Reds land 3 in Baseball America's Southern League Top 20

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...09/268974.html

1. Jason Heyward, of, Mississippi (Braves)
2. Gordon Beckham, ss, Birmingham (White Sox)
3. Desmond Jennings, of, Montgomery (Rays)
4. Mike Stanton, of, Jacksonville (Marlins)
5. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Mobile (Diamondbacks)
6. Tyler Flowers, c, Birmingham (White Sox)
7. Logan Morrison, 1b, Jacksonville (Marlins)
8. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Misssissippi (Braves)
9. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Montgomery (Rays)
10. Josh Bell, 3b, Chattanooga (Dodgers)
11. Jay Jackson, rhp, Tennessee (Cubs)
12. Todd Frazier, of/2b/1b, Carolina (Reds)
13. Jonathan Lucroy, c, Huntsville (Brewers)
14. Chris Heisey, of, Carolina (Reds)
15. Dan Hudson, rhp, Birmingham (White Sox)
16. Jordan Danks, of, Birmingham (White Sox)
17. Sean West, lhp, Jacksonville (Marlins)
18. Andrew Lambo, of, Chattanooga (Dodgers)
19. Daniel Schlereth, lhp, Mobile (Diamondbacks)
20. Travis Wood, lhp, Carolina (Reds)

[Kc61]

I guess these guys missed Cisco's second half. Strongly disagree with BA on Cisco.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I guess these guys missed Cisco's second half. Strongly disagree with BA on Cisco.

I don't really know. Francisco is not a Top 100 prospect in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone on this list to be in a Top 100.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know. Francisco is not a Top 100 prospect in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone on this list to be in a Top 100.

I can see someone arguing for Frazier over Cisco. I don't happen to agree, but it's a close call.

Heisey and Wood over Cisco? Hard for me to understand those choices and wouldn't agree.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I can see someone arguing for Frazier over Cisco. I don't happen to agree, but it's a close call.

Heisey and Wood over Cisco? Hard for me to understand that choice and wouldn't agree.

Heisey over Francisco works for me. Wood is a little less certain. Francisco absolutely 100% must make big adjustments at the plate still. He must take his 4.5 to 1 K/BB rate and cut it by about 25% just to fall into a category where he is below average and in the area where its plausible for him to OPS .800 every year. Francisco has a hit tool and an arm. He can't play defense well and is transitioning to another position which hurts his overall value as well. Chris Heisey could step onto a major league field tomorrow and help a team out in center field every day. Francisco couldn't do the same thing. While his tools aren't the same, his skills are better.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I can see someone arguing for Frazier over Cisco. I don't happen to agree, but it's a close call.

Heisey and Wood over Cisco? Hard for me to understand those choices and wouldn't agree.

Heisey is a better prospect in almost every category not named "K." Wood you might be able to make a good case for since he also didn't have a great first half.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Heisey is a better prospect in almost every category not named "K." Wood you might be able to make a good case for since he also didn't have a great first half.

Heisey doesn't have better power or even a better hit tool.

[Kc61]

I'd like to see Heisey do well, but I'm not convinced about him. Notice that he snapped back to a lower OPS when he got to AAA (.788). His AA numbers were unusually high, he was too good for that level, but things got worse at AAA.

Whether he can be more than a fourth outfielder is unclear to me. I hope he can, and I expect he'll be a major leaguer in any event.

IMO Cisco has a much higher upside, has only done better at each higher level, and is a potential impact player. I think Francisco, Alonso, and Frazier - in some order - are 1, 2, 3 in the Reds system. I think BA got it wrong. But I know many agree with BA.

And as for Cisco's strikeouts, they are relatively low for a power hitter. And as for his reputation as a guy who takes wild swings, we saw with the Reds that he is more disciplined than that.

And JF is 22, Heisey is 24, will turn 25 in December. JF gets a bad rap if you ask me, but it's all just a projection of the future.

[camisadelgolf]

I think Juan Francisco has a lot of room for improvement, and I think he will need to make adjustments to contribute as a Major Leaguer. However, even if he doesn't improve on his plate discipline, he would not be the first player with his peripherals to succeed at the Major League level. Tony Armas posted a 109+ OPS despite having 1201 Ks to just 260 BBs, which is about a 4.6 to 1 K:BB ratio.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I think Juan Francisco has a lot of room for improvement, and I think he will need to make adjustments to contribute as a Major Leaguer. However, even if he doesn't improve on his plate discipline, he would not be the first player with his peripherals to succeed at the Major League level. Tony Armas posted a 109+ OPS despite having 1201 Ks to just 260 BBs, which is about a 4.6 to 1 K:BB ratio.

I'm glad you said "even if he doesn't improve." People tend to forget that JF's "poor" peripherals were at age 21-22 mostly at High A and AA ball.

All the comparisons being made are to major league peripherals of more mature, established players.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Heisey over Francisco works for me. Wood is a little less certain. Francisco absolutely 100% must make big adjustments at the plate still. He must take his 4.5 to 1 K/BB rate and cut it by about 25% just to fall into a category where he is below average and in the area where its plausible for him to OPS .800 every year. Francisco has a hit tool and an arm. He can't play defense well and is transitioning to another position which hurts his overall value as well. Chris Heisey could step onto a major league field tomorrow and help a team out in center field every day. Francisco couldn't do the same thing. While his tools aren't the same, his skills are better.

I think you could say the same thing about Frazier.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I think you could say the same thing about Frazier.

Frazier can play defense well at both 3B and in LF. Francisco isn't good at 3B and is an unknown everywhere else. Not quite the same.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

IMO Cisco has a much higher upside, has only done better at each higher level, and is a potential impact player. I think Francisco, Alonso, and Frazier - in some order - are 1, 2, 3 in the Reds system. I think BA got it wrong. But I know many agree with BA.

And as for Cisco's strikeouts, they are relatively low for a power hitter. And as for his reputation as a guy who takes wild swings, we saw with the Reds that he is more disciplined than that.

I don't think anyone has issue with Francisco's strikeouts. Its his walks, or lack of them. He did show some promise at the plate with the Reds in taking pitches that he used to swing at, but its also an incredibly small sample of 25 plate appearances. It will be interesting to see how AAA goes for him next year. Perhaps someone got to him and talked to him about being a bit more selective. Someone with his bat skills could not only improve the walk rate, but also the contact rate by simply being slightly more selective on pitches he swings at. If he can make that small adjustment, he has the potential to be a slightly lesser version of the Kung-Fu Panda with maybe more power. If he can't make that adjustment, then it could be a long road ahead. Thats the issue with Francisco though, despite all the very good things he does, its something so small that can potentially hold him back exponentially.

And JF is 22, Heisey is 24, will turn 25 in December. JF gets a bad rap if you ask me, but it's all just a projection of the future.

It is all about projection. Right now, Francisco doesn't project to OPS .800 in the major leagues over a full season with his plate discipline. Until he shows something that changes the perception and reality of his pitch selection, he will continue to be projected that way.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Frazier can play defense well at both 3B and in LF. Francisco isn't good at 3B and is an unknown everywhere else. Not quite the same.

Doug, I defer to you, I haven't seen Frazier in the field. But GOYA's reports and some of Sweet's comments were not overly enthusiastic about his defense. Those reports disappointed me.

Of course, it doesn't help matters that Frazier has been bounced around from position to position. Reds don't seem to think there's a natural spot for him.

As for Francisco, some reports say he could be ok at third with time. He's a big guy and probably projects as a LF who can fill in at third or first.

Bottom line to me is that the Reds top three guys (IMO Alonso, Frazier, and Francisco) all have defensive issues. Alonso's of course is that he only plays first.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Doug, I defer to you, I haven't seen Frazier in the field. But GOYA's reports and some of Sweet's comments were not overly enthusiastic about his defense. Those reports disappointed me.

Of course, it doesn't help matters that Frazier has been bounced around from position to position. Reds don't seem to think there's a natural spot for him.

As for Francisco, some reports say he could be ok at third with time. He's a big guy and probably projects as a LF who can fill in at third or first.

Bottom line to me is that the Reds top three guys (IMO Alonso, Frazier, and Francisco) all have defensive issues. Alonso's of course is that he only plays first.

Frazier played 2B in Louisville, where Goya and Sweet both saw him play at. Frazier isn't very good at 2B just yet. He can play 3B and LF though.