Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

[paulrichjr]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Using a very basic RC formula, Stubbs created 25 runs over his 196 PA's. Plug in Taveras' numbers this year, his worse ones, and he would have created 14 runs. They had the same walk rate, so it was pretty easy.

So that means that having Taveras in stead of Stubbs over those 42 games would have cost the Reds just over one win.

This is what I can't grasp when it comes to these kind of stats. I just can't agree that Stubbs vs. Taveras was only 1 win different. When a pitcher sees Stubbs make a catch that Willy would have been running in on then out and then back in again and played it on the bounce it changes much more than 1 game. I just think the whole team plays off of each other and when one is horrible the others start stinking also.

[nate]

Originally Posted by paulrichjr

This is what I can't grasp when it comes to these kind of stats. I just can't agree that Stubbs vs. Taveras was only 1 win different. When a pitcher sees Stubbs make a catch that Willy would have been running in on then out and then back in again and played it on the bounce it changes much more than 1 game. I just think the whole team plays off of each other and when one is horrible the others start stinking also.

Well, to be fair, it was only for roughly 1/3rd-1/4th of the games and only considered offense. Project it out to an entire season and consider defense and the change may be a bit more drastic.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

I can't be the only one thinking that hoping that Stubbs repeats what he did in very limited time over the full course of being the everyday CF in 2010 is an extremely short-sighted way to enter 2010, can I?

No, you are not alone.

But the Reds are really good at going to war with a battle plan chock full of "ifs" , "I hope" and "baring injury".