Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

fearofpopvol1 · 10-05-2009, 01:42 AM

I am hoping now that the season is over and we have some data on the kid that we can discuss him in a civil and respectful manner.

The final line is...

Code:

G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS  OBP  SLG  AVG 
42 180 27 48 5   1   8   17   79  15  49  10   4  .323 .439 .267

.762 is his closing OPS in 180 ABs. You have to consider, these are rookie ABs too. The question most people want to know though is the power legit. And can he increase OBP some? Because .323 is a little on the low side, especially if he doesn't hit for a lot of power. The defense, I think most people would agree, is as advertised.

Is Stubbs' job good enough for him to be annointed the starting CF next year for the Reds? And I don't mean over WT, because clearly most people think he's an upgrade over WT. Projecting forward, are his skills good enough where you say, "CF is not an area we should be looking to upgrade."

dougdirt · 10-05-2009, 02:00 AM

Stubbs had a rough go around in August as far as the K/BB rate goes and it hurt his OBP big time. He made some real strong adjustments in Sept/Aug.

Code:

Split  	  PA  	H   BB  SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	BB%	K%	K/BB
August 	  64	15  3	20	.246	.281	.426	.707	4.7%	31.3%	6.7
Sept/Oct 132	33  12	29	.277	.344	.445	.789	9.1%	22.0%	2.4

I do think the power is legit enough. I don't think he is a 30 HR guy in a full season, but I do think he is a 15-20 HR guy in a full season. So long as his plate approach is like the Sept/October Drew Stubbs, he is absolutely 100% a guy we should love to have in CF in 2010. Certainly you should always be trying to make improvements and if you can do so, you should. With that said, I don't think we should be out actively trying to grab a center fielder either.

*BaseClogger* · 10-05-2009, 02:06 AM

Where have you gone, Chris Dickerson? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you...

TheNext44 · 10-05-2009, 03:09 AM

I actually think that the best move is to trade Stubbs in the offseason. I think he's legit, and will be an above average CF for years to come,

however...

He may not, and his ceiling is not so high that if he reached it the Reds would regret trading him, as long as they got a good return for him.

I think Chris Dickerson can play league average CF in 2010, if healthy, and I think with the numbers Stubbs put up, he could be the centerpiece of a deal that gets the Reds a real 4-5 win player, being it a SP, SS or LF, which is something that the Reds could really use.

Just for one example, Stubbs, Gomes, Francisco and Wood for Matt Kemp.

Brutus · 10-05-2009, 03:15 AM

I am not ready to anoint Drew Stubbs as the answer in center, but I'm definitely ready to say he's an answer out there.

His power (3.9% HR) wound up closer to a level that people could see going forward, but yet, in regressing as the last few weeks went on, saw his overall offensive production remain steady thanks to increased walks, fewer strikeouts and utilizing his speed to beat out a ton of hits that would ordinarily be outs with most players. Those overall rates in isolation, ignoring defense, make him just a hair about an average Major League CF. Those numbers alone would justify having him out there. Throw in his fielding ability, and you have an above-average player at his position.

Stubbs might come down before he goes back up, but I can't help but be very encouraged at the signs he showed late in the year. If nothing else, it seems even Dusty Baker cannot throw you-know-who out there as a starter instead of Stubbs. I think that was somewhat corroborated by both the remarks Baker made these last two weeks and that despite someone else coming off the DL, Stubbs continued to get almost all of the starts.

Contingent upon merely maintaining these rates, I absolutely think Stubbs is the Reds' best option for next year. I would like to see the OBP continue to climb, but I think it will.

lollipopcurve · 10-05-2009, 07:17 AM

Put it this way -- you can't count on Dickerson because of his health history.

Stubbs' performance exceeded my expectations by a quite a bit. A .762 OPS in his first 200 PAs with, as Doug shows, a nice upward trend in OBP, has to be considered promising. The defense looked very good and his baserunning looked solid. I really don't know what more you'd want out of a rookie. I'd say it's Stubbs' position to lose.

nate · 10-05-2009, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I am hoping now that the season is over and we have some data on the kid that we can discuss him in a civil and respectful manner.

Hope springs eternal!

Quote:

The final line is...

Code:

G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS  OBP  SLG  AVG 
42 180 27 48 5   1   8   17   79  15  49  10   4  .323 .439 .267

.762 is his closing OPS in 180 ABs. You have to consider, these are rookie ABs too. The question most people want to know though is the power legit. And can he increase OBP some? Because .323 is a little on the low side, especially if he doesn't hit for a lot of power. The defense, I think most people would agree, is as advertised.

Is Stubbs' job good enough for him to be annointed the starting CF next year for the Reds? And I don't mean over WT, because clearly most people think he's an upgrade over WT. Projecting forward, are his skills good enough where you say, "CF is not an area we should be looking to upgrade."

Based on what I've seen, he has to have the upper hand. His defense is top-notch and he may be the fastest player I've seen in a long time. Devon White, indeed. Can he maintain that .760-ish OPS? That's the biggest question. I think his level of performance may influence Walt to investigate other areas of need in the offseason.

SMcGavin · 10-05-2009, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I think Chris Dickerson can play league average CF in 2010, if healthy, and I think with the numbers Stubbs put up, he could be the centerpiece of a deal that gets the Reds a real 4-5 win player, being it a SP, SS or LF, which is something that the Reds could really use.

Agreed. IMO, of the guys the Reds can afford to lose, Stubbs is the one with the best chance of bringing back some serious help for 2010.

Highlifeman21 · 10-05-2009, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Where have you gone, Chris Dickerson? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you...

Still on the DL? Or in The Dusty's doghouse?

Highlifeman21 · 10-05-2009, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I am hoping now that the season is over and we have some data on the kid that we can discuss him in a civil and respectful manner.

The final line is...

Code:

G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS  OBP  SLG  AVG 
42 180 27 48 5   1   8   17   79  15  49  10   4  .323 .439 .267

.762 is his closing OPS in 180 ABs. You have to consider, these are rookie ABs too. The question most people want to know though is the power legit. And can he increase OBP some? Because .323 is a little on the low side, especially if he doesn't hit for a lot of power. The defense, I think most people would agree, is as advertised.

Is Stubbs' job good enough for him to be annointed the starting CF next year for the Reds? And I don't mean over WT, because clearly most people think he's an upgrade over WT. Projecting forward, are his skills good enough where you say, "CF is not an area we should be looking to upgrade."

Is the power legit? IMO, no.

Can he increase his OBP? Man I hope so.

Is Stubbs good enough to be the leader in the clubhouse to be the starting CF next year? IMO, no. Chris Dickerson is better and more deserving of that gig, seeing as we'll face more RHP, and Dickerson's a LHB.

Projecting forward, are his skills good enough where you say, "CF is not an area we should be looking to upgrade?" IMO, neither Dickerson nor Stubbs are guys that we can just essentially set it and forget it in the lineup. Surrounded by better talent, sure, then Dickerson and Stubbs are ok shorter term solutions that would have the luxury of getting a longer term look. Only if either one of them consistently get their OBP closer to and or over .400, then they'll give us no reason for concern. Unfortunately these two are the best we've currently got, so we'll have to just go with them for now. Obviously if we're able to upgrade and it makes sense when considering all areas of the them, then you have to do it.

Highlifeman21 · 10-05-2009, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I actually think that the best move is to trade Stubbs in the offseason. I think he's legit, and will be an above average CF for years to come,

however...

He may not, and his ceiling is not so high that if he reached it the Reds would regret trading him, as long as they got a good return for him.

I think Chris Dickerson can play league average CF in 2010, if healthy, and I think with the numbers Stubbs put up, he could be the centerpiece of a deal that gets the Reds a real 4-5 win player, being it a SP, SS or LF, which is something that the Reds could really use.

Just for one example, Stubbs, Gomes, Francisco and Wood for Matt Kemp.

Why would the Dodgers want Gomes or Stubbs if they're essentially only getting Wood for Matt Kemp?

Kemp's way better than Stubbs will ever be, Gomes would be a spare part for them, Francisco would be a project with them, and Wood could still end up being a question mark as a pitching prospect.

Just makes no sense for the Dodgers to do it, however Matt Kemp is a target we should absolutely pursue, and if it costs us to include Stubbs then that's easily a price we have to pay.

buckeyenut · 10-05-2009, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I actually think that the best move is to trade Stubbs in the offseason. I think he's legit, and will be an above average CF for years to come,

however...

He may not, and his ceiling is not so high that if he reached it the Reds would regret trading him, as long as they got a good return for him.

I think Chris Dickerson can play league average CF in 2010, if healthy, and I think with the numbers Stubbs put up, he could be the centerpiece of a deal that gets the Reds a real 4-5 win player, being it a SP, SS or LF, which is something that the Reds could really use.

Just for one example, Stubbs, Gomes, Francisco and Wood for Matt Kemp.

With a very solid rookie campaign and Dickerson/Heisley to cover the position, I love the idea of looking to move Stubbs in the right deal to upgrade another position. He is a very valuable player with Gold Glove defense and a league average or better OPS for his position.

PuffyPig · 10-05-2009, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Surrounded by better talent, sure, then Dickerson and Stubbs are ok shorter term solutions that would have the luxury of getting a longer term look. Only if either one of them consistently get their OBP closer to and or over .400, then they'll give us no reason for concern.

Tough test, looking for a CF who gets his oBA close to and over .400.

12 batters in the majors got to .400 this year, none in CF.

There were two CF's above .375.

Strikes Out Looking · 10-05-2009, 09:13 AM

Unless Walt can figure out a deal for a solid 30 HR/100 RBI LF, I believe the plan is or at least should be Stubbs CF, Bruce RF and Gomes LF with Dickerson as the backup. They may get stuck with Willie T as the 5/6 OF unless they can deal him, but with the budget as it is, I don't think you are going to get any other CF then what is already in the system.

I like Dickerson but he just can't stay healthy, so I wouldn't pencil him in for 500 abs.

Highlifeman21 · 10-05-2009, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Tough test, looking for a CF who gets his oBA close to and over .400.

12 batters in the majors got to .400 this year, none in CF.

There were two CF's above .375.

Maybe I've set a high bar for OBP from both Dickerson and Stubbs, but with both of them being low SLG guys, essentially they become OBP and D guys, who hopefully can steal some bags here and there.

Granted, OBP is one of the only things I care for from a potential leadoff hitter, so that's why I place so much emphasis on the stat.

You're probably right that we'd be able to forget about either Dickerson or Stubbs if they consistently OBP'd .375.

10-05-2009, 01:42 AM	#1
fearofpopvol1 Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: New York, NY Posts: 8,627	Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? I am hoping now that the season is over and we have some data on the kid that we can discuss him in a civil and respectful manner. The final line is... Code: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 42 180 27 48 5 1 8 17 79 15 49 10 4 .323 .439 .267 .762 is his closing OPS in 180 ABs. You have to consider, these are rookie ABs too. The question most people want to know though is the power legit. And can he increase OBP some? Because .323 is a little on the low side, especially if he doesn't hit for a lot of power. The defense, I think most people would agree, is as advertised. Is Stubbs' job good enough for him to be annointed the starting CF next year for the Reds? And I don't mean over WT, because clearly most people think he's an upgrade over WT. Projecting forward, are his skills good enough where you say, "CF is not an area we should be looking to upgrade."

10-05-2009, 02:00 AM	#2
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,690	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? Stubbs had a rough go around in August as far as the K/BB rate goes and it hurt his OBP big time. He made some real strong adjustments in Sept/Aug. Code: Split PA H BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BB% K% K/BB August 64 15 3 20 .246 .281 .426 .707 4.7% 31.3% 6.7 Sept/Oct 132 33 12 29 .277 .344 .445 .789 9.1% 22.0% 2.4 I do think the power is legit enough. I don't think he is a 30 HR guy in a full season, but I do think he is a 15-20 HR guy in a full season. So long as his plate approach is like the Sept/October Drew Stubbs, he is absolutely 100% a guy we should love to have in CF in 2010. Certainly you should always be trying to make improvements and if you can do so, you should. With that said, I don't think we should be out actively trying to grab a center fielder either. __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

10-05-2009, 02:06 AM	#3
BaseClogger WOOOOO!!! Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 6,075	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? Where have you gone, Chris Dickerson? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you... __________________ "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

10-05-2009, 03:09 AM	#4
TheNext44 Socratic Gadfly Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 4,224	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? I actually think that the best move is to trade Stubbs in the offseason. I think he's legit, and will be an above average CF for years to come, however... He may not, and his ceiling is not so high that if he reached it the Reds would regret trading him, as long as they got a good return for him. I think Chris Dickerson can play league average CF in 2010, if healthy, and I think with the numbers Stubbs put up, he could be the centerpiece of a deal that gets the Reds a real 4-5 win player, being it a SP, SS or LF, which is something that the Reds could really use. Just for one example, Stubbs, Gomes, Francisco and Wood for Matt Kemp. __________________ "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

10-05-2009, 03:15 AM	#5
Brutus Et tu, Brutus? Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Atlanta, Ga. Posts: 8,928	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? I am not ready to anoint Drew Stubbs as the answer in center, but I'm definitely ready to say he's an answer out there. His power (3.9% HR) wound up closer to a level that people could see going forward, but yet, in regressing as the last few weeks went on, saw his overall offensive production remain steady thanks to increased walks, fewer strikeouts and utilizing his speed to beat out a ton of hits that would ordinarily be outs with most players. Those overall rates in isolation, ignoring defense, make him just a hair about an average Major League CF. Those numbers alone would justify having him out there. Throw in his fielding ability, and you have an above-average player at his position. Stubbs might come down before he goes back up, but I can't help but be very encouraged at the signs he showed late in the year. If nothing else, it seems even Dusty Baker cannot throw you-know-who out there as a starter instead of Stubbs. I think that was somewhat corroborated by both the remarks Baker made these last two weeks and that despite someone else coming off the DL, Stubbs continued to get almost all of the starts. Contingent upon merely maintaining these rates, I absolutely think Stubbs is the Reds' best option for next year. I would like to see the OBP continue to climb, but I think it will. __________________ "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

10-05-2009, 07:17 AM	#6
lollipopcurve Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Shelburne Falls, MA Posts: 9,479	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? Put it this way -- you can't count on Dickerson because of his health history. Stubbs' performance exceeded my expectations by a quite a bit. A .762 OPS in his first 200 PAs with, as Doug shows, a nice upward trend in OBP, has to be considered promising. The defense looked very good and his baserunning looked solid. I really don't know what more you'd want out of a rookie. I'd say it's Stubbs' position to lose. __________________ "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

10-05-2009, 09:13 AM	#14
Strikes Out Looking Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Maryland Posts: 2,264	Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10? Unless Walt can figure out a deal for a solid 30 HR/100 RBI LF, I believe the plan is or at least should be Stubbs CF, Bruce RF and Gomes LF with Dickerson as the backup. They may get stuck with Willie T as the 5/6 OF unless they can deal him, but with the budget as it is, I don't think you are going to get any other CF then what is already in the system. I like Dickerson but he just can't stay healthy, so I wouldn't pencil him in for 500 abs. __________________ The Future Is Now!

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