Prospect #22 runoff vote

[OnBaseMachine]

Miguel Rojas or Jordan Smith?

[vottofan4life]

Miguel Rojas

[dougdirt]

I will take Rojas, especially after the Reds began talking about using Smith in the bullpen.

[Kc61]

Rojas played at Dayton at age 20 last year and showed little power and a .665 OPS.

Smith was number 13 on BA's Reds list last year and was pitching pretty well at AA when injured this year. He's still only 23.

I don't think this is particularly close. Smith.

P.S. The Reds may move Smith to the pen, but they did protect him on the 40 so they obviously think he is a quality prospect.

[princeton]

the tortoise or the tortoise?

I vote for the tortoise.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Rojas played at Dayton at age 20 last year and showed little power and a .665 OPS.

Smith was number 13 on BA's Reds list last year and was pitching pretty well at AA when injured this year. He's still only 23.

I don't think this is particularly close. Smith.

P.S. The Reds may move Smith to the pen, but they did protect him on the 40 so they obviously think he is a quality prospect.

At the same time Rojas was the only player on Daytons roster that the organization said "he must play every day". They also obviously think he is a quality prospect. At the plate the thing he is missing is power. His plate approach is there and he should hit for a solid average (.294 from May until the end of the season) while being a plus defensive shortstop. I will take my chances on that guy over a reliever who has no relief experience and saw his K rate go from solid to abysmal last year.

[icehole3]

what was Smith's injury?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the same time Rojas was the only player on Daytons roster that the organization said "he must play every day". They also obviously think he is a quality prospect. At the plate the thing he is missing is power. His plate approach is there and he should hit for a solid average (.294 from May until the end of the season) while being a plus defensive shortstop. I will take my chances on that guy over a reliever who has no relief experience and saw his K rate go from solid to abysmal last year.

I'll take my chances with a 23 year old pitcher with AA experience that BA said was the Reds number 13 prospect last year. I tend not to discount a guy too much because of one injured season.

The odds of a Low A ball shortstop with a .665 OPS amounting to a major league regular are pretty hefty. By comparison, Smith dominated High A ball in 2008, resulting in an early upgrade to AA.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I'll take my chances with a 23 year old pitcher with AA experience that BA said was the Reds number 13 prospect last year. I tend not to discount a guy too much because of one injured season.

The odds of a Low A ball shortstop with a .665 OPS amounting to a major league regular are pretty hefty.

Of course BA also ranked Smith #13 as a starter. Now that the organization is looking at him as a reliever his status is most certainly in the opposite direction even without the injury and lack of performance, no?

Rojas just needs to add a little more pop. He probably won't ever hit 10 HR's in a season, but if he can hit 25 doubles and 5 HR he can probably start every day and provide good value as long his plate discipline remains similar to what its at now. Here is what I projected him out at with some quick math if he can add just a little pop over the next few years:

PA  AB   H   2B	3B  HR  BB  K	SH  SF  HBP  AVG  OBP  SLG BABIP
600 542 155  25	 5  5   40  50	10  3    5  .286 .339 .378  .306

If he can come close to that offensive line, and I believe he can, then he will be plenty valuable given how good his defense is.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If he can come close to that offensive line, and I believe he can, then he will be plenty valuable given how good his defense is.

Project as you wish, but Low A Midwest League tends to be a good place to hit and Rojas was at .665 OPS. At Billings in 2008, Rojas hit .183 BA in 228 plate appearances.

And you and I have very different views of relief pitchers. If Smith winds up in the pen, he'll be an asset there with his ground ball tendencies, few walks allowed, and low WHIP. And he'll eat innings too as a former starter, if that's what happens.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Project as you wish, but Low A Midwest League tends to be a good place to hit and Rojas was at .665 OPS. At Billings in 2008, Rojas hit .183 BA in 228 plate appearances.

And you and I have very different views of relief pitchers. If Smith winds up in the pen, he'll be an asset there with his ground ball tendencies, few walks allowed, and low WHIP. And he'll eat innings too as a former starter, if that's what happens.

Me thinks you are mistaken if you believe the Midwest League is a good place to hit. The Midwest League is considered a pitchers league. The league average line last season was .259/.329/.373 (.256/.322/.371 the year before) with an average hitter age of 21.6. Rojas had a terrible April, but made big adjustments and hit .294/.350/.368 from May through the end of the year. The average 20 year old hit .251/.321/.361 last season in the MWL.

Rojas sucked in 2008 at the plate. He also drastically strikeout rate that he almost cut in half, while also slightly improving his walk rate. Like noted in my previous post, if his plate discipline stays similar to what it was this year, he will be fine if he can add just a little more pop moving forward which isn't difficult to see as right now he is a 20 year old that weighs 160 pounds.