First AFL Box score

[Scrap Irony]

If Cincinnati deals Votto (as you're intimating), they'd better get a monster return. Like Bucholz, Lowrie, Bard, AND Kottaras.

Otherwise, it's makes no sense.

Votto is this team's best player and leader, not to mention, he's still extremely cheap.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

If Cincinnati deals Votto (as you're intimating), they'd better get a monster return. Like Bucholz, Lowrie, Bard, AND Kottaras.

Otherwise, it's makes no sense.

Votto is this team's best player and leader, not to mention, he's still extremely cheap.

I would imagine they would get a sizable return for Votto given both his production and his price.

[lollipopcurve]

Unfortunately the Reds, at least from rumors from scouts in the NL, think a little differently than you about Votto.

I really think we have no good reason to believe this.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

What if Alonso's better than Joey? Remember he's going to be cheaper longer.

Votto had the 4th best OPS in the majors this year, trailing only Pujols, Mauer and Fielder.

4 of the top OPS in the majors were 1stbaseman in the NL (also Lee) and 5 of the top 7 (Gonzalez).

It's no wonder Votto is underrated even by Reds fans.

[lollipopcurve]

Votto had the 4th best OPS in the majors this year, trailing only Pujols, Mauer and Fielder.

4 of the top OPS in the majors were 1stbaseman in the NL (also Lee) and 5 of the top 7 (Gonzalez).

It's no wonder Votto is underrated even by Reds fans.

Exactly. I can't imagine there's a better approach than holding onto young players that produce at that level. And, it makes little sense to move Votto out of his comfort zone at 1B, especially when there appear to be a few other solid options for LF duty.

Alonso has a long, long ways to go before he represents a competent replacement for Votto, in my book -- but he could represent an excellent trading chip right now.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Exactly. I can't imagine there's a better approach than holding onto young players that produce at that level. And, it makes little sense to move Votto out of his comfort zone at 1B, especially when there appear to be a few other solid options for LF duty.

Alonso has a long, long ways to go before he represents a competent replacement for Votto, in my book -- but he could represent an excellent trading chip right now.

See your argument is just as much speculation as everyone else. Why must is be that Alonso has such a long way to go? He was not some raw HS kid but a polished college bat who fought an injury during his first full season. If the Reds organization has faith Alonso will develop into the impact bat many of us believe he will be trading Joey is not all that crazy. Unless something miraculous happens the Reds will not be contending in '10 and Joey can bring you in much more than Alonso to where they could possibly contend in '11 and for years to come.

[lollipopcurve]

See your argument is just as much speculation as everyone else. Why must is be that Alonso has such a long way to go? He was not some raw HS kid but a polished college bat who fought an injury during his first full season. If the Reds organization has faith Alonso will develop into the impact bat many of us believe he will be trading Joey is not all that crazy. Unless something miraculous happens the Reds will not be contending in '10 and Joey can bring you in much more than Alonso to where they could possibly contend in '11 and for years to come.

My argument is based primarily on 2 things:

1. Votto is a proven elite performer and still quite affordable. No speculation there. To trade those kinds of assets is absurd unless the team has several holes on the roster and little help coming from the minors. The Reds are not in that situation.
Alonso is a safe bet to be a solid hitter, but that's no more than a minimum requirement for 1B. That's a position where you want an elite hitter, and we know Votto can be that. No matter how good the Reds feel about Alonso, there is never certainty that a hitter will be elite until he's shown that level of performance in the majors. This means there's a very good chance Alonso would be a downgrade from Votto, even possibly a big one. Alonso, despite his draft pedigree, has not yet shown he can dominate minor league pitchers, and he's got a big platoon split. Granted, he had a hamate injury that kept him out for a long time last year, but that injury in itself leaves a small question mark or two (will he re-injure it? can he come back and hit for power consistently?).

2. The plethora of options for LF -- Heisey, Dickerson, Gomes, Francisco, Frazier -- gives the team so many options there that they can feel secure the position will be filled adequately, without having to move Votto there. It is possible that more than one of these guys, or a platoon of two of them, will be better offensively than Alonso -- there is some high ceiling talent there, some polish, and lots of depth. I like the odds.

[bubbachunk]

Why bring up Alonso's split when it is something like 70 PAs? Seems you are forcing a point in order to better your argument. Holes at C, SS, pitching staff. Cozart possibly to fill SS, nobody to really split time with at C.

Of all the "options" for LF you posted have fairly large questions about their ability to hold their own as the everyday LFer. Whether it be because of to little bat, bad D or bad splits. I don't buy that the Reds are comfortable with a single one of them in LF for any long period of time.

[lollipopcurve]

Why bring up Alonso's split when it is something like 70 PAs?

He had the same issue in college. Doesn't mean he can't correct it. But Votto has already shown he can handle lefties well.

Holes at C, SS, pitching staff.

Trading Votto will not bring a certain, long-term solution at more than 1 of those positions. Young, can't-miss talent is very, very difficult to acquire, especially when those are middle-of-the-diamond positions. Packaging Alonso with another good prospect or two can accomplish the same thing.

Of all the "options" for LF you posted have fairly large questions about their ability to hold their own as the everyday LFer.

Yes, they all have questions, but so does Alonso, as noted. And Alonso is 1 guy -- there's a handful of possibilities for LF.

I don't buy that the Reds are comfortable with a single one of them in LF for any long period of time.

They may not be. But I find it even harder to believe they're so comfortable with Alonso that they'd trade one of the best hitters in baseball while he's still under team control for several years (and possibly willing to stay for many years). Alonso is just not that compelling a talent at this time.

[HokieRed]

I don't underrate Votto at all. I'm on record as saying that his last six weeks of the season put him as close to untouchable as I'd regard any player. I'm just very high on Alonso. I think it will be obvious by mid-season 2010 that the best approach to our offensive problems is to encourage Votto to make the move to LF and to install Alonso at 1b. And it is looking more and more like the further keys to our offense will be to find places for Heisey and Francisco--if he can learn to walk more [I don't think he can reduce his K rate much further]. But I wouldn't think of moving Bruce and I also like Stubbs and always have. It's a nice set of problems for Reds fans to have for a change.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I really think we have no good reason to believe this.

Doug has made other posts that insinuate he believes it might not be about what the Reds think of his ability, but rather or not they're concerned about the other issues.

I personally don't think this means the Reds are actively looking to trade Votto, but rather, because they're still somewhat concerned about some of these issues, they'd listen if the right trade came along.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

He had the same issue in college. Doesn't mean he can't correct it. But Votto has already shown he can handle lefties well.

Except you are wrong. I only have the data for 2007 and 2008 from Miami, but here are the numbers.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	W	IW	HP	K	GDP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
vs. LH	80	20	33	7	1	7	28	17	3	2	11	1	99	.412	.515	.787	1.302	.419
vs. LH	84	26	21	4	1	7	23	21	2	3	17	2	108	.250	.413	.571	.984	.233
	164	46	54	11	2	14	51	38	5	5	28	3	207	.329	.469	.677	1.145	.328

10 more walks than strikeouts. Power. Struggles?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I really think we have no good reason to believe this.

I don't think this rumor just started up for no reason. Its not a typical fan rumor, as Votto is young and cheap and quite good, so fans don't see a reason to trade him. There is something behind where this started. Whether its 100% the reason I was told, I don't know.... but I fully believe there is some legitimate reasons behind this rumor to be at least partially true.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except you are wrong. I only have the data for 2007 and 2008 from Miami, but here are the numbers.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	W	IW	HP	K	GDP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
vs. LH	80	20	33	7	1	7	28	17	3	2	11	1	99	.412	.515	.787	1.302	.419
vs. LH	84	26	21	4	1	7	23	21	2	3	17	2	108	.250	.413	.571	.984	.233
	164	46	54	11	2	14	51	38	5	5	28	3	207	.329	.469	.677	1.145	.328

10 more walks than strikeouts. Power. Struggles?

A metal bat is a great compensator.

[lollipopcurve]

Except you are wrong. I only have the data for 2007 and 2008 from Miami, but here are the numbers.

Throw those numbers up against his RHP split.