Who is your Minor League MVP?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I just think your idea of "stats" is what I'd disagree with, (translation HR's). Besides the fact he doesn't look to be an annual 30+ bombs a year guy I see no issues with his offensive production.

Patient ? Check
Contact ? Check
XBH's ? Check
Overall run production ? Check

Could he put up a .280/.340/.470 career line or better and play a good 3B, I just don't see why he couldn't and those are Mike Lowell's career numbers with only 2 seasons with more than 24 HR's with his average being closer to 20 a season. As a matter of fact I believe that is exactly what his major league line will look like, his minor league career numbers show a .296/.367/.491 hitter and with improvement and a .02 drop accross the board he's right there.

Lowell Career minor league #'s .294/.359/.470 (ages 21-25)
DeRosas Career minor league #'s .274/.346/.374 (ages 21-26)
Frazier Career minor league #'s .296/.367/.491 (ages 21-23)

I just think Frazier is far more Mike lowell and far less Mark DeRosa and there is no reason to believe he cannot play 3rd base as it's already been stated that the organization feels comfortable with the fact that he can play there. In short he's no 4th place hitter but in a good offense he can be a great 6th place hitter and an adequate 5th spot guy.

He's never really played 3B on a day in day out basis. I think the idea of him handling the position is a big assumption. Right now LF and 1B are the only spots I'm sure he could play without killing the staff. If those are his spots, .810 isn't good enough. He could spot in at the other spots without piling up cumulative damage, but he needs to prove he can handle a spot on an every day basis that his bat can support before his value goes to the level many on here are already giving him credit for. I'd bet he wouldn't get such an assumption in trade talks or national rankings.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

He's never really played 3B on a day in day out basis. I think the idea of him handling the position is a big assumption. Right now LF and 1B are the only spots I'm sure he could play without killing the staff. If those are his spots, .810 isn't good enough. He could spot in at the other spots without piling up cumulative damage, but he needs to prove he can handle a spot on an every day basis that his bat can support before his value goes to the level many on here are already giving him credit for. I'd bet he wouldn't get such an assumption in trade talks or national rankings.

Well that's fine however you just assume he cannot. Now if he had a poor glove, a poor arm or was a guy without good IF instincts and/or reaction time to suggest he'd never be able to make that transition I could understand it. But there is nothing to intimate he's not capable of transitioning there other than the fact he hasn't played it much. That coupled with the fact the organization has stated they feel he could makes me lean that way until it's proven otherwise. I guess I'm just willing to accept the fact that a kid with the tools and drive/work ethic to play there will eventually do it when given the opportunity.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Well that's fine however you just assume he cannot. Now if he had a poor glove, a poor arm or was a guy without good IF instincts and/or reaction time to suggest he'd never be able to make that transition I could understand it. But there is nothing to intimate he's not capable of transitioning there other than the fact he hasn't played it much. That coupled with the fact the organization has stated they feel he could makes me lean that way until it's proven otherwise. I guess I'm just willing to accept the fact that a kid with the tools and drive/work ethic to play there will eventually do it when given the opportunity.

I hope he can too. I like the kid. But the organization saying they know he could play there isn't the same as saying he can play there every day or that he's the 3B of the future. It may just mean its one of many positions he can play like SS and 2B. He can play those too, but nobody thinks he can on a daily basis. If we're talking value here, those assumptions don't add a lot of value. It makes him viewed as a guy who can play a lot of spots with a decent stick and that's how he should be valued for now.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

I hope he can too. I like the kid. But the organization saying they know he could play there isn't the same as saying he can play there every day or that he's the 3B of the future. It may just mean its one of many positions he can play like SS and 2B. He can play those too, but nobody thinks he can on a daily basis. If we're talking value here, those assumptions don't add a lot of value. It makes him viewed as a guy who can play a lot of spots and that's how he should be valued for now.

Well then I guess it's just a matter of how we personally view things. #1 His range doesn't allow him to be an above average everyday MIF, at 3B his range is mostly a non-issue. Sure it would be nice if he could cover the kind of ground Brooks Robinson did but it's not neccessary. I don't think anyone believes that the eventual likely finished product shouldn't be the way he should be viewed now, we do it with most everyone else. Unless something arises that says he couldn't possibly play a good 3B on an everyday basis I can only envision him eventually calling that home because it gives him his best chance to most valuable as a Red or any other team. Given like you state that 1B and LF his bat wouldn't be as valuable and his lack of range makes 2B a lesser valuable position for him. A supersub is nice and if that is where he ends up fine but if he can fit at 3rd he is most valuable and that's the point whether he's a Red or trade bait. So until it's proven he can't I don't see why we can't pencil him in there, there is just nothing to say he can't be that/do that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

He's never really played 3B on a day in day out basis. I think the idea of him handling the position is a big assumption. Right now LF and 1B are the only spots I'm sure he could play without killing the staff. If those are his spots, .810 isn't good enough. He could spot in at the other spots without piling up cumulative damage, but he needs to prove he can handle a spot on an every day basis that his bat can support before his value goes to the level many on here are already giving him credit for. I'd bet he wouldn't get such an assumption in trade talks or national rankings.

If Todd could OPS .810 in left field he would be better than league average at the plate for the position. To suggest that isn't good enough is flat out incorrect.

[Scrap Irony]

He's not what I'd want in LF and he's certainly not a top prospect if all he plays is LF. If, however, he can play a middle of the diamond position, he becomes extremely valuable.

I'd be willing to let him learn 2b just to see if he can indeed play the position. If not, he can become a younger, cheaper version of Mark DeRosa.

As a supersub, he has good value. As a 2B, he has great value. As a LF, he has some value.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If Todd could OPS .810 in left field he would be better than league average at the plate for the position. To suggest that isn't good enough is flat out incorrect.

It might be better than league average, but its not good enough to have a winning team. League average has a lot of ABs by late inning defensive replacements and subpar players on last place teams figured into the mix. A starting left fielder on a contender needs to be better than that. A lot better frankly.

Starting NL LF outside of Cincy:

Ibanez: .899
Lee .831
Anderson .705
Braun .937
Holliday .909
Soriano .726
Parra .729
Ramirez .949
Lewis .738 and Velez .708
Coghlan .850
Pagan .837
Willingham .863
Headley .734
Milledge .696
Smith .889 and Gonzalez .878

Say what you will about league average, but teams with LFers who don't "rake" generally point towards lack of offense as a primary reason for missing the play-offs or being bad teams. A guy with an .810 OPS would be serviceable in LF. Winning teams are usually a lot better.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

It might be better than league average, but its not good enough to have a winning team. League average has a lot of ABs by late inning defensive replacements and subpar players on last place teams figured into the mix. A starting left fielder on a contender needs to be better than that. A lot better frankly.

Starting NL LF outside of Cincy:

Ibanez: .899
Lee .831
Anderson .705
Braun .937
Holliday .909
Soriano .726
Parra .729
Ramirez .949
Lewis .738 and Velez .708
Coghlan .850
Pagan .837
Willingham .863
Headley .734
Milledge .696
Smith .889 and Gonzalez .878

Say what you will about league average, but teams with LFers who don't "rake" generally point towards lack of offense as a primary reason for missing the play-offs or being bad teams. A guy with an .810 OPS would be serviceable in LF. Winning teams are usually a lot better.

Teams without a league average LF can't win?
Garret Anderson had a .705 OPS. His team went 86-76.
Alfonso Soriano had a .726 OPS. His team went 83-78.
Lewis/Velez were both below .740. Their team went 88-74.

Of course there are also guys like Willingham/Dunn, Sheffield/Pagan, Braun, and Lee who 'raked' and all had losing records, with only Braun being on a team that even sniffed .500.

Teams win or lose because the set of players is good or bad. One position or guy isn't making or breaking a team, even if they are Willy Taveras type bad.

[TRF]

Can Frazier handle LF? probably. Can Frazier handle 3B? probably.

Frazier isn't the problem, The Reds development team is.

Here you have a guy that projects to have a plus bat. Is considered a natural born leader, and they not only can't find a position for him, they are trying to shoe horn him into a position he may not be suited for, 2B.

I picked JF as my minor league player of the year, but the Reds fell in love with the idea of his power, specifically his HR power at 3B. If his defense cannot hold up at 3B, and its obvious it can't as he is now learning LF in the instructional league, then Frazier should have been manning 3B months ago.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso, Mike Leake Chris Heisey and Travis Wood will all get consideration for all Top 100 lists, with the first three guys making every single one of them. As far as high ceilings go, I will submit Yorman Rodriguez and Billy Hamilton. Yorman you probably know about, but Billy Hamilton was talked about as the best athlete in the entire 2009 draft. Yeah, he is raw, but the kid has an incredibly high ceiling. I think perhaps you have expectations a bit too high based on your comments.

You'll get no argument from me in regards to Alonso or Leake. Both players are high ceiling, potential impact players who are advanced enough to start projecting as major league players. IMHO, they are the only such players in the system.

Frazier has an interesting bat but the way that he has been handled by the organization makes me wonder about his future with the club. Despite the fact that he's been considered a top prospect since being drafted the Reds have been for whatever reason have opted to try moving him all over the diamond rather than letting him settle in and master one postion. What is even more curious is that the Reds have played him sparingly in the position where he seemingly profiles best, 3B. Maybe he can play 3B but I'd be a whole lot more comfortable if the Reds would have recognized that earlier and let him get the reps at the position rather than shuffling him around.

After those three, the talent level in the high minors looks thin. Heisey raked in AA but cooled off in AAA. Francisco raked but his lack of plate discipline and a true position really limit his value. Soto struggled at A+ and there are questions about his ability to stay at 3B. Valaika was awful at AAA. The starting pitching situation is even more bleak. Even after a breakout season Wood profiles as a back of the rotation SP and the drop in K/9 is alarming. Lotzkar and Thopson suffered significant injuries and given their injury trackrecords neither are a sure thing to bounce back.

Yorman Rodriguez and Billy Hamilton were definite bright spots but they're still very early on in their development processes. Ditto for Juan Duran. They're all high ceiling players but it's likely going to be a long time before any of them are going to be able to make an impact on the big league club.

[HokieRed]

Seems to me the organization is telling people what it thinks about Todd Frazier's ability to play 3b every day: it put Francisco there in AA while putting Todd in LF and it acquired Scott Rolen. For all of our wishing/hoping/projecting, it may just be that the org is right and he really can't stick at that position every day. A similar decision took 5 years to make regarding EE; I'm hoping the current FO has decided that kind of protracted wishful thinking is a thing of the past.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Seems to me the organization is telling people what it thinks about Todd Frazier's ability to play 3b every day: it put Francisco there in AA while putting Todd in LF and it acquired Scott Rolen. For all of our wishing/hoping/projecting, it may just be that the org is right and he really can't stick at that position every day. A similar decision took 5 years to make regarding EE; I'm hoping the current FO has decided that kind of protracted wishful thinking is a thing of the past.

I see the same thing you do about how they have dealt with Todd and normally I'd probably agree. Here's the rub however, isn't it just more plausible that they kept Francisco at 3rd because it would have been more difficult to move him anywhere else than the more athletic Frazier? I mean Todd in my eyes is a victim of circumstances (Not his but someone else's), that just makes more sense than suggesting Todd can't play 3rd. I could certainly be wrong but I think the odds are in favor of this scenario which is where I have pushed all my chips to.

[dougdirt]

The Reds brass has been saying for a while now that they believe Todd can play 3B, which is why they have him playing elsewhere.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Teams without a league average LF can't win?
Garret Anderson had a .705 OPS. His team went 86-76.
Alfonso Soriano had a .726 OPS. His team went 83-78.
Lewis/Velez were both below .740. Their team went 88-74.

Of course there are also guys like Willingham/Dunn, Sheffield/Pagan, Braun, and Lee who 'raked' and all had losing records, with only Braun being on a team that even sniffed .500.

Teams win or lose because the set of players is good or bad. One position or guy isn't making or breaking a team, even if they are Willy Taveras type bad.

The Braves, Mets (Pagan's .837 isn't good enough), Cubs and Giants all suffered from a lack of offense. A productive bat in LF may have seen them in the playoffs.

Your right, of course, that it takes a combination of things to win and big power on the corners isn't enough, but lacking big production at more traditionally defensive spots (like say Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Barry Larkin or Eric Davis), then a team needs big offense from LF and 1B. League average is an ok bar to set for good defenders who play up the middle, middle rotation innings eaters and middle of the bullpen "keep 'em close" types, but the main men on the team need to be a lot better than league average or the team simply won't win. If Stubbs, for example, could be league average in CF, he'd be quite valuable. If Frazier was only league average in LF, he'd be manning the spot that the team is looking to upgrade.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

The Braves, Mets (Pagan's .837 isn't good enough), Cubs and Giants all suffered from a lack of offense. A productive bat in LF may have seen them in the playoffs.

Your right, of course, that it takes a combination of things to win and big power on the corners isn't enough, but lacking big production at more traditionally defensive spots (like say Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Barry Larkin or Eric Davis), then a team needs big offense from LF and 1B. League average is an ok bar to set for good defenders who play up the middle, middle rotation innings eaters and middle of the bullpen "keep 'em close" types, but the main men on the team need to be a lot better than league average or the team simply won't win. If Stubbs, for example, could be league average in CF, he'd be quite valuable. If Frazier was only league average in LF, he'd be manning the spot that the team is looking to upgrade.

I am sorry, but we just aren't going to agree on this. There is simply no way that you can try to justify that being better than the league average by 29 points of OPS, which an .810 in left field would be, isn't good enough. Building a baseball team is about trying to have your guy better than their guy at as many spots as possible. When your guy is above average, you are doing that more than you aren't. That means that guy isn't the problem. Sure, maybe you look for an upgrade, but you should ALWAYS be looking to do that. That doesn't make the guy the problem with the team. I don't get how Stubbs being league average is worth more than Frazier being league average.... league average is just that, league average.