Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

JF does hit the ball extremely hard, which could result in higher than normal BABIP numbers. Not sure how high. He also uses the whole field well, as apparently does Alonso.

Albert Pujols has a career BABIP of .315. No one hits the ball harder than that guy. To expect anything higher from a non speed burner is silly. Francisco hits the ball harder, but he isn't hitting it harder than everyone else is. His rates he showed in both AAA and Cincinnati are incredibly high and will be cut by 30-50% over anything resembling a decent sample size.

[klw]

Pujols has a career BA of .334 but his career BABIP is only .315. Is the higher BA because the BABIP does not reflect balls hit for homers?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by klw

Pujols has a career BA of .334 but his career BABIP is only .315. Is the higher BA because the BABIP does not reflect balls hit for homers?

His BA is high because of the amount of contact he makes (only strikes out 9.3% of the time he steps to the plate) and the power he has. But its mostly tied to his contact rate. BABIP doesn't count HR's either, so the more you hit the less BABIP plays with your average, but still, 40 HR's only account for about 20-25% of a players total number of hits.

On second thought I misunderstood your question. Yes, his AVG being higher than his BABIP is because of the home runs not counting as hits in BABIP. BABIP is calculated at (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF).

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Albert Pujols has a career BABIP of .315. No one hits the ball harder than that guy. To expect anything higher from a non speed burner is silly. Francisco hits the ball harder, but he isn't hitting it harder than everyone else is. His rates he showed in both AAA and Cincinnati are incredibly high and will be cut by 30-50% over anything resembling a decent sample size.

Actually, Pujols has a career LD% of 19.5 - not much more than average. When he does hit it hard, he really hits it hard. But he doesn't hit it as hard as frequently as it seems.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Actually, Pujols has a career LD% of 19.5 - not much more than average. When he does hit it hard, he really hits it hard. But he doesn't hit it as hard as frequently as it seems.

Not many guys carry a line drive rate all that much higher than that over a long haul though. I think the overall point remains the same though, no matter how hard you do hit the ball, you aren't expected to have a BABIP in a given season over .315-.320 unless you are a plus runner.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm planning on adding guys like Boxberger, Soto, Valaika, Mesoraco, Sulbaran, Fairel, Silva, Johnson, Tuttle, Maloney, and Duran to the next poll. Feel free to add some more names.

[HokieRed]

Dorn, Smith? Viola, if he still counts.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.

He isn't anywhere but maybe here on Redszone, although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He isn't anywhere but maybe here on Redszone, although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake.

No electioneering.

[lollipopcurve]

although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake

Me too. Even though Leake hasn't thrown a pitch professionally.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Me too. Even though Leake hasn't thrown a pitch professionally.

It's a question of how you view these things. Many of these guys, like Francisco, are quite young.

If you have a fairly static view of things - a guy's stats are a guy's stats and will likely always be his stats - then you probably vote for Frazier or Leake. They have the polish, perhaps the more consistent numbers with fewer negatives.

If you take a more dynamic view - take a young player like Francisco, look at his tremendous ability and factor in his age, also factor in what he showed at AAA and on the Reds and assume some growth - then you'd vote for him, as I will.

[mace]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.

To each his own, but I have no trouble getting excited over a 22-year-old kid who has been at or right around the league lead in home runs and RBIs for three straight years at three different levels, and who has improved his OPS every time he has moved up. And that's not to mention the sensational numbers you'd get if you added up his totals from last year's winter league and this year's stops at Louisville and Cincinnati--the three highest levels he's played at.

[mace]

We're saddled here with painfully small samples, so I thought I'd go ahead and combine Francisco's totals from last winter's Dominican League and this year's stops at Louisville and Cincinnati, his three highest levels.

Dominican: 173 PA, 161 AB, 58 H, 12 HR, 107 TB, 12 BB, 37 RBI
Louisville: 99 PA, 92 AB, 33 H, 5 HR, 55 TB, 4 BB, 19 RBI
Cincinnati: 25 PA, 21 AB, 9 H, 1 HR, 13 TB, 3 BB, 7 RBI

Totals: 297 PA, 274 AB, 100 H, 18 HR, 175 TB, 19 BB, 63 RBI

That's a slash line of 365/401/639. An OPS of 1.040, with 63 RBIs, in essentially half a full season. Even if he were to tank over the other half of that season--which is in direct contrast to the pattern he's presenting--it would be a heckuva line for a kid of 22.

I'm not saying he's Pujols or Fielder. I'm just saying there's a whole lot to like. Alonso may well prove to have a better package, but to this point, no other hitter in the system has shown me as much as Francisco.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not many guys carry a line drive rate all that much higher than that over a long haul though. I think the overall point remains the same though, no matter how hard you do hit the ball, you aren't expected to have a BABIP in a given season over .315-.320 unless you are a plus runner.

I agree more guys carry a 19-20% LD than do not. However, since 2002, there are no fewer than 30-40 regulars that have carried at least 20%. Chipper Jones has a 22.7% in that time. Manny is over 22%. In a smaller period of time, Joe Mauer is 23.5%. It's not easy, but there are a decent amount of players that have done it.