Who is Redszone's #11 Prospect?

[texasdave]

Donnie Joseph get ready. I'm looking at you next.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Most scouts believe that Matt Maloney can be a #4 starter. I think you extremely undervalue what 180 innings of 4.60 ERA is worth to a baseball team.

That's where you are wrong. I wouldn't have a problem with Maloney if I believed he would ever put up numbers like that for the Reds. I don't believe he will. Does Baseball America agree with "most scouts?" I guess Wednesday we will see if Baseball America puts him in the top 10. They may sneak him up close to 15th...I personally think the Reds have 15+ prospects (including additional pitchers) that I would rather count on than Matt Maloney. Let some other team "reap the benefits" of his future if he is rated this high by "most scouts." If he was highly thought of by other teams, he would be traded for something worthwhile.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Bum you do know that Maloney had a sub 5.00 ERA this season with the Reds don't you?

[Bumstead]

Uh...yeah...how many innings was that? 180 or 40? If I'm wrong, I will still be around to be reminded.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Uh...yeah...how many innings was that? 180 or 40? If I'm wrong, I will still be around to be reminded.

Bum

What suggested that those innings couldn't be replicated though?

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

What suggested that those innings couldn't be replicated though?

I could turn that around and ask you why you would rely on such a small sample size for a pitcher that isn't exactly young to be a prospect?

Part of it is I just don't believe that he can do it...my eyes again...crazy...There is that HR% (he was on Milton pace for HR's allowed) and if I'm reading the stats correctly (quickly) the GB% vs. FB% in Great America Ballpark is going to be a problem. Flyball pitchers go there to die.

It's my opinion, I'm not going to change my mind based on 40 IP for a pitching "prospect" that will be 26 years old on opening day. Shouldn't a 25 year-old be good at AAA even if he just has marginal talent and is facing inferior hitters in his 3rd season pitching in the league? I mean, I never said he wasn't smart.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I could turn that around and ask you why you would rely on such a small sample size for a pitcher that isn't exactly young to be a prospect?

Part of it is I just don't believe that he can do it...my eyes again...crazy...There is that HR% (he was on Milton pace for HR's allowed) and if I'm reading the stats correctly (quickly) the GB% vs. FB% in Great America Ballpark is going to be a problem. Flyball pitchers go there to die.

It's my opinion, I'm not going to change my mind based on 40 IP for a pitching "prospect" that will be 26 years old on opening day. Shouldn't a 25 year-old be good at AAA even if he just has marginal talent and is facing inferior hitters in his 3rd season pitching in the league? I mean, I never said he wasn't smart.

Bum

I don't care about his age really. His time in the majors doesn't change how I feel about him. His stuff/control suggests he is a good bet to be a #4 starter. While I do think he will give up 30 HR a year because of his GB tendencies, that isn't a problem as much as it is for some guys because he does not walk guys. At all. Harang and Arroyo both give up a similar number of HR's and perform just fine because they don't walk batters, thus keeping the WHIP down and causing the HR's to score fewer runs.

Basically Maloney projects to be a guy who can pitch 180 innings, walk 40 batters, strike out 120 and give up 30 HR's. The HR rate is the only thing to be concerned about. Its going to be high. But the rest of his numbers are going to look good and its going to balance things out.

[GOYA]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While I do think he will give up 30 HR a year because of his GB tendencies, that isn't a problem as much as it is for some guys because he does not walk guys. At all. Harang and Arroyo both give up a similar number of HR's and perform just fine because they don't walk batters, thus keeping the WHIP down and causing the HR's to score fewer runs.

Sounds like Tom Browning's gameplan. But if Maloney can approach Browning's success, I'll be happily surprised. I see him as a solid #5.

[Bumstead]

Tom Browning won 20 games at age 25...Almost all "prospects" that are going to be anything more than bit players have at least one full season in by the time they are 25...to say that his age is not a factor is to ignore "prospects" throughout the history of baseball. Lilly had a full season + at age 25, Suppan at 22, Washburn 23, Dempster 22, Randy Wolf 22, Brian Moehler 25, all mediocre starters mostly LHP's...find a true "prospect" that has his first full season starting at age 26 or later (and is productive for 8 or so years) and you have indeed found the exception to the rule. To ignore his age is to be naive.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Tom Browning won 20 games at age 25...Almost all "prospects" that are going to be anything more than bit players have at least one full season in by the time they are 25...to say that his age is not a factor is to ignore "prospects" throughout the history of baseball. Lilly had a full season + at age 25, Suppan at 22, Washburn 23, Dempster 22, Randy Wolf 22, Brian Moehler 25, all mediocre starters mostly LHP's...find a true "prospect" that has his first full season starting at age 26 or later (and is productive for 8 or so years) and you have indeed found the exception to the rule. To ignore his age is to be naive.

Bum

In general I take age into it.... but in most other organizations Maloney would have had plenty of MLB time already. The Reds system just presented itself with too many other options the last two seasons between Johnny Cueto/Homer Bailey that got the 'bring a rookie up' chances.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

In general I take age into it.... but in most other organizations Maloney would have had plenty of MLB time already. The Reds system just presented itself with too many other options the last two seasons between Johnny Cueto/Homer Bailey that got the 'bring a rookie up' chances.

I don't think Maloney would have gotten much more of an opportunity on any team other than maybe Washington. It's not like the Reds pitching has been awesome and injury free. Plenty of openings for Maloney to get in if he was really a "prospect." Find 10 guys that pitched their first full season at 26 years old (non-Cuban or Japanese) and turned into a 4th starter for more than a couple of years. It doesn't happen.

Like I said, I will be around for you to say "I told you so" should Maloney become the exception.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I don't think Maloney would have gotten much more of an opportunity on any team other than maybe Washington. It's not like the Reds pitching has been awesome and injury free. Plenty of openings for Maloney to get in if he was really a "prospect." Find 10 guys that pitched their first full season at 26 years old (non-Cuban or Japanese) and turned into a 4th starter for more than a couple of years. It doesn't happen.

Like I said, I will be around for you to say "I told you so" should Maloney become the exception.

Bum

The Reds have had Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Owings all year in the rotation this season. They didn't have room for Maloney most of the year. Last year it was Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez and then a mix of other guys who had 'need' before Maloney because of options. I won't be around to say I told you so though.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I won't be around to say I told you so though.

Well then, what fun will that be? Who else will debate with me without just stopping and thinking I'm an idiot? :

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Well then, what fun will that be? Who else will debate with me without just stopping and thinking I'm an idiot? :

Bum

Oh I will debate you on it still, I just won't be saying I told you so. By the way, solid comp on the age thing that I like is JA Happ. Not exactly the same kind of stuff, but both are tall lefties who are flyball pitchers. Happ was pretty lucky this year, but I see Maloney with similar strikeout rates and fewer walks than Happ had this year as a 26 year old rookie.

[RED VAN HOT]

My view on Maloney was that he would be an effective ML pitcher with a team having a big ball park. I did not believe that the Reds would tolerate a painful learning curve in GABP while he learned to pinpoint a slider that finished just below the strike zone for his out pitch. This past season, however, may have proved me wrong. I did not see all of his innings for the Reds, but he did seem to be keeping the ball down better. The HR's, still too many, came on clear mistakes when he left pitches belt high. The Reds were very patient in allowing the learning curve to occur in AAA.

Despite Maloney's age, I think his ceiling is still high. Lefties can take a long time to develop. At the completion of his 28 YO season, Cliff Lee had a 4.63 ERA and an unremarkable K/9. For all their work in developing him, the Indians got 1.5 good seasons in return. For a small market team, not having him on the ML roster early in his career can be a good thing.

I hope Maloney makes the starting rotation this year. My concern is that he is a slow starter and the AZ is a notorious hitter's league.