Winter Ball '09-'10.

[corkedbat]

I'm just guesing like everybody else. I think they end up liking his D and end up runng he, Dickerson, Stubbs and Balentein out in LF & CF in differing combinations.

Unless Francisco has a huge ST I think he plays his LF in AAA to start. It all comes down to ST and who shows the best. LF could be Frazier, Nix or Dorn too. We're talking the Reds here so it could enx up being Nix full time, but all things being equal I would go with the kids (same for WT.

Then again, if the Byrd rumors are to believed, there's a good chance that the FO is still in the hunt for their Opening Day LFer. I would consider it a monsterous mistake, but if FA prices go into freefall it wouldn't shock me a bit to see Jermaine Dye standing out there come the first week of April.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Any discussion of line up contruction that must factor in the pretzel that is Dusty's baseball brain.

1) That means that you have to think an OF (probably either Heisey or Stubbs) in the leadoff spot

2) MI here (if only SS in the two-hole were a Redszone myth/exaggeration). I'd bat Heisey here after Stubbs (given my projected lineup) or maybe better yet Phillips after Heisey. Since Dusty's brain is in the equation, Janish is most likely the man (Brandon Hits cleanup). Walt acquiring a young SS who can get on base would make things much tidier here.

3) Votto.

4) Phiilips

5 & 6) Dusty does like a L/R/L/R or R/L/R/L staggering his middle order batters depending on whether a LH or RH pitcher is starting. That would mean Rolen in the fifth hole and Bruce sixth vs. LHers and reversed vs. RHers. Rolen's "Veteranocity" may lend Dusty to bat him 5th and Bruce 6th full time.

7 & 8) Depends on whether an OF or SS is batting 2nd and who's catching. If an OF happens to hit 2nd, Catcher his 7th & SS hits 8th. If Janish hits 2nd, OF hits 7th & C hits 8th.

I really don't see Francisco, Alonso or Votto for that matter as options to start the year. I do think Jocketty has shown a "defense counts" determination and beleives that holds in LF (might also somewhat explain the Marlon Byrd flirtation).

I think Francisco will have to prove himself defensively in LF at Lousiville for a month or two before they send him out there full time for the Reds (could well be wrong). Offensively, I'm not a huge Heisey fanboy, but I think his OBP, consistency and defense make him a better fit to start in LF (at least initially). I went into my thoughts on JF in depth on an ORG thread.

Walt could stir the pot with an acquisition in LF or SS, but as it now stands, this would be my guess.

Mine too and it has 75 wins written all over it.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by mth123

Mine too and it has 75 wins written all over it.

Yup

[RedsManRick]

Doug, you do have a bit of selection bias in your Fransisco comp list since you started with a group who performed poorly K/BB wise in the majors. There may be players in the same range of minor league performance who DID improve in the majors and thus never made your list to begin with.

If you just want to show that Fransisco is going to need to improve his K/BB to be a successful major leaguer, I think you've clearly shown that. But the real question is whether or not he's likely to improve. Given that question, who are his comps through today -- and where did they end up? The minor league performance should be your starting point.

So for me, the more interesting list would be those minor leaguers with career minor league K/BB of 4.0+ and ISO of .200+ through age 22 with at least 1000 AB. What has happened to those players? How many even accrued significant major league time? How did they perform?

[mace]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Doug, you do have a bit of selection bias in your Fransisco comp list since you started with a group who performed poorly K/BB wise in the majors. There may be players in the same range of minor league performance who DID improve in the majors and thus never made your list to begin with.

If you just want to show that Fransisco is going to need to improve his K/BB to be a successful major leaguer, I think you've clearly shown that. But the real question is whether or not he's likely to improve. Given that question, who are his comps through today -- and where did they end up? The minor league performance should be your starting point.

So for me, the more interesting list would be those minor leaguers with career minor league K/BB of 4.0+ and ISO of .200+ through age 22 with at least 1000 AB. What has happened to those players? How many even accrued significant major league time? How did they perform?

Agreed. And a key finding, after that, would be to determine if any of the comps improved their OPS every season and every level, as Francisco has. To me, that's his separator.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Doug, you do have a bit of selection bias in your Fransisco comp list since you started with a group who performed poorly K/BB wise in the majors. There may be players in the same range of minor league performance who DID improve in the majors and thus never made your list to begin with.

If you just want to show that Fransisco is going to need to improve his K/BB to be a successful major leaguer, I think you've clearly shown that. But the real question is whether or not he's likely to improve. Given that question, who are his comps through today -- and where did they end up? The minor league performance should be your starting point.

So for me, the more interesting list would be those minor leaguers with career minor league K/BB of 4.0+ and ISO of .200+ through age 22 with at least 1000 AB. What has happened to those players? How many even accrued significant major league time? How did they perform?

There is some bias of course Rick. Unfortunately I don't have a minor league database that is as deep as that and even the one I do have is single seasons and not careers unfortunately. So I went on what I could since I do have the database for major leaguers.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

Heisey minor league career splits:

VS LH .344/.419/.510/.929
VS RH .286/.356/.445/.801

Not sure he'll be the threat this team needs vs. RH

in 2009:

vs LH .362/.454/.567/1.021
vs RH .305/.364/.510/.874

unless he's the elite guy that 2009 suggests.

I guess I'm skeptical.

Guys don't have to be .850 or .900 OPS types to contribute solidly and I'm not intimating he will be an elite bat vs. them but combining his entire game I see him as a guy who will contribute solidly to beat RHP. There are guys who will not contribute much at all in this manner but I feel confident he will do fine. Granted it doesn't really change that we would be wise to add another solid LHH but we probably won't so we need to make the most of what we have. And IMO it's the following.

vs. RHP
Dickerson CF
Heisey LF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Hernandez/Hanny C
Cozart SS

And at times
Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Nix LF
Hernandez/Hanny C
Cozart SS

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Guys don't have to be .850 or .900 OPS types to contribute solidly and I'm not intimating he will be an elite bat vs. them but combining his entire game I see him as a guy who will contribute solidly to beat RHP. There are guys who will not contribute much at all in this manner but I feel confident he will do fine. Granted it doesn't really change that we would be wise to add another solid LHH but we probably won't so we need to make the most of what we have. And IMO it's the following.

vs. RHP
Dickerson CF
Heisey LF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Hernandez/Hanny C
Cozart SS

And at times
Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Nix LF
Hernandez/Hanny C
Cozart SS

But its not enough on this team. You have two good bats in Votto and I think eventually Bruce, CF looks to be tablesetter types, 2B and 3B are manned by guys with big splits who will barely be adequate against RHP (which is most of the time). Catcher and SS are both negatives. This team can't afford an .800 to .820 OPS in LF under those conditions. It needs another .900 OPS monster who can slug near .500 against RHP. None of the in house options really seem capable and the team simply won't score enough runs to win more than 75 games unless something better is brought in. Guys like Heisey and Frazier can have nice careers hitting 6th or 7th on teams that have some significant offense elsewhere. If the team had Chase Utley or A-Rod manning a spot to provide offense elsewhere, it wouldn't need such a big bat in LF, but as it looks now, I don't see the team having enough and LF is the most likely place to get the added offense and not enough will come from Heisey on a full time basis.

Personally, I'd be shopping Stubbs and planning on a Heisey/Dickerson combo in CF. The defense may not be Stubbs' caliber, but it would be more than adequate and the offense could be a real plus. Meanwhile, Stubbs splashy debut would allow the Reds to sell high and IMO he could headline a package to bring back another plus player for a different spot.

[Scrap Irony]

CF is one position (the other being C) I'd sacrifice some offense for the glove. Stubbs' glove is among the best two in baseball. Having only seen Gutierrez a handful of times all year in Seattle, I think Stubbs is the best I've seen in a long time at that position.

All last year, I insisted Heisey was just a notch below Stubbs defensively. I was wrong. He's several notches below. That said, he's better, IMO, than Dickerson was in CF while at Louisville and a possible Gold Glover in either LF or CF.

But Stubbs blows him out of the water.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

CF is one position (the other being C) I'd sacrifice some offense for the glove. Stubbs' glove is among the best two in baseball. Having only seen Gutierrez a handful of times all year in Seattle, I think Stubbs is the best I've seen in a long time at that position.

All last year, I insisted Heisey was just a notch below Stubbs defensively. I was wrong. He's several notches below. That said, he's better, IMO, than Dickerson was in CF while at Louisville and a possible Gold Glover in either LF or CF.

But Stubbs blows him out of the water.

Gary Pettis was a stellar defender who couldn't hit enough to stay in the line-up. Rick Manning was a guy with a top glove and promise that was mostly unfulfilled. Ken Berry was a stellar defender in CF who had a career OPS plus in the 90 range and was generally just a regular guy who was not a mainstay anyway. Guys who can play top defense in CF really aren't as rare as being made out here. I wouldn't want a poor defender in CF, but once the above average threshold is reached adding offense is more important than even more defense IMO.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

But its not enough on this team. You have two good bats in Votto and I think eventually Bruce, CF looks to be tablesetter types, 2B and 3B are manned by guys with big splits who will barely be adequate against RHP (which is most of the time). Catcher and SS are both negatives. This team can't afford an .800 to .820 OPS in LF under those conditions. It needs another .900 OPS monster who can slug near .500 against RHP. None of the in house options really seem capable and the team simply won't score enough runs to win more than 75 games unless something better is brought in. Guys like Heisey and Frazier can have nice careers hitting 6th or 7th on teams that have some significant offense elsewhere. If the team had Chase Utley or A-Rod manning a spot to provide offense elsewhere, it wouldn't need such a big bat in LF, but as it looks now, I don't see the team having enough and LF is the most likely place to get the added offense and not enough will come from Heisey on a full time basis.

Personally, I'd be shopping Stubbs and planning on a Heisey/Dickerson combo in CF. The defense may not be Stubbs' caliber, but it would be more than adequate and the offense could be a real plus. Meanwhile, Stubbs splashy debut would allow the Reds to sell high and IMO he could headline a package to bring back another plus player for a different spot.

And how many teams have 3 .900 OPS bats to begin with, let alone who also slug .500+ against RHP? Certainly few with a payroll in the 75 million range. I think maybe you are exaggerating the need for it, yes it would help make us legitimate contenders but you don't need it to make the playoffs IMO. But if you don't have that you need several spots capable of an .800 OPS, I think that's doable and far more realistic.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

And how many teams have 3 .900 OPS bats to begin with, let alone who also slug .500+ against RHP? Certainly few with a payroll in the 75 million range. I think maybe you are exaggerating the need for it, yes it would help make us legitimate contenders but you don't need it to make the playoffs IMO. But if you don't have that you need several spots capable of an .800 OPS, I think that's doable and far more realistic.

That is where we disagree. Against RHP Phillips and Rolen won't OPS .800. The catchers won't. Janish surely won't and if you look at Cozart's minor league splits, he won't against RHP. Stubbs never did as a minor leaguer and Dickerson might, but with all the other holes in the line-up unless its as a replacement for one of the others it won't be enough. Heisey also has some significant minor league splits but may be able to OPS .800 against RHP if last season is his skill level now and not simply a career year, but probaby not a lot more.

The problem I see is that barring a complete restructuring of the roster at multiple positions, this team will not have several spots who can OPS .800 against RHP. I see two (Bruce and Votto), maybe three if Dickerson or Heisey can eke out .800 versus RHP in LF. But no other spot looks capable and under those conditions the team needs more than that.

So is it eaier to get a bat who can platoon as a RHP killer in LF or replace several spots to get all those .800s your talking about? Your path seems a lot more difficult than resigning a Gomes or adding some one like Church or Pagan as a cheap platoon guy who brings exactly to the table what the team needs.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

That is where we disagree. Against RHP Phillips and Rolen won't OPS .800. The catchers won't. Janish surely won't and if you look at Cozart's minor league splits, he won't against RHP. Stubbs never did as a minor leaguer and Dickerson might, but with all the other holes in the line-up unless its as a replacement for one of the others it won't be enough. Heisey also has some significant minor league splits but may be able to OPS .800 against RHP if last season is his skill level now and not simply a career year, but probaby not a lot more.

The problem I see is that barring a complete restructuring of the roster at multiple positions, this team will not have several spots who can OPS .800 against RHP. I see two (Bruce and Votto), maybe three if Dickerson or Heisey can eke out .800 versus RHP in LF. But no other spot looks capable and under those conditions the team needs more than that.

So is it eaier to get a bat who can platoon as a RHP killer in LF or replace several spots to get all those .800s your talking about? Your path seems a lot more difficult than resigning a Gomes or adding some one like Church or Pagan as a cheap platoon guy who brings exactly to the table what the team needs.

Well I think we know what's likely to happen we are gonna have to rely on that to occur because I don't see said killer being added because the Reds seem to be looking to add just the opposite a LHP killer. But again I do think you are exaggerating the need for another big bat, Nix slugged .500 vs. RHP and OPSed .800 so he could certainly be a big help as well.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Well I think we know what's likely to happen we are gonna have to rely on that to occur because I don't see said killer being added because the Reds seem to be looking to add just the opposite a LHP killer. But again I do think you are exaggerating the need for another big bat, Nix slugged .500 vs. RHP and OPSed .800 so he could certainly be a big help as well.

Worth noting that Nix's .804 OPS against righties was achieved with an unspectacular BABIP of, IIRC, .274. Could easily be higher this year. I'm not urging status quo; I want to see Bruce, Votto, and Alonso's bats in the lineup ASAP; but I do think Nix's value as a platoon player is somewhat underappreciated by us.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Worth noting that Nix's .804 OPS against righties was achieved with an unspectacular BABIP of, IIRC, .274. Could easily be higher this year. I'm not urging status quo; I want to see Bruce, Votto, and Alonso's bats in the lineup ASAP; but I do think Nix's value as a platoon player is somewhat underappreciated by us.

Nix slugged very well against righties last year, evidenced by his .502 SLG% against them. But the guy is and always has been an out machine. .300 OBP against RHP and a .291 OBP overall in the best season of his career. Nice guy to have on your bench for sure but you have to know what you are getting if he's the LF platoon partner, meaning 400 plate appearances. You'll get good slugging and a very low OBP. This team could use more OBP, not less.