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10-22-2009, 08:32 AM
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#1 |
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Indianapolis
Posts: 1,666
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2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Over at baseballthinkfactory.org they've posted their statistical projections for the 2010 Reds, using their systen called "ZiPS". I don't know how their projections are done, and I don't agree with a lot of them (especially the pitching), but there's some interesting stuff there, especially regarding comps. For example:
-Bo Diaz shows up as a comp for Ramon Hernandez -Jacob Brumfield is a listed comp for Darnell McDonald, which seems about right, unfortunately. -My favorite: The #1 comp for Jared Burton is none other than Ted Power. Ironic. and pretty accurate. Check it out if you get a chance...
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"In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra |
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10-22-2009, 10:55 AM
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#2 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,349
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/
They have some other teams up, too. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/
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"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons |
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10-22-2009, 11:09 AM
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#3 |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,695
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
ZiPS hates Stubbs (.235/.305/.348). He's Janish in centerfield.
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"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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10-22-2009, 12:05 PM
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#4 | |
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Stat Wanker Hodiernus
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 14,988
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
It really comes down to sustaining his power production.
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Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance. Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-22-2009 at 12:11 PM. |
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10-22-2009, 12:21 PM
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#5 |
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Et tu, Brutus?
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Atlanta, Ga.
Posts: 9,085
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Generally, the CHONE and PECOTA projections are the two I care about most.
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"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda |
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10-22-2009, 12:42 PM
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#6 |
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Member
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Bedford, KY
Posts: 8,992
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
If the playing time is about right, the offense projects to be slightly below league average to slightly above:
Stubbs/ Dickerson CF 77 (600 ABs, 100 ABs for Dickerson) Janish SS 72 (Weakest part of offense by far.) Votto 1B 128 (Lower than expected, especially considering he's entering his prime years.) Rolen/ Francisco 3B 100 (Rolen gets two-thirds of the ABs, Francisco the others. ZiPS likes Francisco more than most on Redszone.) Bruce/ Dickerson RF 100.5 (Projections for playing time are a little out of whack, and ZiPS projects very little boost for Bruce next year. Bruce = Kearns, in ZiPS' view.) Gomes/ Balentien LF 100.5 (League average bat between them, in a 50/50 platoon.) Phillips SS 102 (ZiPS likes them some Brandon Phillips. If glove added in, he becomes more valuable in 2010 than Votto.) Hanigan C 87 (Need a free agent a great deal here, but ZiPS really likes Corky.) The starting pitching looks to be above average as a whole. ZiPS really, really likes Matt Maloney, but fears and distrusts Homer Bailey. As a unit, the starters would average out as a 102.2 with missed starts being filled by ERA+ numbers (120, 95, 92) that are pretty close to league average as well. The relievers grade out as well above average, at 119.3, with Lincoln in reserve at 93.
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"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat." -- Christy Matthewson "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot." -- Leo Durocher |
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10-22-2009, 01:33 PM
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#7 | |
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Member
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 8,630
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
They don't have much in the way of OBP do they? Code:
Offensive Projections AVG OBP SLG Willy Taveras .260 .309 .320 Chris Dickerson .247 .336 .394 Drew Stubbs .235 .305 .348 Paul Janish .239 .310 .340 Joey Votto .293 .372 .500 Brandon Phillips .276 .327 .446 Scott Rolen .283 .352 .439 Jay Bruce .251 .315 .459 Laynce Nix .249 .302 .456 Jonny Gomes .243 .328 .471 Ryan Hanigan .267 .347 .357 Corky Miller .243 .328 .361 Adam Rosales .248 .314 .394 With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips. With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff. Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time. An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up. Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam. Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub. Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after. Which scenario is more plausible? It's close, but my money is on Shaquille O'Neal's 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape. Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of "0-0, 0.00" than the projection given below. The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn't make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of "try every player on the roster at shortstop!" after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season. There's a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well. The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have. Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-22-2009 at 01:36 PM. |
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10-22-2009, 02:31 PM
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#8 | |
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Socratic Gadfly
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 4,224
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
Way too little data, against usually lesser talent, and there's the whole learning curve on both sides to deal with. There is now a scouting report on Stubbs, and that changes everything. He could easily have worse numbers than what Zips is projecting and easily have better. It comes down to how he adjusts to the league and how the league adjusts to him.
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"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein |
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10-22-2009, 02:38 PM
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#9 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
Posts: 8,694
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
He might do slightly better than ZiPS, but I wouldn't bet anything of substance on it. |
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10-22-2009, 03:11 PM
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#10 | |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,695
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
BTW, it would be tough to easily have worse numbers than the ones ZiPs is projecting for Stubbs.
__________________
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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10-22-2009, 03:24 PM
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#11 | |
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Socratic Gadfly
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 4,224
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
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"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein |
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10-22-2009, 04:03 PM
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#12 |
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The Boss
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 31,108
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Last years ZiPS
Code:
Name AVG OBP SLG Ramon Hernandez .263 .326 .418 Ryan Hanigan .260 .338 .338 Joey Votto .280 .353 .490 Bran Phillips .268 .320 .440 Ed Encarnacion .272 .354 .481 Alex Gonzalez .258 .313 .407 Jay Bruce .276 .328 .522 Laynce Nix .259 .311 .492 Chris Dickerson .235 .317 .413 Darn McDonald .267 .323 .415 Willy Taveras .272 .318 .331
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www.redsminorleagues.com |
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10-22-2009, 05:14 PM
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#13 | |
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,103
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
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"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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10-22-2009, 05:15 PM
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#14 |
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High five!
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Anaheim, CA
Posts: 6,813
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Darn McDonald indeed!
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"Bring on Rod Stupid!" |
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10-22-2009, 05:17 PM
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#15 | |
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,103
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Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections
Quote:
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"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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