First AFL Box score - Page 12 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Brutus · 10-28-2009, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His plate approach went from iffy to outstanding despite jumping from Low A to AA. The difference that we saw was his power dropped down some and that is what caused the lower OPS. While he may be a year away from what you want, is he a year away from being a better option than Janish because that is what really matters?

lollipop's last comment is how I view this. I think he could very well wind up being better than Janish in 2010, but we don't know what he will. You're absolutely right his approach definitely improved. That was encouraging. I can't completely dismiss the power loss, though I am not knocking him by any means, just that I think he still has some more development time coming.

My thinking on this is that there are a lot of guys that could be a better option at short. But I don't want to overpay for established guys who aren't very good nor do I want to rush unproven guys who might have a chance of being good, but aren't a sure thing. I'd rather we not start Cozart's arbitration clock (in the event he turns out to be a good player) on the offchance he "might" be better than Janish.

Unless he comes out guns blazin' in the spring, let him sit in AAA in 2010 and see what he can do after that.

dougdirt · 10-28-2009, 07:40 PM

Yonder Alonso went 2-4 today. Chris Heisey went 0-3 with 2 walks.

11larkin11 · 10-28-2009, 10:14 PM

I've seemed to notice that Alonso has a penchant for driving in runs when he's in position to. I don't have any stats to back it up. It just seems following him this year in High A, AA, and even maybe in AAA, can't remember, and even now in the AFL, it seems every time he has an RBI situation, he drives the run in. He also seems to have a lot of sac flies.

dougdirt · 10-28-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

I've seemed to notice that Alonso has a penchant for driving in runs when he's in position to. I don't have any stats to back it up. It just seems following him this year in High A, AA, and even maybe in AAA, can't remember, and even now in the AFL, it seems every time he has an RBI situation, he drives the run in. He also seems to have a lot of sac flies.

Alonso's splits with runners on/none on are incredible.

Code:

	AB	H	2B	HR	W	HP	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
None On	185	46	16	4	25	0	34	.249	.338	.400	.738
Men On	148	51	10	6	23	0	20	.345	.420	.534	.954
RISP	77	28	4	6	12	0	8	.364	.426	.649	1.075

redsfandan · 10-29-2009, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Alonso's splits with runners on/none on are incredible.

Code:

	AB	H	2B	HR	W	HP	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
None On	185	46	16	4	25	0	34	.249	.338	.400	.738
Men On	148	51	10	6	23	0	20	.345	.420	.534	.954
RISP	77	28	4	6	12	0	8	.364	.426	.649	1.075

77 abs screams small sample size but even if he continues to be great with risp how much will it matter if the guys in front of him can't get into scoring position.

RedsManRick · 10-29-2009, 12:08 PM

It definitely screams small sample size. Doug, have you noticed any difference in his approach which might help explain that gap beyond mere "luck"? Perhaps he's focusing more on putting the ball in play and less on hitting for power, not getting behind in the count, etc.

dougdirt · 10-29-2009, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

It definitely screams small sample size. Doug, have you noticed any difference in his approach which might help explain that gap beyond mere "luck"? Perhaps he's focusing more on putting the ball in play and less on hitting for power, not getting behind in the count, etc.

Well the small sample applies to everything because he has 400 total Pa as a pro. But with runners on he has just about the same sample as with no one on and is doing much better. I haven't seen much of a difference in approach though regardless of the situation.

medford · 10-29-2009, 01:45 PM

Would that be the sign of a guy w/ an advanced understanding of the strike zone? Nobody on, the opposing pitcher might nible a bit, get Alonso to swing at a pitch or 2 out of the zone putting him in more pitchers counts?. Runners on, and the oppossing pitcher has to be aggressive and Alonso sees more pitches he's capable of hitting, and takes advantage of those hitable pitchers? Perhaps he has solid bat control and can take advantage of the holes in the infield created by runners on 1st base and whatnot????

Or perhaps he's just clutch

dougdirt · 10-29-2009, 04:12 PM

Cozart has a double in his first at bat and its pushed his average to .351 out in Arizona.

mth123 · 10-31-2009, 10:55 AM

Some things of interest on Oct 30:

Heisey hits lead-off and played LF (where he may have a shot with the big league team in 2010). He went 1 for 4 with a BB and a SB.
Alonso went 3 for 5 with a triple as a DH.
Cozart played 2B (added versatility for a big league role?) and went 1 for 4 with a BB (and was picked-off).
Boxberger started and went 3 innings allowing 3 ER, allowed 3 Hits a walk, K'd 3 and allowed a HR. His stiff might be good, but he's getting hit.
Ondrusek pitched a perfect inning with a K and picked up the win. He's righted the ship after a poor start where he gave up 3 HR in 1.2 IP.

dougdirt · 10-31-2009, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

Some things of interest on Oct 30:
Cozart played 2B (added versatility for a big league role?) and went 1 for 4 with a BB (and was picked-off).

The team has no actual 2B. It has 4 shortstops. They just plug those guys in at 2B. Don't read anything into it.

jmcclain19 · 11-01-2009, 01:38 AM

Cozart played 2b today. Quite well actually.

Heisey was in CF but didn't get much but run of the mill action.

Alonso booted an easy one at first then in the same inning leaped to knock a ball down that was a guaranteed double. All three worked the count hard today but the early starter was really laboring.

RED VAN HOT · 11-01-2009, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Alonso's splits with runners on/none on are incredible.

Code:

	AB	H	2B	HR	W	HP	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
None On	185	46	16	4	25	0	34	.249	.338	.400	.738
Men On	148	51	10	6	23	0	20	.345	.420	.534	.954
RISP	77	28	4	6	12	0	8	.364	.426	.649	1.075

A note on significance and small sample size.

Adding the AB's and hits yields an overall BA of .2913. If we take this as a true measure of Alonso's average, then we can ask if the differences in None On vs Men On could be attributable to chance. By my calculations, the probability of a .291 hitter batting safely no more than 46 times in 185 AB's (independent trials) is about .115. The probability of batting safely at least 51 times in 148 AB's is about .092. Neither number meets a level usually considered statistically significant. Should the current trend (splits) persist for another 220 AB's, it would reach those levels.

It bears watching. Like most posters, I have my own theories about an extreme difference in batting proficiency with men on base.

Kingspoint · 11-04-2009, 06:42 PM

Alonso's had the reputation of an RBI-machine for the past 6 years. This is nothing new. 6-years is not a small sample size.

As someone had to remind us though, it's irrelevant if Dusty's determined to ruin the team for a 3rd year in a row by batting guys in the 1-2 positions who can't get on base. Votto was excellent at driving runs in w/ RISP this season, but his chances were so few he wasn't even a blip on the RBI-radar screen at the end of the season.

Kingspoint · 11-04-2009, 06:46 PM

I notice Alonso only has 4 K's and 3 BB's in 53 PA's so far. Seems to me that he's working on something down there (isn't that what the instructional league is for?), and consequently, what the overall results are in 53 PA's is irrelevant.

10-28-2009, 07:40 PM	#167
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,723	Re: First AFL Box score Yonder Alonso went 2-4 today. Chris Heisey went 0-3 with 2 walks. __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

10-28-2009, 10:14 PM	#168
11larkin11 Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Bellefontaine,OH Posts: 2,287	Re: First AFL Box score I've seemed to notice that Alonso has a penchant for driving in runs when he's in position to. I don't have any stats to back it up. It just seems following him this year in High A, AA, and even maybe in AAA, can't remember, and even now in the AFL, it seems every time he has an RBI situation, he drives the run in. He also seems to have a lot of sac flies. __________________ Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto ---TRF "I do what I want to do and say what I want to say." --Bronson Arroyo

10-29-2009, 12:08 PM	#171
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,919	Re: First AFL Box score It definitely screams small sample size. Doug, have you noticed any difference in his approach which might help explain that gap beyond mere "luck"? Perhaps he's focusing more on putting the ball in play and less on hitting for power, not getting behind in the count, etc. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

10-29-2009, 01:45 PM	#173
medford Member Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,037	Re: First AFL Box score Would that be the sign of a guy w/ an advanced understanding of the strike zone? Nobody on, the opposing pitcher might nible a bit, get Alonso to swing at a pitch or 2 out of the zone putting him in more pitchers counts?. Runners on, and the oppossing pitcher has to be aggressive and Alonso sees more pitches he's capable of hitting, and takes advantage of those hitable pitchers? Perhaps he has solid bat control and can take advantage of the holes in the infield created by runners on 1st base and whatnot???? Or perhaps he's just clutch

10-29-2009, 04:12 PM	#174
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,723	Re: First AFL Box score Cozart has a double in his first at bat and its pushed his average to .351 out in Arizona. __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

10-31-2009, 10:55 AM	#175
mth123 The Big Dog Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 12,685	Re: First AFL Box score Some things of interest on Oct 30: Heisey hits lead-off and played LF (where he may have a shot with the big league team in 2010). He went 1 for 4 with a BB and a SB. Alonso went 3 for 5 with a triple as a DH. Cozart played 2B (added versatility for a big league role?) and went 1 for 4 with a BB (and was picked-off). Boxberger started and went 3 innings allowing 3 ER, allowed 3 Hits a walk, K'd 3 and allowed a HR. His stiff might be good, but he's getting hit. Ondrusek pitched a perfect inning with a K and picked up the win. He's righted the ship after a poor start where he gave up 3 HR in 1.2 IP. __________________ "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS Last edited by mth123; 10-31-2009 at 10:59 AM.

11-01-2009, 01:38 AM	#177
jmcclain19 Smells Like Teen Spirit Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Phoenix Posts: 6,486	Re: First AFL Box score Cozart played 2b today. Quite well actually. Heisey was in CF but didn't get much but run of the mill action. Alonso booted an easy one at first then in the same inning leaped to knock a ball down that was a guaranteed double. All three worked the count hard today but the early starter was really laboring.

11-04-2009, 06:42 PM	#179
Kingspoint Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: All over Posts: 6,940	Re: First AFL Box score Alonso's had the reputation of an RBI-machine for the past 6 years. This is nothing new. 6-years is not a small sample size. As someone had to remind us though, it's irrelevant if Dusty's determined to ruin the team for a 3rd year in a row by batting guys in the 1-2 positions who can't get on base. Votto was excellent at driving runs in w/ RISP this season, but his chances were so few he wasn't even a blip on the RBI-radar screen at the end of the season. Last edited by Kingspoint; 11-04-2009 at 06:44 PM.

11-04-2009, 06:46 PM	#180
Kingspoint Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: All over Posts: 6,940	Re: First AFL Box score I notice Alonso only has 4 K's and 3 BB's in 53 PA's so far. Seems to me that he's working on something down there (isn't that what the instructional league is for?), and consequently, what the overall results are in 53 PA's is irrelevant.

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