a blister. But that's it. Why do you think they are giving Wells starts? Or 32-year-old Justin Lehr? If they don't have anyone better now, why do you think they would assume they would have someone better in April? And Wells is 32, not 36 or 37.

As I said in my last post, fifth starters for a small market team are not easy to find. Wells is a cheap option. The Reds gave the combination of Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle 20 starts in 2008 and both had ERAs over 7.00. I would have to think that the odds are stacked against Wells ever becoming a decent starter again. They will have to make that decision based on what they are seeing with his velocity, movement, location, and durability, not necessarily the stats. But he has done enough to at least raise the question.

[lollipopcurve]

Wells has 8-9 years in the majors, so he can be a free agent. Unless the Reds sign him during their exclusive negotiating window, he won't be on the 40-man -- he'll file for free agency.

[camisadelgolf]

Wells was with the team to eat innings and keep the younger arms fresh. He may have a couple of solid years as a reliever in him, but his career is winding down, and I think it's pretty obvious that the Reds won't keep him around unless it's on a minor league contract.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Wells has 8-9 years in the majors, so he can be a free agent. Unless the Reds sign him during their exclusive negotiating window, he won't be on the 40-man -- he'll file for free agency.

If that is the case, and I have no reason to doubt it, the Reds would retain Wells on the 40 only if they were prepared to make him a serious offer. I doubt that is the case.

As for candidates for the fifth starter spot, in addition to Owings and Maloney I would add Masset and Ramirez. I think many of us wrote Masset off after he was the first starter candidate eliminated last spring. He responded to being sent to the pen with a fine year that showed much improvement. H/9 and WHIP down and K/9 up. I may have seen a small sample, but it seems to me that his velocity was up as well.

I like having Ramirez and Owings on the 25 because either can make a spot start if needed.

I am not sold on keeping Burton, especially if he is arbitration eligible. His numbers have been going down at a point in his career when he should be improving. Nor am I sold on keeping Bray. He might come out of surgery a better pitcher, but it is a gamble. I would prefer keeping LeCure and Watson. Watson is wild, but has good upside.

[HokieRed]

I suspect we will see this year's 40 man roster put together with the idea that its primary purpose is to assemble the best major league baseball team for 2010 and not to avoid losing one or another marginal prospect in the Rule 5 draft.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Wells has 8-9 years in the majors, so he can be a free agent. Unless the Reds sign him during their exclusive negotiating window, he won't be on the 40-man -- he'll file for free agency.

This is a solid point and one I thought of. Wells has pitched well enough that he may be inclined to test the waters. But if the Reds are doing what is best for the reds (and the money is not too much) I'd rather have Wells on the 40 man than worrying about protecting Sam Lecure, Wilkin Castillo or Sean Watson. Its not Wood, Maloney or Ondrusek he'd be pushing off the roster, its some one who has already flamed out in the minors.

[camisadelgolf]

Baseball is a business. Which player has more value: Sam LeCure or Kip Wells? I'd be willing to bet that it's Sam LeCure. There is a long list of players who could replace Wells without missing a beat, so if they're going to let LeCure go, they should trade him before the rule five draft takes place so it frees up a roster spot and gains them a player with a Major League future instead of just $50,000-$100,000.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Baseball is a business. Which player has more value: Sam LeCure or Kip Wells? I'd be willing to bet that it's Sam LeCure. There is a long list of players who could replace Wells without missing a beat, so if they're going to let LeCure go, they should trade him before the rule five draft takes place so it frees up a roster spot and gains them a player with a Major League future instead of just $50,000-$100,000.

The player they could get for Lecure may be worth less than $50,000.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by mth123

This is a solid point and one I thought of. Wells has pitched well enough that he may be inclined to test the waters. But if the Reds are doing what is best for the reds (and the money is not too much) I'd rather have Wells on the 40 man than worrying about protecting Sam Lecure, Wilkin Castillo or Sean Watson. Its not Wood, Maloney or Ondrusek he'd be pushing off the roster, its some one who has already flamed out in the minors.

I would balk at calling Watson and LeCure flameouts. I don't think the Reds would have sent Watson to the AFL this year if they held that belief. LeCure is 25 with a career ERA of 3.79 and W-L of 39-33. His H/9 is 8.8 and K/9 is 7.9. He has had a tendency to struggle at each new level, then figure it out.

After having good years for Pittsburgh in 2002-3, Wells has been ineffective. Since then his ML stats are 24W - 54L and an ERA of 5.31. Incidentally, that is close to what he has this year. Yes, he did pitch well at Louisville, but that is not hard to understand for a pitcher with considerable ML experience facing younger players.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

I would balk at calling Watson and LeCure flameouts. I don't think the Reds would have sent Watson to the AFL this year if they held that belief. LeCure is 25 with a career ERA of 3.79 and W-L of 39-33. His H/9 is 8.8 and K/9 is 7.9. He has had a tendency to struggle at each new level, then figure it out.

After having good years for Pittsburgh in 2002-3, Wells has been ineffective. Since then his ML stats are 24W - 54L and an ERA of 5.31. Incidentally, that is close to what he has this year. Yes, he did pitch well at Louisville, but that is not hard to understand for a pitcher with considerable ML experience facing younger players.

He's clearly pitched better than all the 5th starter candidates since his call-up. Maloney has pitched better lately so the Reds may go that route, but I really don't want to see Maloney and Bailey both in the rotation. I'd rather have a vet in there while Bailey establishes himself.