Who Do You Want to See Cut?

[lollipopcurve]

You're going to have several "organization players" at each level. I don't see the point of taking sides concerning which guys take on those roles. It's not like there's a long line of (healthy) players waiting to join these teams. If the Reds were insisting on a crew of 30s-something vets at Louisville while prospects bottlenecked below, I could see it. But the organization has done a solid job in the last few years of getting younger throughout, so I don't find myself growing impatient for an overhaul.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

Depending on the health of some guys, its going to be pretty crowded in the high minors.

In AAA the rotation will probably include Wood, Jukich, Lecure, Klinker and a reclamation project/vet for insurance. The pen looks to include one of Fisher or Ramirez, with Viola, Ondrusek, Del Rosario, Thompson, Watson and Bray. At AA, the rotation might include Horst, Buck, Smith, Smit and Avery or Carroll. The pen probably has Valiquette, Krebs, Thurman, Geronimo, Medina, Carroll or one of the other starters, maybe Pawelek. Guys like Castro, Infante, Joseph, Leake, Boxberger and Fairel will all hit those levels at some point. Terrell Young probably fits in somewhere. Below AA the team needs room for some younger guys like Serrano, Pearl, Sulbarren, Tuttle, Lotzkar, etc.

I just like all those guys better than Tabor and Lutz, but they could be kept around until spring for sure. Some of these are bound to come up lame and others could be dealt off or promoted to backfill for some one else who is dealt which might leave room for a guy like Tabor. Some may be lost in the minor league portion of rule 5. I'd just like to see the Reds bring a starter or two in for AAA as insurance for the big league team and as a lottery ticket for finding a guy (I'm talking about major leaguers who will probably be available on the cheap and need a restart like Noah Lowry, Boof Bonser, etc). That may push guys like Smit, Avery and Lecure to the pen. Lutz and Tabor just don't fit in the numbers game IMO if all those guys are back and pitching.

I guess I just see Lutz as a better eventual arm than most of those current upper level guys. Once a top closing prospect considered as high as a potential 2nd round selection, and even though he hasn't yet put it all together he's had but one poor season. The injuries may eventually derail him but until they do or he self implodes I can't see giving up on him.

A handful of notable players slipped to the second day, after being considered top-round talents. George Washington righty Derrick Lutz was the 84th-rated prospect by Baseball America, but was a 19th-round pick by Cincinnati. Lutz had a dominant summer in the Cape Cod League last summer, allowing no earned runs in 25 innings, but struggled this season with elbow tendinitis and his velocity suffered.

I guess I just don't see several of the guys you listed to keep ahead of him as eventually being as good or better. But I'd be real interested to see why you would rather keep Watson, Geronimo, Smit, Avery for example ahead of him at this point?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I guess I just see Lutz as a better eventual arm than most of those current upper level guys. Once a top closing prospect considered as high as a potential 2nd round selection, and even though he hasn't yet put it all together he's had but one poor season. The injuries may eventually derail him but until they do or he self implodes I can't see giving up on him.



I guess I just don't see several of the guys you listed to keep ahead of him as eventually being as good or better. But I'd be real interested to see why you would rather keep Watson, Geronimo, Smit, Avery for example ahead of him at this point?

Watson is probably in the same boat as Lutz. Second Round pick with a good arm and needs some sustained success. Smit and Avery have been starters and while I think they are probably both relievers if they have any future at all, having been a starter gives them the nod IMO. Guys like Geronimo and Medina are probably in the same boat as Lutz and Tabor and it will probably be tough for the team to keep them. Personally with Arroyo and Harang both probably in their last season, I'd like to see a spot or two to try and find a reclamation starter. I'm not high on any of the high minor league starters at this point (including Wood) and in 2011 I see Bailey, Volquez and Cueto as the core of the rotation. Maloney is a possible fourth (I'm a skeptic) and I'd really like to see a vet added on the cheap. Those reclamation vets are long shots, but they have a better chance of helping a big league team than Tabor, Lutz, Geronimo and Medina IMO.

[redsfan10]

Im with you on Medina and Geronimo, but I disagree with your opinion on Lutz and Tabor. I find it hard to believe that the Reds would throw an arm like Lutzs to the side after putting up pretty decent numbers before his injury. As for Tabor, he came off of an injury and showed alot of versatility (reliever and starter) when the system was hampered with injuries this season.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

Watson is probably in the same boat as Lutz. Second Round pick with a good arm and needs some sustained success. Smit and Avery have been starters and while I think they are probably both relievers if they have any future at all, having been a starter gives them the nod IMO. Guys like Geronimo and Medina are probably in the same boat as Lutz and Tabor and it will probably be tough for the team to keep them. Personally with Arroyo and Harang both probably in their last season, I'd like to see a spot or two to try and find a reclamation starter. I'm not high on any of the high minor league starters at this point (including Wood) and in 2011 I see Bailey, Volquez and Cueto as the core of the rotation. Maloney is a possible fourth (I'm a skeptic) and I'd really like to see a vet added on the cheap. Those reclamation vets are long shots, but they have a better chance of helping a big league team than Tabor, Lutz, Geronimo and Medina IMO.

I see your reasoning but as you point out it's not like we are super rich with arms. We can't just start tossing promising ones overboard just yet IMO. The guy has 4 seasons with us and 3 of them have been sub 3.00 era so he has the production and his ceiling is still relatively high as a relief arm goes as his stuff is better than most of those aforementioned types. I'm all for cutting a couple of guys who are getting by with guile and moxy for some talent (Bonser I like) but keep the little talent we do have.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by mth123

Depending on the health of some guys, its going to be pretty crowded in the high minors.

In AAA the rotation will probably include Wood, Jukich, Lecure, Klinker and a reclamation project/vet for insurance. The pen looks to include one of Fisher or Ramirez, with Viola, Ondrusek, Del Rosario, Thompson, Watson and Bray. At AA, the rotation might include Horst, Buck, Smith, Smit and Avery or Carroll. The pen probably has Valiquette, Krebs, Thurman, Geronimo, Medina, Carroll or one of the other starters, maybe Pawelek. Guys like Castro, Infante, Joseph, Leake, Boxberger and Fairel will all hit those levels at some point. Terrell Young probably fits in somewhere. Below AA the team needs room for some younger guys like Serrano, Pearl, Sulbarren, Tuttle, Lotzkar, etc.

I just like all those guys better than Tabor and Lutz, but they could be kept around until spring for sure. Some of these are bound to come up lame and others could be dealt off or promoted to backfill for some one else who is dealt which might leave room for a guy like Tabor. Some may be lost in the minor league portion of rule 5. I'd just like to see the Reds bring a starter or two in for AAA as insurance for the big league team and as a lottery ticket for finding a guy (I'm talking about major leaguers who will probably be available on the cheap and need a restart like Noah Lowry, Boof Bonser, etc). That may push guys like Smit, Avery and Lecure to the pen. Lutz and Tabor just don't fit in the numbers game IMO if all those guys are back and pitching.

I thought Rosario might end up in the rotation down there?