Who is Redszone's #18 prospect?

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Fellhauer. Right now he looks to be the better major leaguer, even though I don't think his upside is high, he is a TON safer of a bet while still having a solid upside.

Fair enough I will take Silva and his upside.

[Red Daddy]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

Fair enough I will take Silva and his upside.

Hey Lockdown, good news!!! I found scouting reports on the baseball cube. Here they are!!!


Round 7, 209th overall, OF Joshua Fellhauer: A junior at college baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, Fellhauer batted .399 with six homers and 55 RBIs in 58 games this season. What was most interesting was that he was hit by 16 pitches while drawing 26 walks with only 25 strikeouts. He bats and throws left-handed.

Round 8, 239th overall, OF Juan Silva: Buckley liked Silva's tools and is a strong, athletic center fielder from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy.


WOW!!! Major scouting on Silva. Buckley liked his tools. Now I really know everything I need to know on Silva. Seriously, this scouting report and his low rookie stats are all I have to go on with Silva. I'm a little confused with Serrano et al still on the board.

[Scrap Irony]

Cline pitched really, really well, albeit in the lowest rung of the minor league ladder. He's also a high draft choice with quality stuff. At this point, he's a nice guy to plug in at #18.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

But his higher OBP is based on a .400 BABIP. His slugging is more of the same (IsoP's were within .010 of each other, meaning the power difference was next to zero difference). While Silva did have the better walk rate, his overall plate discipline was much worse. Silva does have better speed, I will give him that one.

To make note of just how much BABIP comes into play with these two guys, lets just swap BABIP between them and see how the lines play out.

Fellhauer with Silva's BABIP would have hit .356/.420/.530. Silva with Fellhauers BABIP would have hit .217/.317/.399.

The difference was, Fellhauers BABIP was .300, what you would expect guys to be at. Silva doesn't look so hot with a normal BABIP does he with that.716 OPS. The kid has tools and the beginnings of a nice swing, so don't get me wrong. I like him plenty, but his performance this year wasn't anything special outside of some incredible luck that took his line from average to excellent.

Nice magic trick there Doug too bad it's not possible to switch BABIP. Let me ask you how much of Silva's BABIP do you attribute to luck? How much of that is talent/skill? Silva had the better IsoP and IsoD and let's not downplay the difference there when one is 18 and the other is 21, that .010 looks a little bigger considering age. Of course I understand that alot of his numbers are driven by that high BABIP which isn't sustainable, but it doesn't have to be for him to be the better prospect. I agree Silva has the higher ceiling, I agree Fellhauer has the higher floor but I disagree that the difference is as far apart as you think it is. Fellhauer's speed is reportedly marginal for CF and if so he is not an everyday player. Silva doesn't have to stick in CF to be an everyday player.

[mace]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Cline pitched really, really well, albeit in the lowest rung of the minor league ladder. He's also a high draft choice with quality stuff. At this point, he's a nice guy to plug in at #18.

I agree. I didn't vote for Cline, and I'm not sure when I will, but he showed a lot this year. His problem, I think (in terms of this poll, which really isn't a problem at all) is that his votes will be split with guys like Jacob Johnson and Nathan Driessen and possibly Ezequiel Infante, Evan Hildenbrandt and even Kyle Lotzkar. But especially Johnson and Driessen, who have fairly similar profiles.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mace

I agree. I didn't vote for Cline, and I'm not sure when I will, but he showed a lot this year. His problem, I think (in terms of this poll, which really isn't a problem at all) is that his votes will be split with guys like Jacob Johnson and Nathan Driessen and possibly Ezequiel Infante, Evan Hildenbrandt and even Kyle Lotzkar. But especially Johnson and Driessen, who have fairly similar profiles.

Yeah Infante is a guy that interests me I saw him in a recent ranking as our #10 prospect. Certainly surprised me to see that but I don't know enough about him to say one way or the other if he should be more highly thought of or not. These lower level guys (especially the arms) are tough to get a read on without a scouting report. Anyone have any info on what he throws?

[HokieRed]

I think we might consider adding our new guy, Douglas Salinas, to the list.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I think we might consider adding our new guy, Douglas Salinas, to the list.

Doesn't Salinas have to stay on the major league 25 man roster for the whole 2010 season?

Sorry just saw he was taken in the AA phase of the draft.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Nice magic trick there Doug too bad it's not possible to switch BABIP. Let me ask you how much of Silva's BABIP do you attribute to luck? How much of that is talent/skill? Silva had the better IsoP and IsoD and let's not downplay the difference there when one is 18 and the other is 21, that .010 looks a little bigger considering age. Of course I understand that alot of his numbers are driven by that high BABIP which isn't sustainable, but it doesn't have to be for him to be the better prospect. I agree Silva has the higher ceiling, I agree Fellhauer has the higher floor but I disagree that the difference is as far apart as you think it is. Fellhauer's speed is reportedly marginal for CF and if so he is not an everyday player. Silva doesn't have to stick in CF to be an everyday player.

No one has the skill to have a BABIP of .400 consistently. Its never been done. I also would argue that guys striking out 27% of the time don't have some ability to control their BABIP to the point that a few select guys have had in the past.

I am not going to downplay his IsoD being better, but comparing the full plate discipline package its not close. Fellhauer doesn't have the speed that Silva does, but he also can stick in CF as long as he doesn't lose the speed he has now. He won't be an above average defender, but he can get the job done out there.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Yeah Infante is a guy that interests me I saw him in a recent ranking as our #10 prospect. Certainly surprised me to see that but I don't know enough about him to say one way or the other if he should be more highly thought of or not. These lower level guys (especially the arms) are tough to get a read on without a scouting report. Anyone have any info on what he throws?

Where did you see that ranking at? Infante is a solid prospect, but he is in no way, shape or form our #10 guy. He has an average fastball and good control right now.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No one has the skill to have a BABIP of .400 consistently. Its never been done. I also would argue that guys striking out 27% of the time don't have some ability to control their BABIP to the point that a few select guys have had in the past.

I am not going to downplay his IsoD being better, but comparing the full plate discipline package its not close. Fellhauer doesn't have the speed that Silva does, but he also can stick in CF as long as he doesn't lose the speed he has now. He won't be an above average defender, but he can get the job done out there.

Didn't you tell me awhile back that Silva may not stick in CF due to speed/range? Fellhauer isn't as fast and you think he can stick there? Silva is gonna grow out of CF then? Count me skeptical that things play out like that.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Where did you see that ranking at? Infante is a solid prospect, but he is in no way, shape or form our #10 guy. He has an average fastball and good control right now.

Here

Link

1 - Alonso
2 - Frazier
3 - Francisco
4 - Heisey
5 - Wood
6 - Leake
7 - Sulbaran
8 - Yorman
9 - Cozart
10 - Infante

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Didn't you tell me awhile back that Silva may not stick in CF due to speed/range? Fellhauer isn't as fast and you think he can stick there? Silva is gonna grow out of CF then? Count me skeptical that things play out like that.

I may have, but I think Silva is going to grow into his body more, thus losing some speed and range. I don't think Fellhauer gets much bigger at all, thus retaining his current speed and range.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Here

Link

1 - Alonso
2 - Frazier
3 - Francisco
4 - Heisey
5 - Wood
6 - Leake
7 - Sulbaran
8 - Yorman
9 - Cozart
10 - Infante

TPA was started by baseball card collectors on the Beckett.com message boards. Their rankings tend to be influenced by baseball cards than actual prospect rankings. I have spent many a years discussion prospects with JP who did the list. He used to ranks solely on ceiling. He has clearly backed off of that some. My guess is he has some incorrect info on Infante if that is where he ranks him at.