Who is Redszone's #16 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Red Daddy

I understand what you're saying. He is not an ideal prospect, but he certainly has the chance to take off this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in AA by the end of the year. He probably could have played at a higher level this year, but the Reds didn't want to risk it.

Oh I think he will be in AA by July at the latest. With his age and polish he should eat up A+ for sure. I think he could reach AAA by years end if the Reds want to push him like his age suggests he should be.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well if we use at bats, then Silva was much higher. I use plate appearances though.

Stat comparison for the ones that actually matter (hint: OPS isn't one of them)

Player	         BB%	K%	IsoP	Level
Mesoraco	9.80%	21.30%	.153	A+
Silva	       12.70%	27.10%	.182	Rookie

I will take Mesoraco's plate discipline because he struck out much less at a much higher level and still have a strong walk rate. Power leans toward Silva right now. Both guys were young for their levels, so no advantage there. Catcher is a much tougher position than corner outfield, so Mesoraco gets an advantage there. Silva has more speed.

And Mesoraco also walked less. It looks to be a bit more even. Sure, Mes does play a more premium position, but I'd say Silva is the better prospect at this moment.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

And Mesoraco also walked less. It looks to be a bit more even. Sure, Mes does play a more premium position, but I'd say Silva is the better prospect at this moment.

Sure he walked less, but he was also facing pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to. Silva may have more potential at the plate if we toss out positions (which we shouldn't do), but when we account for positions I don't think Silva has more potential in his bat at all.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sure he walked less, but he was also facing pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to. Silva may have more potential at the plate if we toss out positions (which we shouldn't do), but when we account for positions I don't think Silva has more potential in his bat at all.

It depends on if Silva is a legit CF or not. If he is, then his numbers at the plate as a rookie are impressive. If he's not, then it's not as impressive.

Mesoraco really has yet to prove anything at the plate (unless you consider his .710 OPS at Dayton a huge victory). Silva's numbers in rookie ball were much better than Mes' and he did it at 18 instead of 19 in the same league with approximately the same number of plate appearences. Sure, small sample size...but I like the way Silva projects better.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

It depends on if Silva is a legit CF or not. If he is, then his numbers at the plate as a rookie are impressive. If he's not, then it's not as impressive.

Mesoraco really has yet to prove anything at the plate (unless you consider his .710 OPS at Dayton a huge victory). Silva's numbers in rookie ball were much better than Mes' and he did it at 18 instead of 19 in the same league with approximately the same number of plate appearences. Sure, small sample size...but I like the way Silva projects better.

I don't think I have talked to anyone who see's Silva staying in CF. I don't pay much attention to a guys OPS as much as I pay attention to their rates at which they hit for power, walk and strikeout. Given how BABIP can cause havok on a guys OBP and SLG, its far down my list on things to look at. Mesoraco has had solid peripherals even if the slash stats haven't looked good.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Silva's swing. I think there is some good potential in his bat. I just don't think he is a better prospect than a catcher who has good defense and strong peripherals that is 3 levels higher than him while still being young for his level.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think I have talked to anyone who see's Silva staying in CF. I don't pay much attention to a guys OPS as much as I pay attention to their rates at which they hit for power, walk and strikeout. Given how BABIP can cause havok on a guys OBP and SLG, its far down my list on things to look at. Mesoraco has had solid peripherals even if the slash stats haven't looked good.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Silva's swing. I think there is some good potential in his bat. I just don't think he is a better prospect than a catcher who has good defense and strong peripherals that is 3 levels higher than him while still being young for his level.

I might agree with you on the SLG part, but I think OBP is certainly important to watch and Mez, at any level, has yet to show that he can consistently get on at a good clip while cutting down on the Ks. I don't think Mez has proven much of anything yet. He needs to put together a solid and consistent season first before I become a believer. He does have age on his side though.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I might agree with you on the SLG part, but I think OBP is certainly important to watch and Mez, at any level, has yet to show that he can consistently get on at a good clip while cutting down on the Ks. I don't think Mez has proven much of anything yet. He needs to put together a solid and consistent season first before I become a believer. He does have age on his side though.

BABIP certainly has something to do with OBP% also.

The way I see it with Mes is he's constantly fighting against the current. He's always being pushed forward to a level at which he is not yet quite ready to be at. Until he sinks (which despite the slash lines he hasn't) or swims his future isn't determined. I know some want to think treading water is sinking but I don't. That said it's not yet swimming either and Silva tossed right into the current seemed to come out swimming from the get go, certainly is something to appreciate. Doug makes a great argument for Mes IMO but bottomline is Mes must reward my faith in him at some point and at least doggey paddle. Until then give me Silva or maybe even better yet Dorn who I feel can hit major league pitching if given the chance.

That said Dorn has little chance to win so I'll go with Silva.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I might agree with you on the SLG part, but I think OBP is certainly important to watch and Mez, at any level, has yet to show that he can consistently get on at a good clip while cutting down on the Ks. I don't think Mez has proven much of anything yet. He needs to put together a solid and consistent season first before I become a believer. He does have age on his side though.

Certainly OBP is important, but BABIP has cost Devin AVG/Hits, thus making his OBP lower. If you gave Mesoraco a .300 BABIP this season he would have posted a .331 OBP this past season. Not anything great of course, but certainly better than what he has been posting. The key thing is how the power develops. If he can be a 15-20 HR guy and keep his K/BB rates and a .290 BABIP he should be a decent hitter for a catcher. I don't know, I just put more into peripherals as a players skillset than slash stats.

[chicoruiz]

I went off the reservation a bit and voted for Donnie Joseph. I'm not sure he's the best prospect remaining, but I think he deserves to be at least in the conversation.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Certainly OBP is important, but BABIP has cost Devin AVG/Hits, thus making his OBP lower. If you gave Mesoraco a .300 BABIP this season he would have posted a .331 OBP this past season. Not anything great of course, but certainly better than what he has been posting. The key thing is how the power develops. If he can be a 15-20 HR guy and keep his K/BB rates and a .290 BABIP he should be a decent hitter for a catcher. I don't know, I just put more into peripherals as a players skillset than slash stats.

This is a bit off topic, but can defensive positioning be accounted for in BABIP? For example, assume a player's hit charts shows that a player is an extreme pull hitter and to account for that the defense shifts accordingly, wouldn't that possibly result in a lower BABIP that doesn't necessary reflect bad luck?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Orenda

This is a bit off topic, but can defensive positioning be accounted for in BABIP? For example, assume a player's hit charts shows that a player is an extreme pull hitter and to account for that the defense shifts accordingly, wouldn't that possibly result in a lower BABIP that doesn't necessary reflect bad luck?

It certainly can cause a change in it. However I don't think we see the shift in the minor leagues much at all.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It certainly can cause a change in it. However I don't think we see the shift in the minor leagues much at all.

Your right that's probably more of a MLB question. But I was also wondering about the validity of reported statistics in the minor leagues. For example I know I've seen you post line drive% and other supporting peripherals in your analysis of minor league players which help to paint a more complete picture of a prospect. But who collects? and how is that information collected? For example, line drive percentage could be pretty subjective depending on who was collecting the data. Do the scouts and minor league staff of the Reds collect all of that, or is it available from independent sources.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Orenda

Your right that's probably more of a MLB question. But I was also wondering about the validity of reported statistics in the minor leagues. For example I know I've seen you post line drive% and other supporting peripherals in your analysis of minor league players which help to paint a more complete picture of a prospect. But who collects? and how is that information collected? For example, line drive percentage could be pretty subjective depending on who was collecting the data. Do the scouts and minor league staff of the Reds collect all of that, or is it available from independent sources.

There are stringers at each game who input the data for MLB/Milb.com for the 'GameDay' application. While they don't offer it on the page for lower minor leagues (currently only in AA and AAA), if you know the code you can get the lower level games. The guys are obviously going to have a differing opinion for home/road games, but at the end of the day it generally evens itself out. Every now and again you will see a few outliers to that data, but it isn't very often.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

There are stringers at each game who input the data for MLB/Milb.com for the 'GameDay' application. While they don't offer it on the page for lower minor leagues (currently only in AA and AAA), if you know the code you can get the lower level games. The guys are obviously going to have a differing opinion for home/road games, but at the end of the day it generally evens itself out. Every now and again you will see a few outliers to that data, but it isn't very often.

Thanks. Just curious.

[HokieRed]

Mesoraco, and it seems to me the next couple are still going to be fairly clear. After that, I'd like to have some information on the injuries to Lotzkar and Hildenbrandt, as I still think that, if they are completely recovered, they've got enough upside to make them credible picks in our 20's. Anybody have any information on those guys' condition? Thanks.