Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by TRF

Yorman. Again.

He'll be #4 for me.

Then enter El Nino Destructor!

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

What is likely to transfer forward, a players peripherals or a players 'production'? If you are looking at a guys walk rate, strikeout rate and power rate, then you go with his peripherals. If you are looking at anything else offensively, you are looking at the wrong things because the rest of it won't transfer forward. AVG, RBI and the likes don't transfer forward to the major league level.

Unless Francisco walks more or strikes out less (or hits 75 HR a year), he is going to struggle to OBP .320 in the major leagues. You simply can't be a very productive player like that even if you hit 30 HR.

If he OBPs .300 with zero walks (and a .300 BA, obviously), with substantial power, he will drive in a boatload of runs. If he bats .300 with 100 walks, he will score more runs but not drive in nearly as many. That’s a fact. And by that fact, I’d much rather have him--as a cleanup hitter (or generally in a run-production spot in the lineup)--as he is, as opposed to a guy who walks to kingdom come. To wit:

Player A (Juan Francisco)...Player B (Joe Walker)

600 PA ............................. 600 PA
.300 BA ........................... .300 BA
0 BB................................. 100 BB
.300 OBP.......................... .417 OBP
180 H............................... 150 H
40 HR............................... 33 HR

In this extreme example, the enormous disparity in OBP would end the discussion for most folks. But if both players were placed in the cleanup spot of the same batting order, the fact is that Francisco, by virtue of his 30 extra hits and 7 extra homers, would drive in significantly more runs than Walker. He wouldn’t score as many, and the bottom line might be very close; but the point is that Francisco, without walking, will be a more productive RBI man than a hitter with the same power and same batting average who walks more. And that, in my view, is how the ability to drive in runs does transfer forward.

You might say that if a guy like Francisco doesn't learn to walk a little, he'll never hit .300 in the big leagues. And you might be right. He will have to learn some selectivity--which he has shown signs of doing. But at the same time, I'd submit that, in rare cases like Francisco's, the ability to consistently crush the ball ought maybe to earn him the benefit of the doubt--at least until he stops improving every year.

[dougdirt]

The problem with that scenario is that Francisco would leave so many extra at bats for those behind him in the order to score runs that the overall issue would not be close at the end of the day. Sure, he may have more RBI + runs, but he also kills RBI chances for the 5/6 and 7 guys by making so many outs.

As for him hitting the ball hard.... lots of guys do. BABIP still keeps them in check just like everyone else.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Look at the trajectory. Age 21, started slowly at AA. Look at the second half numbers. Add in AAA. Add in Cincy. Not too shabby.

You see any pattern with your statements? These levels you're using amount to no more than 200 plate appearances. The trajectory you speak of is, at best, inconclusive. Like Drew Stubbs, I hope his more recent production is a sign of a coming trend, but it's way too early to say. Until then, the best you can make of Francisco is a set of peripherals that historically the majors eat up and spit out. I love his power, and I love the potential with this kid - trust me, he passed the "look" test in his abbreviated appearance at the end of the year. But you are severely overlooking some very unkind history with rates of his kind. The kind of history that have frowned on guys and given them, at most, a career path of Jose Guillen.

[camisadelgolf]

Granted, very, very few players with Francisco's peripherals succeed at the Major League level, but how many players with his peripherals have succeeded in the minor leagues and then failed in MLB?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Granted, very, very few players with Francisco's peripherals succeed at the Major League level, but how many players with his peripherals have succeeded in the minor leagues and then failed in MLB?

I am not sure what you are asking.... but there isn't even a good comp for anyone having the peripherals he has in the minors in terms of K/BB. I doubt you are going to find anyone with a career minor league .311 OBP (Francisco's current career MiLB OBP) having success in the majors. Even low OBP guys in the majors had decent OBP's in the minor leagues.

Here are the Top 10 Lowest OBP's in the majors in 2009 with at least 300 PA career minor league OBP's

Dioner Navarro .352
Ronny Cedeno .329
Bill Hall .306
Rod Barajas .320
Yuniesky Betancout .311 (in 1 full season at AA/AAA)
Willy Taveras .370
Hank Blalock .394 (man what cliff did he fall off of)
Alex Gonzalez .318
Ivan Rodriguez (N/A at baseballreference)
Chris Davis .366
Benjie Molina .350

Only Bill Hall and Yuniesky Betancourt are in the same area as Juan Francisco has been. Bill Hall actually may be a good comp for Francisco.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not sure what you are asking.... but there isn't even a good comp for anyone having the peripherals he has in the minors in terms of K/BB. I doubt you are going to find anyone with a career minor league .311 OBP (Francisco's current career MiLB OBP) having success in the majors. Even low OBP guys in the majors had decent OBP's in the minor leagues.

Here are the Top 10 Lowest OBP's in the majors in 2009 with at least 300 PA career minor league OBP's

Dioner Navarro .352
Ronny Cedeno .329
Bill Hall .306
Rod Barajas .320
Yuniesky Betancout .311 (in 1 full season at AA/AAA)
Willy Taveras .370
Hank Blalock .394 (man what cliff did he fall off of)
Alex Gonzalez .318
Ivan Rodriguez (N/A at baseballreference)
Chris Davis .366
Benjie Molina .350

Only Bill Hall and Yuniesky Betancourt are in the same area as Juan Francisco has been. Bill Hall actually may be a good comp for Francisco.

Interesting and its what holds me back with Francisco as well, but KC and others have a good point about rare skillsets. Francisco's power is a rare skill that none of the others on this list have.

A good comp might be the guy that Redszone lusted for last year - Jermaine Dye. Dye had OBPs at various levels rising through the Braves system at age 22 and lower of .327, .393 (with a .347 BA in a small sample), .346, .329 and .264. None of those had an ISO-D of over .050. In AAA as a 22 Y/O Dye went .232/.264/.423 in about 150 PAs. After that he spent a half season in the Braves OF and went .281/.304/.459 in 292 ABs with just 8 walks and 67Ks. Dye even played a little 3B in the low minors before converting to the OF. Francisco's skills show ISO-D as a tad worse with more power than Dye showed in the minors.

Francisco seems to be trending upward a bit in his ISO-D numbers but still needs to improve for sure. I'm a lot more optimistic about him than I was a year ago simply because he keeps hitting, but still wouldn't be surprised if he washes out completely. I currently have him at #5 on my list and if he keeps hitting, I'd keep promoting him no matter what the peripherals say.

[mth123]

This is how Francisco and Dye Stack-up.

Key	(Age, AB, ISO-D, ISO-P)	 	(Age, AB, ISO-D, ISO-P)
Name	Dye	 	                Francisco
Rook -	19, 124, .046, .113	 	19, 182, .025, .127
Rook +	19, 94, .050, .149	 	19, 36, 0, .084
A-	20, 506, .048, .174	 	20, 534, .033, .195
A+	N/A	 	                21, 516, .026, .219
AA	21, 403, .044, .196	 	22, 437, .036, .220
AAA	22, 142, .032, .191	 	22, 92, .025, .239

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The problem with that scenario is that Francisco would leave so many extra at bats for those behind him in the order to score runs that the overall issue would not be close at the end of the day. Sure, he may have more RBI + runs, but he also kills RBI chances for the 5/6 and 7 guys by making so many outs.

As for him hitting the ball hard.... lots of guys do. BABIP still keeps them in check just like everyone else.

I'd prefer to entrust the driving in of runs to the players who are best at driving in runs--namely, the cleanup hitter. That's his job. You don't want him leaving it to somebody else. Yeah, he'll make more outs than the next day. But for a hitter who is asked to drive in runs, walks can be downright counter-productive.

On the matter of hitting the ball hard, it has to be acknowledged that Francisco is not like "lots of guys." That's why we're having this discussion. He's different. I don't have numbers to back this up, but lots of eyeballs have attested that he simply hits the ball harder than anybody else in the system. Much harder.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Look at the trajectory. Age 21, started slowly at AA. Look at the second half numbers. Add in AAA. Add in Cincy. Not too shabby.

Way too small of sample sizes to make conclusions from. But if there is some evidence provided by scouts that he has made strides and is a different player than his career minor league numbers indicate then I'm with you...

[mound_patrol]

Originally Posted by mace

I'd prefer to entrust the driving in of runs to the players who are best at driving in runs--namely, the cleanup hitter. That's his job. You don't want him leaving it to somebody else. Yeah, he'll make more outs than the next day. But for a hitter who is asked to drive in runs, walks can be downright counter-productive.

On the matter of hitting the ball hard, it has to be acknowledged that Francisco is not like "lots of guys." That's why we're having this discussion. He's different. I don't have numbers to back this up, but lots of eyeballs have attested that he simply hits the ball harder than anybody else in the system. Much harder.

Asking one guy to be THE guy just spells trouble. I want a guy who can drive players in if he gets his pitch, but can take a walk if he gets nothing to drive. More guys on base equal more RBI chances. Now we just need more players who know how to find firstbase.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Way too small of sample sizes to make conclusions from. But if there is some evidence provided by scouts that he has made strides and is a different player than his career minor league numbers indicate then I'm with you...

Every year, Francisco adjusts to a new level and takes off in the second half. This year was no exception. It's a pattern for his whole career.

Career minor league average stats are meaningless because, by definition, these are young players improving. You have to look at the trajectory. Season by season, half by half.

Francisco's walk rate is low, but he's hit very well at every level as he became more comfortable there. People said this would stop in the higher levels. That proved to be wrong. He only got better at the higher levels.

The last hurdle for him is to deal with adjustments at the major league level. Pitchers will adjust to him. He will have to adjust back. It's what Jay Bruce is going through right now.

I think JF can and will do it. Others disagree.

[lollipopcurve]

You have to look at the trajectory. Season by season, half by half.

Yep. With you all the way on this one, Kc.

(Take, by contrast, Danny Dorn, a much older player. Dorn improved a lot in the 2nd half at AAA this past year, but overall his numbers are still down from AA. My sense is that the trajectory there is more or less level -- yet here's a guy getting votes as high as #2 on this list.)

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Kc61

People said this would stop in the higher levels. That proved to be wrong. He only got better at the higher levels.

He has barely even played above A ball? His sample is so small in AAA it might as well be thrown out, and he numbers at AA are less than impressive...

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

He has barely even played above A ball? His sample is so small in AAA it might as well be thrown out, and he numbers at AA are less than impressive...

Less than impressive?

437 AA at bats in 2009.
.501 slugging percentage.
22 homers and 74 RBIs.
50 extra base hits.
.281 BA.
Age 21 for most of that stint.

I think that's impressive. He has a low walk rate. That's all you're saying.