Who is Redszone's #8 prospect?

[OnBaseMachine]

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Mike Leake
Prospect #3 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #4 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #5 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #6 - Travis Wood
Prospect #7 - Chris Heisey

[mace]

Thanks for adding Ondrusek. Next: Miguel Rojas?

[Brutus]

I have Cozart here, though Juan Silva will be next for me. I only give the nod to Cozart because he's more established, and Silva is still pretty raw.

[dougdirt]

I am taking Boxberger. I think he has more upside than any pitcher in the minor leagues, even though I also think he has a ways to go to reach it. His raw stuff is better than anyone else we have though.

[tbball10]

I voted for Soto, because he is still young and is just one year removed from hammering the MWL (although for only games) as a 19-yr old. He will only be 21 when ST starts, and I expect him to have a big start to the year, away from the FSL, in High-A, with a promotion to AA by June. His defense needs to pick up, or he will become another Reds LF prospect.

[mace]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I have Cozart here, though Juan Silva will be next for me. I only give the nod to Cozart because he's more established, and Silva is still pretty raw.

Silva was close for me, too, but I went with Soto. I also strongly considered Cozart, but I'm not convinced that he's a better SS prospect than Rojas.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Silva was close for me, too, but I went with Soto. I also strongly considered Cozart, but I'm not convinced that he's a better SS prospect than Rojas.

Defense is similar and one is a much better hitter both now and in the future.... how are you not sure that Cozart isn't better than Rojas?

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Defense is similar and one is a much better hitter both now and in the future.... how are you not sure that Cozart isn't better than Rojas?

Well, you'll note, first off, that I didn't make that statement with any degree of conviction. But it was predicated on a few things. One, I get the impression that Rojas's defense is ever-so-slightly better, although that's apparently debatable and maybe negligible. But a slim edge to Rojas. Cozart is reputed to be a better hitter, but Rojas definitely made a push in that direction this year.

Their closest comparison is Rojas's 2009 season in Dayton at age 20 (barely), and Cozart's partial 2007 season in Dayton at age 21 (22 in August). Rojas's OPS was .665, Cozart's (201 PA) was .619. Of course, Cozart improved dramatically (.787) when he repeated Dayton in '08, and fared well in Carolina this year (.758). Rojas, meanwhile, had never hit a lick before this season. But he was very young and very thin (listed now at 160). Most of his production this year came in the latter part of the season. For the last three months or so, he was a pretty darn good hitter. (Among other encouraging things, he rarely struck out.) That stark improvement seems consistent with 1) his physical maturation, and 2) his peerless work ethic, as noted by redsof72 in another thread.

Bottom line: Rojas is 3.5 years younger, a slightly better fielder (arguably), improving faster, and dedicated to the game (not that Cozart isn't). I place a lot of emphasis on a player's learning curve, and for me, Rojas's is promising enough to make it a contest.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Well, you'll note, first off, that I didn't make that statement with any degree of conviction. But it was predicated on a few things. One, I get the impression that Rojas's defense is ever-so-slightly better, although that's apparently debatable and maybe negligible. But a slim edge to Rojas. Cozart is reputed to be a better hitter, but Rojas definitely made a push in that direction this year.

Their closest comparison is Rojas's 2009 season in Dayton at age 20 (barely), and Cozart's partial 2007 season in Dayton at age 21 (22 in August). Rojas's OPS was .665, Cozart's (201 PA) was .619. Of course, Cozart improved dramatically (.787) when he repeated Dayton in '08, and fared well in Carolina this year (.758). Rojas, meanwhile, had never hit a lick before this season. But he was very young and very thin (listed now at 160). Most of his production this year came in the latter part of the season. For the last three months or so, he was a pretty darn good hitter. (Among other encouraging things, he rarely struck out). That stark improvement seems consistent with 1) his physical maturation, and 2) his peerless work ethic, as noted by redsof72 in another thread.

Bottom line: Rojas is 3.5 years younger, a slightly better fielder (arguably), improving faster, and dedicated to the game (not that Cozart isn't). I place a lot of emphasis on a player's learning curve, and for me, Rojas's is promising enough to make it a contest.

Rojas bat, if all goes well, is a .725 OPS bat. His slim defensive edge, if he even has one, isn't going to be able to make up the difference between the two's bats. Cozart projects to hit for some power, a decent average and solid OBP. Rojas will be lucky to hit 5 HR in a single season in his career. His entire offensive performance is going to be reliant on him hitting .280+ because he just has no power at all.

[lollipopcurve]

Rojas bat, if all goes well, is a .725 OPS bat. His slim defensive edge, if he even has one, isn't going to be able to make up the difference between the two's bats. Cozart projects to hit for some power, a decent average and solid OBP. Rojas will be lucky to hit 5 HR in a single season in his career. His entire offensive performance is going to be reliant on him hitting .280+ because he just has no power at all.

You very well may be right. But I would caution against the level of certainty with which you make these judgments. You don't know a whole lot about how these two compare defensively, and Rojas has several years of maturing to do physically. Precipitous judgments re: prospects who are still young often turn out to be wrong.

[nmculbreth]

I went with Cozart.

I like that he plays plus defense at a premier position, has shown the ability to draw a walk and hit for some power (10 HR / 29 2B last year). I'd still like to see him replicate his performance at AAA next season, but he looks like the best bet to help at SS in the entire system.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

You very well may be right. But I would caution against the level of certainty with which you make these judgments. You don't know a whole lot about how these two compare defensively, and Rojas has several years of maturing to do physically. Precipitous judgments re: prospects who are still young often turn out to be wrong.

I do know a whole lot about how the two compare defensively. I have seen them both over 40 times. I have multiple scouting reports on them from multiple sources. Rojas doesn't project to have power. His swing isn't conducive to it and neither is his frame for adding much muscle to improve the power he has now. Its not a 'he needs to learn' thing, its a he doesn't have the body to make it work thing.

[*BaseClogger*]

I think Matt Maloney could step into a MLB rotation right now and be an adequate #4 starter, so he gets my vote...

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Rojas bat, if all goes well, is a .725 OPS bat. His slim defensive edge, if he even has one, isn't going to be able to make up the difference between the two's bats. Cozart projects to hit for some power, a decent average and solid OBP. Rojas will be lucky to hit 5 HR in a single season in his career. His entire offensive performance is going to be reliant on him hitting .280+ because he just has no power at all.

No doubt, Cozart's advantage is power. He also made major advances this year in plate discipline, according to his number of walks. But Rojas stands a fair chance of being a better for-average hitter (he makes great contact), and I suspect that it's way early to judge his power potential. I'm just not convinced that Cozart's chances of being a serviceable big-league hitter outstrip Rojas's by a significant amount. At this point--as I implied in the original post--I'm still leaning toward Cozart. I just think that Rojas is in the photo.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am taking Boxberger. I think he has more upside than any pitcher in the minor leagues, even though I also think he has a ways to go to reach it. His raw stuff is better than anyone else we have though.

Interesting that you like Boxberger this high. I re-read some of the draft time scouting reports on him and I'm becoming convinced that, in the current Reds system, he probably is a top ten guy.

I'm also thinking about Soto for the next pick. Until this year, he seemed to be a possible high average hitter, lots of contact. Hate to downgrade someone too much based on a tough year in a tough league. He's still young and, if he repeats High A next year, I have a good feeling about his bat.

Not too worried about Soto's lack of walks just yet, or his defense. Seems to make a lot of contact.