Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

[nate]

From MLBTR:

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
By Tim Dierkes [October 14, 2009 at 12:14pm CST]

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Reds. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Corky Miller - $450K+
1B - Joey Votto - $438K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $6.75MM
SS - Paul Janish - $400K
3B - Scott Rolen - $11MM
IF - Drew Sutton - $400K
LF - Jonny Gomes - $600K+
CF - Drew Stubbs - $400K
RF - Jay Bruce - $418K
OF - Willy Taveras - $4MM
OF - Laynce Nix - $600K+
OF - Chris Dickerson - $400K

SP - Aaron Harang - $12.5MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $11MM
SP - Johnny Cueto - $418K
SP - Homer Bailey - $401K
SP - Justin Lehr - $400K

Other candidates: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings

RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Arthur Rhodes - $2MM
RP - Nick Masset - $418K+
RP - Mike Lincoln - $2.5MM
RP - Jared Burton - $420K+
RP - Micah Owings - $420K+
RP - Danny Herrera - $400K

Other commitments: Ramon Hernandez - $1MM buyout

Non-tender candidates: Corky Miller, Bill Bray, Laynce Nix

The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings. We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range. The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Given the lack of payroll space, it's no surprise GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon his interest in free agents will be minimal this offseason.

The Reds should have a strong defensive infield in 2010, especially if they decide Janish's glovework makes up for his poor hitting.

Between Stubbs and Dickerson, the Reds should have a workable internal solution for center field that does not involve giving 400+ plate appearances to Taveras. Replacing Taveras and getting more out of Bruce and Rolen seems to be the easiest route to an improved offense in 2010.

Jocketty has spoken of his desire to add a "quality RBI man" despite the lack of payroll space. Non-tendering Gomes would make little sense, as he could be that RBI man for a few million bucks (Gomes slugged .541 this year).

Jocketty could also free up cash by trading Harang or Arroyo. A team like the Mets might be interested in assuming one of those contracts if the demand for players is minimal. But it's hard to see how that would improve the Reds, who are not in a position to subtract a starter now that Edinson Volquez is unlikely to contribute in 2010 (Tommy John surgery). The best rotation addition for the buck is probably free agent pitching coach Dave Duncan, but his inclination is to stay in St. Louis.

One pitcher Jocketty could afford to trade is Cordero, given Masset's success in 2009. The Reds' closer has two years and $25MM remaining. The problem is that the Reds would have to assume half his contract to make Cordero mildly appealing.

Jocketty overspent on Taveras and Lincoln a year ago, committing $10.25MM to the pair. Add that to the $11MM the Reds GM took on for Rolen next year, and it's clear the Reds don't have much flexibility this winter. Improvements will have to come from within.

Other that not being sure on the mystery that is Rolen's salary for next year, this seems about right to me. Thoughts?

[camisadelgolf]

It would be a surprise, but it wouldn't be shocking if Edinson Volquez were arbitration eligible. He might qualify as a super two like Micah Owings and Nick Masset.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I thought a large chunk of Rolen's 2010 salary was going to be covered by Toronto. Wasn't that one of the justifications for sending Roenicke and especially Stewart along in the deal?

You see, this is what I was worried about. Even if his salary was was covered by Toronto, I was afraid the Reds would still list his $11MM 2010 salary to the payroll to make it look higher than it really is.

Please tell me they are not going to do that.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

I thought a large chunk of Rolen's 2010 salary was going to be covered by Toronto. Wasn't that one of the justifications for sending Roenicke and especially Stewart along in the deal?

You see, this is what I was worried about. Even if his salary was was covered by Toronto, I was afraid the Reds would still list his $11MM 2010 salary to the payroll to make it look higher than it really is.

Please tell me they are not going to do that.

What I read was that if the Reds wanted to receive as much cash as they did and include Encarnacion in the deal, the Blue Jays stipulated that Zach Stewart must in the deal.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

What I read was that if the Reds wanted to receive as much cash as they did and include Encarnacion in the deal, the Blue Jays stipulated that Zach Stewart must in the deal.

And that the Reds pay his '10 salary. Great trade especially when you see Francisco come up and provide the type of offense this team needs. Granted Rolen has provided leadership and is a defensive upgrade to Edwin Encarnacion.

[RedLegSuperStar]

One of the commentors on MLBTradeRumors.com suggested Orlando Cabrera as a possible SS. Now granted he suggested that he wouldn't be costly but I think he would command what Edgar Renteria got last offseason. He drove in 77 runs and that type of defense/offense up the middle would be huge. I think you have to keep the rotation in tacked if you have any hope of winning. The players that should be moved to free up cash would be Cordero & Taveras. I believe if the Reds were to pay half of their 2010 contracts that they could find a buyer perhaps. That could give them the money to resign Gomes, get a back up catcher, and perhaps get Cabrera. The team could be potent with a lone up like this:

Stubbs CF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1st
Rolen 3rd
Bruce RF
Phillips SS
Gomes LF
Hanigan C

That along with a new pitching coach and this team no doubt is improved from a year ago and possibly a contending ballclub. That is if the end of the season wasn't a fluke.

[hebroncougar]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

One of the commentors on MLBTradeRumors.com suggested Orlando Cabrera as a possible SS. Now granted he suggested that he wouldn't be costly but I think he would command what Edgar Renteria got last offseason. He drove in 77 runs and that type of defense/offense up the middle would be huge. I think you have to keep the rotation in tacked if you have any hope of winning. The players that should be moved to free up cash would be Cordero & Taveras. I believe if the Reds were to pay half of their 2010 contracts that they could find a buyer perhaps. That could give them the money to resign Gomes, get a back up catcher, and perhaps get Cabrera. The team could be potent with a lone up like this:

Stubbs CF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1st
Rolen 3rd
Bruce RF
Phillips SS
Gomes LF
Hanigan C

That along with a new pitching coach and this team no doubt is improved from a year ago and possibly a contending ballclub. That is if the end of the season wasn't a fluke.

No club is stupid enough to take on Taveras........if the Reds paid 9/10 of his contract.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by hebroncougar

No club is stupid enough to take on Taveras........if the Reds paid 9/10 of his contract.

Dusty Baker and the Reds were. Maybe someone else out there ignores on base percentages and is enamored with the speed fetish.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields

Dusty Baker and the Reds were. Maybe someone else out there ignores on base percentages and is enamored with the speed fetish.

Hebron might be right.. His stolen bases were cut in half and he struggles to hit. Maybe another team is looking to shed a bad contract as well.

[Guacarock]

Probably will be a dull off-season, but if the Reds are going to attempt to improve, then the FO ought to focus like a laser beam on SS. Janish should get competition. As worthy as the newfound focus on defense might be, you are making a sacrifice on offense by carrying a sub .220 hitter as a regular, and especially when you're routinely batting him second.

The free-agent SS pool is extremely limited (Scutaro or bust) and we seemingly have little money to spend anyway. So, if we're going to improve at SS, we'll probably have to work a trade. I see four options.

1. Go out and get another guy as young as Janish who might be a bust, but has demonstrated some chops in the minors. Tampa Bay's Brignac fills this bill, or Hu from the Dodgers.

2. Acquire a semi-proven superscrub from a championship team eager to prove he's a regular, and not just a versatile utility man. The Angels' Izturis best fits this description.

3. Get a newly fallen regular eager to prove he still has game, and shouldn't have been cast aside so quickly. Welcome Milwaukee's Hardy.

4. Troll the geriatric pool for 1- or 2-year stopgaps who might be acquired through trading our bad contracts (Taveras, Lincoln, etc.) for someone else's. Lugo from St. Louis meets this criteria, but having jettisoned Gonzalez, do we really want to invest $9 million next year in an underperforming SS?

If it was up to me, I wouldn't sit pat this winter. I'd get out and secure competition for Janish. Not that he would lose his job, but he'd have to prove in the spring he could hit .230-.240 batting eighth, or else settle into place as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Options 1 or 2 make the most sense to me, option 3 is less palatable (owing to Milwaukee demanding pitching in return) and option 4 is probably worse than doing nothing and just eating the sunken costs of our bad contracts. We don't have a lot of wiggle room here, but how the FO maneuvers within the range of available options will help define whether this FO has a plan for improvement, what that plan might be, and how much grace time the FO merits from fans to achieve its plans.