Who is Redszone's #5 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Doug, I know this may be a bit much to ask, but I think it would be very interesting to see your thought process, particularly as it relates to balancing floor/ceiling. Given the high washout rate of all prospects, particualrly pitchers, my gut says that we tend to underweight the floor of very young players.

I think a matrix of high(ceiling)/medium(most likely major league contribution)/low(never establishes in majors) career trajectories with a likelihood of reaching each (summing to 100%) would be quite interesting. At the very simply level, what are the odds that Yorman never plays with the Reds?

I do think that there is a tendency to not give as much credence to the floor of younger players simply because we haven't seen as many of their flaws (if they do have them for example) as the guy in AA, thus they tend to look better than they may be.

With Yorman, I think the odds that he doesn't ever play in the majors (can't say with the Reds because you never know about trades) is less than 15%. He is a very good center fielder right now. He has great bat speed. He has a great arm. He will get his chances and move up simply because of those things. From there the question is, even if the bat never works out, does he at the very least turn into a 5th outfielder because of the speed and defense? It's a very different case for someone like say Juan Duran, who doesn't have the same defensive potential and has to rely much more on his bat developing to reach the majors.

[Scrap Irony]

I'd guess the washout rate due to injury would be at least 15%, with another 15-35% rate for "holes" or lack of talent. But I haven't done the legwork, so it's just a WAG.

[JayBruceFan]

I went with Yorman because of all of the reported tools that he has

I really hope he plays at least part of next season with Dayton. I am very excited to see him play.

The same goes for Juan Duran but I doubt he makes it to Dayton next year.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Which 2?

Hamilton and Silva. I'd like to see your reasoning as to why Hamilton is 10 and Silva is in the 20's.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Hamilton and Silva. I'd like to see your reasoning as to why Hamilton is 10 and Silva is in the 20's.

Tools. Silva has good tools. Hamilton has some great ones. Position has a little to do with it as well. Hamilton looks to be an above average defensive shortstop right now. Silva has good speed and plays center, but I haven't seen any reports that tout him as an above average defensive center fielder. Hamilton is a big boom/bust type of guy, but he was also arguably the best athlete in the entire draft. Maybe I am just a sucker, but the coaches in the GCL certainly though Hamilton was a much better prospect than Silva was. Hamilton was rated ahead of Yorman Rodriguez at BA in the league rankings that are mostly done by the coaches in the league. Silva was unranked in the league.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tools. Silva has good tools. Hamilton has some great ones. Position has a little to do with it as well. Hamilton looks to be an above average defensive shortstop right now. Silva has good speed and plays center, but I haven't seen any reports that tout him as an above average defensive center fielder. Hamilton is a big boom/bust type of guy, but he was also arguably the best athlete in the entire draft. Maybe I am just a sucker, but the coaches in the GCL certainly though Hamilton was a much better prospect than Silva was. Hamilton was rated ahead of Yorman Rodriguez at BA in the league rankings that are mostly done by the coaches in the league. Silva was unranked in the league.

Fair enough, another classic Heisey vs. Francisco battle to the bigs.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Fair enough, another classic Heisey vs. Francisco battle to the bigs.

I don't know if its quite that extreme. Heisey, until this year had only really showed above average speed among his tools. Silva on the flip side has more than that with the speed/arm/power. I do think that Hamilton is going to have to show some progress with the bat next year, but I am pretty interested to see how the switch hitting thing goes. How often is it that a guy doesn't start that until he is a pro?

[lollipopcurve]

Maybe I am just a sucker, but the coaches in the GCL certainly though Hamilton was a much better prospect than Silva was. Hamilton was rated ahead of Yorman Rodriguez at BA in the league rankings that are mostly done by the coaches in the league. Silva was unranked in the league.

We've discussed this before, but I think it's important to take BA Gulf Coast League prospect rankings with a grain of salt. The Reds play a grand total of 4 teams in that league -- Pirates, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles. That means 1/2 of the league managers never saw the Reds' prospects. I believe it's more accurate to say that those rankings have more to do with predraft scouting reports/draft pedigree than they do with reports based on the players' play post-draft. If you read the BA reports predraft and compare them to the league rankings writeups, you'll often see strong similarities and often little (or no) information that seems new. I don't mean to be cynical here -- just sharing an observation gleaned from decades of reading/following this stuff. I don't think it's without reason to suggest that because Hamilton was more highly touted by BA coming into the draft than Silva, he maintains that status in the prospect rankings after a half-season of play, despite the fact that Silva hit a whole heckuva lot better.

Personally, I think BA may have whiffed on Silva. His GCL numbers were very, very good for an 18 year old in his 1st year of pro ball.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

We've discussed this before, but I think it's important to take BA Gulf Coast League prospect rankings with a grain of salt. The Reds play a grand total of 4 teams in that league -- Pirates, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles. That means 1/2 of the league managers never saw the Reds' prospects. I believe it's more accurate to say that those rankings have more to do with predraft scouting reports/draft pedigree than they do with reports based on the players' play post-draft. If you read the BA reports predraft and compare them to the league rankings writeups, you'll often see strong similarities and often little (or no) information that seems new. I don't mean to be cynical here -- just sharing an observation gleaned from decades of reading/following this stuff. I don't think it's without reason to suggest that because Hamilton was more highly touted by BA coming into the draft than Silva, he maintains that status in the prospect rankings after a half-season of play, despite the fact that Silva hit a whole heckuva lot better.

Personally, I think BA may have whiffed on Silva. His GCL numbers were very, very good for an 18 year old in his 1st year of pro ball.

While I certainly agree and I generally don't take any of the League Rankings with much merit, I do pay attention to what is said in the reports on the players. I think its common sense that you see pre draft reports match up very well with post GCL reports.... they were both scouting reports from the same season. Odds aren't good that someone got faster, decided to throw harder or all of a sudden improved bat speed in 4 months.

It still comes down to what will happen, not what has happened. Better performance doesn't mean better prospect always.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While I certainly agree and I generally don't take any of the League Rankings with much merit, I do pay attention to what is said in the reports on the players. I think its common sense that you see pre draft reports match up very well with post GCL reports.... they were both scouting reports from the same season. Odds aren't good that someone got faster, decided to throw harder or all of a sudden improved bat speed in 4 months.

It still comes down to what will happen, not what has happened. Better performance doesn't mean better prospect always.

But to give it no weight at all is a mistake. I know you are not advocating giving it no weight but to give it just a smidge might as well be none. Same age, same level, far I mean far greater success must carry some weight.

[lollipopcurve]

I think its common sense that you see pre draft reports match up very well with post GCL reports.... they were both scouting reports from the same season. Odds aren't good that someone got faster, decided to throw harder or all of a sudden improved bat speed in 4 months.

Yes, however -- the competition is much, much better, and supposedly the reports are based on seeing these guys A LOT -- a lot more than scouts see, especially national guys, before the draft. Common sense tells me that even a half season of play in the GCL is going to produce a wealth of new information for evaluators. I just don't think BA gets at that information, nor do I think teams would share much of it for public consumption.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Yes, however -- the competition is much, much better, and supposedly the reports are based on seeing these guys A LOT -- a lot more than scouts see, especially national guys, before the draft. Common sense tells me that even a half season of play in the GCL is going to produce a wealth of new information for evaluators. I just don't think BA gets at that information, nor do I think teams would share much of it for public consumption.

The tools aren't going to change much from a scout seeing someone 5-10 times or them playing 40 games against better competition. Your arm is your arm regardless of who you are playing. Your speed is your speed. Your range is your range. Your bat speed is your bat speed. Your instincts and hands in the field are the same.

[lollipopcurve]

The tools aren't going to change much from a scout seeing someone 5-10 times or them playing 40 games against better competition. Your arm is your arm regardless of who you are playing. Your speed is your speed. Your range is your range. Your bat speed is your bat speed. Your instincts and hands in the field are the same.

Everything crystallizes against better competition. Why do you think showcase events are scouting meccas? When you "project" a player, much of what you're trying to do is guess how he will play against better competition. The game speeds up, and the questions become, can the tools "play up" and does the player have the instincts to handle the faster game...

Big step from high school ball to pro ball. Plenty of guys start slow (like Jeter and Chipper Jones), so too much importance should not be placed on a high schooler like Hamilton struggling. On the flip side, though, when a high schooler plays very well, like Silva did, it should make a strong impression, IMO.

[mdccclxix]

Funny to see the discussion go the way it has. I was not ready to give the younger prospects my vote off hand because it almost feels like plagiarism to me. "Everybody else is saying he's good so he must be" type of thing. What I'm saying is, I'm not so into it that I can gleen or even find scouting info. So, my bias is towards experience and numbers.

I give these veterans a lot of credit. They've lasted out, they're getting closer, the what if? is receding. Perhaps it isn't fair or practical, but I put those unable to buy some smokes in the dream category, not full prospects yet. The Reds and others do right by buying nice dreams like Yorman, but because the slate is clean, it is terribly easy to dream big. I imagine I'll find Yorman no higher than 7, no lower than 14 on my list. I guess I'm a slap hitter.

I took Maloney. Nobody talks about this guys guts. This guy works really hard. And if maintaining a 5:1 K:BB ratio and striking out 7.9 batters per 9 in AAA over 140 innings isn't squeezing every last drop of effort out of his chances, I don't know what is. I give him credit and see his ceiling being a innings eating #4 on a winning team. Perhaps the heir to Arroyo, if you want.

Give Wood one more year, even half a year like last, at AAA and he's probably ahead of Maloney, but for now Maloney's earned recognition.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Everything crystallizes against better competition. Why do you think showcase events are scouting meccas? When you "project" a player, much of what you're trying to do is guess how he will play against better competition. The game speeds up, and the questions become, can the tools "play up" and does the player have the instincts to handle the faster game...

Big step from high school ball to pro ball. Plenty of guys start slow (like Jeter and Chipper Jones), so too much importance should not be placed on a high schooler like Hamilton struggling. On the flip side, though, when a high schooler plays very well, like Silva did, it should make a strong impression, IMO.

Sure, production matters some but without knowing how that production came, and we most certainly don't know if Silva struggled to hit pitchers who throw 90 but killed guys who threw in the 80s (big example, I actually like Juan Silva quite a bit. Loved his swing in the limited video I saw of him). I rely on scouting a lot more than numbers at the lower levels because guys are so raw for the most part.